The Market is a strange beast - continued

For those of you who had worried that they might as well give up on good growth stocks, and invest in the indexes or the IJS instead, I wrote after the first 3 days of this years market that having made only 2.5% all last year, and being beaten by the S&P and the Russell 2000, this year was different.

I was up 4.0%
The S&P was up 1.3%
The Russell was up 1.1%

Well now we are two weeks into this glorious new market, and

I have gained 2.1% more and am now up 6.1%
The S&P has gained all of 0.3% more since I last wrote, and is now up 1.6%
The Russell hasn’t gained anything at all since I last wrote and is still up 1.1%.
The IJS is flat on the year and has gained nothing, not a tenth of a percent.

Don’t give up on good growth stocks yet!

Best do you all and may you all have a successful year in the market.

Saul

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I’m up a mere 3.3% overall this year, but I have one IRA which is up 27.8% after more than doubling last year. Admittedly, this is one which had been beaten down earlier so it had some recovering to do, but it is now as high as it has ever been.

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As of today’s close, I am up 5.16%

Frank

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2016 was a banner year for small caps, growth and value. IJS blew away all other indices by a mile – It was up 31% for the year.

I don’t expect IJS to continue this torrid pace. It will probably spend 2017 digesting its 31% move.

The FDN index ETF mirrors the performance of the FANG stocks. It had a miserable year in 2016, rising barely 6%. It is due for a pop. You cannot keep AMZN, FB, GOOGL and NFLX down for long.

Don’t over-think it. Making money in stocks is easy.

#6

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OK,I’ll join in the counting of chickens before they’re hatched:

• Since Jan 1, I’m up 4.8%
• Since Dec 1, 2016, I’m up 10.3%

The above not counting still open options, so it’s possible that I could end up with less than the above if I buy to close out my short puts.

Overall, my accounts suffered quite a bit more than the market in Jan&Feb of 2016, but I’m benefitting more than the market now. I’m comfortable with that since my investments are almost all based on long-term prospect analyses.

So, while I didn’t panic 11 months ago, I’m also not rejoicing today.

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“The FDN index ETF mirrors the performance of the FANG stocks. It had a miserable year in 2016, rising barely 6%. It is due for a pop. You cannot keep AMZN, FB, GOOGL and NFLX down for long.”

UR#6 it is an interesting observation. I just superimposed the two week graphs of the FANG stocks on each other and except for minor differences they are almost superimposable. I was thinking there would be a pullback in those stocks so that I could accumulate a little more of the ones I hold but if indeed toy are right they will possibly rally briskly from here.

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OK,I’ll join in the counting of chickens before they’re hatched:

• Since Jan 1, I’m up 4.8%
Well it may not be that premature - as the old adage goes where goes January there goes the year and we are half way thru January.
Ant

as the old adage goes where goes January there goes the year

Like 2016?

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I just superimposed the two week graphs of the FANG stocks on each other and except for minor differences they are almost superimposable.

You mean the FANG stocks move in tandem? That is interesting. I did not notice that. One possible explanation is that more and more money goes into ETFs and sector funds as opposed to picking individual stocks. That makes sectors move as one.

#6

You mean the FANG stocks move in tandem?

Here is a one year FANG overlay vs. S&P 500.

http://softwaretimes.com/pics/fang-overlay.gif

Not much unison there!

Denny Schlesinger

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I specifically mentioned the TWO WEEK charts were in relative unison. This was in response to #6’s thought that the FDN Index which was largely representing the FANG stocks had an tepid 2016 but was due for a pop and was taking off in 2016. If that is true and that it is a sector rotation it could mean that the already pricey FANG stocks could take another run at new high’s

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Like 2016?

Except that 2016 was US election year the rule that stocks always goes up in election year trumps the January rule by removing uncertainty.

A

Removing uncertainty? That certainly doesn’t gibe with my memory of 2016…

Well it’s all relative mate - I don’t make the rules. Before November you didn’t know who was going to be President - now you know as well as most of the appointments. The important point is the sky didn’t fall in the day after the election which is the market’s usual irrational uncertainty - what the President Elect intends is almost irrelevant to the market psychology. Agreed though - Trump represents an unconventional president with a lot of unknowns but that’s not really what they market is worried about - the market would have rallied (as it almost always does) no matter who won just because the sky didn’t cave in.
Ant

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Great start to the year folks. I am only just over 1% up here, but better than a kick in the butt. Keep up the good work!

I am only just over 1% up here, but better than a kick in the butt.

1% in two weeks is 28% annualized. Professionals would kill for that kind of returns.

Unless you take your profit or your loss a two week return is totally irrelevant in the real world. It’s noise.

Denny Schlesinger