the Putin factor - stock impacts?

We already had inflation/Fed problems that led to this stock collapse.
Blaming Putin is a non-starter.

However, we now have the sanctions-effects of Ukraine war and will they effect our stocks?
Europe could get hit hard - impact to GLBE? What about TTD?
Inflation run amok impacts consumers and small businesses hard - impact to SHOP and therefore GLBE? What about DOCN?

DOCN has moved down on my conviction, as they were never a leader in their space and I think SMB may have a tough year.
GLBE may have some headwinds, but broad enough that I don’t think momentum is stopped in its tracks, and I do view them as a leader though.

UPST? Not sure. Will consumers borrow more or less. Will a (likely) rising default rate affect them? Less cars being bought, so less loans? Hard to say.

Just thinking out loud.
What say you folks…any practical impacts on our stocks?


About two weeks ago, after reading some of your posts (and seeing my daily losses), I sold all my stocks.
Even the high conviction ones like NVDA and FTNT.
It wasn´t easy, but it was a good move, so I owe you one.

Following the sell off in March 2020, my portfolio hit an ATH in February 2021 (when it almost quadrupled). Although the decline took one year, that doesn´t mean that it wasn´t steep.

Blaming Putin is here to stay, because it´s convenient and it covers all the mistakes made by a lot of (European) governments in the last couple of years.

I have no ideea if SHOP or TTD will outperform DDOG or ZS, but I don´t think that many of these stocks will hit their old ATH in the near future.

IMO buying stocks right now looks like gambling.

OT: In the weekend I rewatched two wonderful older movies “The Mountain Between Us” (with Idris Elba) and “The Gentlemen” (with Matthew McConaughey).

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We might be getting near a bottom, at least for some stocks. This may be a key week.

The distress on Saul board is a good sign we may be close, too.

I am sneaking back in where i can. Just less likely to chase the still-expensive stocks.




I think you articulated the risks in these companies pretty well. I don’t have much to add to these specific companies…I’m long GLBE & UPST and I think that recession hits UPST harder than GLBE. Not because UPST is inferior, but GLBE can process many more transactions based on the value of those transactions being generally less than UPST loans. I put BILL in the same camp as GLBE; that is, if small businesses in a recession have sufficient funds and business to warrant a subscription. Similarly, is there enough business goin on to justify MNDY collaboration in a recession?

Given your attention to valuations, I came across this set of tweets that tends to support your thesis as it relates to 2000 and today. Lessons 5 and 6 seem appropriate here. There are charts with each tweet.…

"7/ LESSON #5: Most large cap tech stocks in the bubble had real businesses with strong fundamentals

The internet stocks were a sideshow. In 2000, the software sector had a $1 trillion market cap, 20% net margins, 20% annual growth

The problem? It was trading at 16x sales


"8/ LESSON #6: Fundamentals follow price, not vice versa

The bubble popped in Q1 2000. Fundamentals didn’t decelerate until Q4 2000.

It was reflexivity at work. Lower stock prices = less capex spend = less revenue growth = lower stock prices. A vicious cycle."

As much as I wish I had less exposure to some of the stocks I hold, I can’t seem to do anything other than hunker down (i.e. Champ). I’m not fully invested, as I have about 1/3 cash. However, next year I start drawing on my accounts for income, which adds a degree of angst!

I also think of the Putin effect on security and observability companies…I hold DDOG, ZS, S, SNOW, NET. My thought is that companies ought to feel the need to have products offered by these companies and pay for them early in the budget…of course your position is probably they are still too expensive regardless of how their business is doing and prices will contract because of those valuation. You are probably correct.



Hey 5,
I sure hope we dont have a prolonged grind like dotcom bust.

Some people think our current bubble started bursting in Feb 2021, so it has already been a year. For others it feels like Nov 2021 was the start.

It may simply be that ddog net nvda zs and others have done so well since may 2021 dip bottom that Feb 2021 didnt seem like any kind of bubble popping.

If it was Feb, that is good, as it means a year has gone by.

On other hand, maybe this just isnt over until all the more stubborn rich valuations reset further.

I just dont know.


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However, we now have the sanctions-effects of Ukraine war and will they effect our stocks

Sanctions just another factor. And the effects can be (should be) categorized as “this week”, “this quarter”, 2025… This week and this quarter cannot be analyzed by data or logic. It is all narrative. It is what everybody knows that everybody knows. Nothing to do with “truth” of economic impact. Now, 2025, that is another matter. The use of sanctions more widely, as is happening or being threatened, is going to accelerate the demise of $U.S. dominance of transactions. Much more motivation to create alternate schemes/methods to facilitate transactions. But 2025 and beyond is not of interest to us, right? Sanctions are just another layer of uncertainty on top of all the others you already mentioned. It is all halo-halo.

But, none of this has stopped my market activity. I put in an order for UPST at $88.88 (scientific methodology to determine that price) and I tossed a few dollars at VERI (from Saul’s), just because. I also received a blast from the past, a price alert for NOAH. It hit $20. This was from 2017 or so, near the end of the 1yrPEG over at Saul’s. Came up on my screener. It is a wealth management firm operating from somewhere, providing these service for Chinese. Went up to $65 in 2018. Don’t think I’ll buy :slight_smile:


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“and I tossed a few dollars at VERI (from Saul’s), just because.”

And also just because, VERI is up 16% in the pre-market.

And also just because, VERI is up 16% in the pre-market.

Should’a backed up the truck. Very small market cap, $500 million. The boys and girls at Saul’s maybe moving the market. Take profit? Check market. Gone. Someone bought in very thinly traded stock premarket and just lost 15%. I’m up 1.16%. :slight_smile:


Nice opening. Didn’t last even 10 minutes. Getting another buying opportunity in UPST. Time for a good 'til limit order at $78 or $79? Maybe $77.77.

Fear/Greed index up to 17.


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