I think the next March-like market crash (or likely much worse) will come when everyone starts to wake up to the fact that all this back-to-business re-opening is coming far too soon, CV19 cases spike to levels not seen yet, and deaths at the 200,000 level in the US look inevitable.
If this crisis is going to push us into the next 2008-type recession or 1929-type depression, that’s the trigger that’s going to make that happen.
What do you all think?
Eric in NH (whose prognostications about the stock market are almost always wrong…)
I think the next March-like market crash (or likely much worse) will come when everyone starts to wake up to the fact that all this back-to-business re-opening is coming far too soon, CV19 cases spike to levels not seen yet, and deaths at the 200,000 level in the US look inevitable.
enph
I have been thinking (worrying?) about this a great deal. Based on news reports from around the world and observations about behaviors here in Florida I surmise that most people who haven’'t encountered COVID in some fashion have no idea what it is. They certainly do not perceive the dangers or the damages.
Today there are several reports of accelerating numbers of cases in rural areas and none of them are prepared.
We haven’t the measurement and monitoring tools to know what’s really out there.
Yes deaths may get to the 200K level. Hopefully not higher. Back to business will become back to the drawing board. Markets will drop again.
Will they crash? Will they recover?I don’t see a crash like the one we had because in spite of the numbers commerce will go on just not at the levels some would hope for. Certain industries will be devastated (destroyed?) The future of some forms of retail for example is fraught with danger. E commerce will replace it.
Cloud services, e-commerce and .electronic communications will obviously get a boost from all this .Cloud services and SaaS will go thru the roof.
At the same time I expect the Fed, the Treasury and Congress (eventually) to take whatever steps are needed to keep things going if not booming. So I expect we will muddle along until a vaccine appears. No one knows how long that will take. So the market will move along at a sedate pace up and down and perhaps stagnate until there is either herd immunity or a vaccine,
I think you are correct. The worst is yet to come. Probably a full-blown depression. Of course, my crystal ball sometimes has the Eye of Sauron in it, so take that for what it’s worth.
So the key question to ask is where should you have your money invested? Which is on-topic for this board (where the macro economic question isn’t…they’re pretty strict about that here; you should read the rules of the board in the right-side panel links). Saul and this board believe it is in software, specifically SaaS (software as a service). I’m still fairly new to this board, so have not delved into all the stocks they discuss yet. But look back at earlier posts and you’ll find very detailed analyses of several of them.
Presently I’m intrigued by AYX, but don’t know enough about them to ask intelligent questions. They provide data analytics, from marketing to sales to real estate, and even (apparently) cater to students. I haven’t really wrapped my head around this business given all that they claim they can do. Could they survive a depression? Possibly. Businesses and people will need data, and to have that data analyzed, so they can further their interests. I don’t think that is a service that could easily be discontinued by their customers in the 21st century. But, again, I’ve only scratched the surface so far.
I think you all are worrying over things you have no control over nor can you possibly guess what the outcome will be. Just look at what happened with people trying to guess by jumping out of the market, others pulling partially out of the market, and those that just kept their eyes on the business’s they are investing in. Who came out ahead in all of this? Those that kept their eyes on the business’s.
Nobody knows what the government will do and how much money they will push into the market. Keep your eyes on the business’s you are invested in and do not listen to all the other noise.
Your comments are too general and do not map out why you came to the conclusion that you did. For all I know, your thoughts are based on something you heard on CNN or you just have a hunch.