Saul, at the current price, would you tell someone to create a position with Coupa or at its current levels to hold off for a dip in price?
I’m not Saul but I would love to play him on TV…but David Gardner would say a couple things regarding this inquiry and I paraphrase:
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Be more comfortable adding to winners and letting winners run and be more inclined to buy near the 52-week high vs. the 52-week low,
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/05/31/the-best-investing… -
[From a podcast in '19]; dips buy on the dips…don’t be a dip: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/06/18/why-smart-investor…
Regarding COUP; I opened a starter position in March '18 at $44.09.
Between March 02, 2018 and January 13, 2020 I added at the following times at the following price points:
03/02/18 $44.09
04/26/18 $48.53
05/14/18 $54.41
07/19/18 $65.55
12/17/18 $60.83
02/01/19 $89.63
06/03/19 $101.81
06/07/19 $120.55
08/07/19 $133.47
01/13/20 $174.10
With the exception of the Dec. '18 pullback; I just added to the winner and let the winner run. Each entry point, with the exception of Dec. '18 was at a higher price than the last.
I stated in previous emails that I have a large portfolio (60 companies); however, with the “add to the winners” philosophy, I end up with a portfolio where:
- The 30 largest positions in the portfolio account for 69.69% of assets and 81.61% of the gain,
- The lower tier (30 smaller positions) account for 30% of the assets and 20% of the gain.
Its almost deductively valid that I should just sell off the smaller 30 positions and roll that into my 10 highest conviction positions for now. With the idea that I too would like to get to a more concentrated portfolio with the caveat that I don’t think that would ever be as concentrated as 8-12 companies…maybe more like 20 for me.
Harley