The Last Bus Problem

I read this article today titled, “The Last Bus Problem,” (https://boz.com/articles/bus-problem) basically comparing a large group of people trying to board the last bus of the day to a group of developers trying to cram lots of final updates into a major milestone or product release. There are always pain points in these major releases and any issue is amplified if the release goes poorly because the fix, or next bus, won’t be arriving for some time.

Conversely, buses that run throughout the day, or product releases that roll out often and incrementally, flow much smoother and any problem can be quickly mended by the arrival of the next bus or another quick product release/update. (Although this is not exactly what the author of the blog post was talking about, I think it still applies.)

This leads me to my main point, and a metric that is often discussed but not formally captured on this board - the pace of a company’s product release and rapid go to market strategy often correlates to long term success.

Cloudflare, Crowdstrike, Datadog, Sea Limited, Square, (pick your favorite company), continue to power forward each quarter due to their slew of product releases, partnerships, and acquisitions. These companies don’t sit idly by, but instead charge over their competition through constant forward progress.

My current favorite company, Cloudflare, exemplifies this rapid pace through multiple product release weeks throughout the year, most recently with their “Developer Week.” Cloudflare has released multiple products a day for well over a week, and I feel like I can just see their roots spreading far and wide into the major trends of the next decade - observability, privacy, security, speed, and reliability.

With earnings season again underway, I hope members here focus on some questions I’ve been asking myself when looking for confirmation on whether to buy, hold, or sell a position:

What products has this company released recently?
What partnerships have they announced?
Which companies have they acquired?
Are these actions important?

Thank you all for your engagement and contributions to this board, I’m excited to read your end of month summaries and breakdowns of new companies.

-R

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It sounded like you were just about to pitch JFrog, the “picks and shovels” for software updates.

Brian Feroldi and Dylan Lewis have covered it very well on two episodes of Industry Focus.

https://www.fool.com/quote/nasdaq/jfrog-ltd/frog/

It’s on sale at a 50% discount from the frothy highs of 2020.

Cramer said it is a screaming buy below $43, and it is not far from there.

I have a position.

And I’d already started a position in ZI last year, so it’s nice to see Saul climbing aboard in 2021.

Brian Feroldi and Dylan Lewis covered ZI on Industry Focus last year as well.

https://www.fool.com/quote/nasdaq/zoominfo-technologies/zi/

If either of those guys are talking about a company, it’s well worth your attention.

5 Likes

rafterkm,

I’m not sure whether the metrics that you suggest are valid or not, but I do suggest that they are not relevant to the “last bus problem”. You state product releases that roll out often and incrementally, flow much smoother and any problem can be quickly mended by the arrival of the next bus or another quick product release/update. I agree with this.

However, you then extrapolate that with companies that continue to power forward each quarter due to their slew of product releases, partnerships, and acquisitions…through multiple product release weeks throughout the year. You are confusing product version releases (updates) with new product releases.

The problem is that new product releases, partnerships, and acquisitions have nothing to do with mending existing product problems. Quick releases to fix problems are not highlighted during product release weeks, which are used to introduce new products or features.

To go back to your bus analogy, I would compare product release weeks as trying to fix the problem of people missing the bus by introducing new routes to new destinations (product releases), by partnering with an airport shuttle service (partnerships), or by acquiring another bus company with complementary routes. None of these help the poor people stranded at the bus stop. :slight_smile:

So, while I agree that a company with a rapid product version release cycle is a good thing, I don’t think the questions that you suggest address this characteristic.

Bruce

12 Likes

To learn more on this topic, put this into a Google search (including the quotes):
“continuous integration” “continuous deployment”
CI/CD is the Industry abbreviation.

1 Like

To learn more on this topic, put this into a Google search (including the quotes):
“continuous integration” “continuous deployment”

Enough on this thread as it is really Off-Topic for this board. Our board is for analyzing individual growth companies.
Thanks for your cooperation.
Saul

14 Likes