The Real Brake on US EV Revolution

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
#13

Facts:

“The U.S. holds almost eight million metric tons of lithium in reserve, ranking it among the top five countries in the world, but only 1% of global lithium is currently sourced from the U.S., the report said.”

"In June 2021, the Biden Administration issued a National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries to address the supply issue. It called for increased domestic processing of raw materials, as well as more manufacturing infrastructure for battery cells and packs, and recycling infrastructure.

However, right now there is only one operating U.S. lithium mine, in Silver Peak, Nevada. Plans to open additional mines have been discussed, but they face opposition from environmentalists and local residents."

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1134775_lithium-is-esse….

There is ZERO lithium processing in the USA and likely plans to develop it are at least 5 years and probably 10 before any processing actually starts after the factory/lab is built. Meanwhile, China will be 1000x ahead.

t

#14

“Like these so-called “fossil fuel” industries, mining for lithium is an extractive industry whose activities inevitably have impacts on the environment. Interestingly, the technologies and processing methods sound quite a bit like those deployed in the coal mining and oil drilling/fracking businesses.”

As the Wall Street Journal describes it, the extraction and processing of lithium can be a “messy process.” After describing an extraction process that is very similar to drilling for oil - a process that involves boring holes hundreds of feet into the ground and inserting tubes to facilitate the recovery of the minerals, the Journal then turns to the method of processing the ore:

"So long as it hasn’t taken place on a large scale in our own backyards, America’s environmentalist movement has thus far been able to largely ignore the environmental impacts of lithium mining happening in far off places like Australia, South America, Africa and China.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2021/03/16/rising…

All sorts of chemicals used to refine it - heat, sulfuric acid, toxic waste water…and of course, a lot of NIMBY from activists.

It often takes 20 years for a ‘mineral mine’ to get all the necessary permits to go from plan A to actual production.

t

#15

Hey t,

I brought Silver Peak, NV up on google maps. I cannot tell for the life of me what the heck I’m looking at!! I looks like a bunch of man-made lake-type structures with a tiny town next to it - and it’s out in the boondocks too.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Silver+Peak,+NV+89047/@37…

'38Packard

#16

<i."Like these so-called “fossil fuel” industries, mining for lithium is an extractive industry whose activities inevitably have impacts on the environment. Interestingly, the technologies and processing methods sound quite a bit like those deployed in the coal mining and oil drilling/fracking businesses."

As the Wall Street Journal describes it, the extraction and processing of lithium can be a “messy process.” After describing an extraction process that is very similar to drilling for oil - a process that involves boring holes hundreds of feet into the ground and inserting tubes to facilitate the recovery of the minerals, the Journal then turns to the method of processing the ore:

"So long as it hasn’t taken place on a large scale in our own backyards, America’s environmentalist movement has thus far been able to largely ignore the environmental impacts of lithium mining happening in far off places like Australia, South America, Africa and China.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2021/03/16/rising……

All sorts of chemicals used to refine it - heat, sulfuric acid, toxic waste water…and of course, a lot of NIMBY from activists.

It often takes 20 years for a ‘mineral mine’ to get all the necessary permits to go from plan A to actual production.

^ The Forbes author clearly has no idea what he’s talking about. There are two basic ways lithium is extracted. One is you mine it from lithium bearing rock. Processing the ore is indeed messy and requires sulfuric acid, etc. That’s the processes used in Australia, although much of the processing occurs in China.

The other way does involve drilling, and involves drilling down to saline groundwater with high concentrations of lithium. The brine is pumped to the surface and the water is evaporated in ponds, then the resulting minerals are purified. That’s how most lithium in South America is produced. This guy is saying you drill for the ore…which is an absurd statement. He’s mixing up two completely different processes. You mine ore, you drill for brine.

Then he concludes his article by saying lithium mining will face the same challenges as the oil drilling industry. That doesn’t sound all that tough.

11 Likes
#17

Sitting at the Salton Sea for several years now has been a thermal electric plant which had been treating lithium as waste and had been pumping it back into the ground. Now that it is worth its weight in gold they are now processing it on site. There are already permits in place and construction has now begun on a new plant with the first new well having been drilled as they are starting the second well of an planned total of one hundred.

So it is full steam ahead on a lithium supply that is estimated to fill the world supply for the next decade. More like 20 MONTHS not 20 years.

OTFoolish

P.S. All done with NO pollution using self-generated electricity!!!

2 Likes
#18

I brought Silver Peak, NV up on google maps. I cannot tell for the life of me what the heck I’m looking at!! I looks like a bunch of man-made lake-type structures with a tiny town next to it - and it’s out in the boondocks too.

The article was somewhat incorrect. That’s not a mine. They are extracting lithium from groundwater brine. The lakes are the evaporation ponds.

4 Likes
#19

Tesla patent reveals Elon Musk’s ‘table salt’ lithium extraction process that could slash costs

Tesla has applied for a new patent that is revealing the lithium extraction process that Elon Musk vaguely described as “using table salt to basically extract lithium from ore” during Tesla’s Battery Day last year.

It could cut costs by more than 30%, according to the automaker.

During Tesla’s Battery Day last year, the automaker unveiled a lot of new technologies that it couldn’t spend a lot of time explaining.

One of those was that Tesla has developed a new lithium extraction process that Drew Baglino, SVP of engineering at Tesla, claimed would “result in a 33% reduction in lithium cost.“

https://electrek.co/2021/07/09/tesla-patent-reveals-elon-mus…

The Captain

4 Likes
#20

Then he concludes his article by saying lithium mining will face the same challenges as the oil drilling industry.

==============================================================

What else do you expect an oil and gas guy to say about lithium. He is biased and wants to brand lithium as dirty. Here is his bio:

David Blackmon is an independent energy analyst/consultant based in Mansfield, TX. He is the Editor of Shale Magazine and co-host of In The Oil Patch Radio, a nationally-syndicated weekly show. David has enjoyed a 40-year career in the oil and gas industry, the last 23 years of which were spent in the public policy arena, managing regulatory and legislative issues for various companies, including Burlington Resources, Shell, El Paso Corporation, FTI Consulting and LINN Energy.

Jaak

2 Likes
#21

There is ZERO lithium processing in the USA and likely plans to develop it are at least 5 years and probably 10 before any processing actually starts after the factory/lab is built. Meanwhile, China will be 1000x ahead.

The Thacker Pass mine in Nevada has completed the EIS process and anticipates it will begin mining and onsite processing this year. The Salton Sea project we discussed earlier is supposed to begin production in 2025. There is another large scale mine in Nevada that is in the EIS process right now. So probably about two-three years out. There are a few more in various stages of planning, some on private land which is simpler to permit.

Yes, these things take time. But it isn’t like somebody woke up in a sweat yesterday and realized there will be a future need for lithium. People have been working on this for years already.

2 Likes
#22

" The brine is pumped to the surface and the water is evaporated in ponds, then the resulting minerals are purified. That’s how most lithium in South America is produced. This guy is saying you drill for the ore…which is an absurd statement. He’s mixing up two completely different processes. You mine ore, you drill for brine."

Well, likely you have more than two wells…and pipe…and of course, large open lagoons filled with toxic waste just waiting for birds to land there and die. those large open lagoons, unless in the alticama desert with 0% humidity, will sit there for months as water evaporates (or settles back into the ground polluting it). then the pond residue, after the winds have blown some of the toxic material toward the nearby cities, is gathered. It is not ready to make batteries.

Like South America, the residue, containing Li carbonate and a bunch of other toxic material, is shipped to China for a messy refining process to get 99.999% pure Li so your batteries work. Then they make the ‘cells’ and ship to the USA battery factories who assemble the cells into batteries.

t.

1 Like
#23

OTF:" Now that it is worth its weight in gold they are now processing it on site."

In 2020, the average price of a battery-grade lithium carbonate was an estimated 8,000 U.S. dollars per metric ton. "

The cost of gold is currently (per Troy pound) U.S. dollars (USD) 22,013:

A TON of gold is worth multi multi-millions…

It’s not exactly ‘worth it’s weight in gold’ and likely never will be

t.

3 Likes
#24

skye:“Yes, these things take time. But it isn’t like somebody woke up in a sweat yesterday and realized there will be a future need for lithium. People have been working on this for years already.”

Yes, the Chinese have been building mega refineries, producing mega tons of Li, and produce the majority of ‘cells’ for batteries in the world. They are spending tens of billions buying up Li mines around the world and have a lock on at least half the world’s current production of Li2CO3 - lithium carbonate. They are spending tens of billions on refineries and intend to be the world leader in this technology.

They are also spending 100 billion on autonomous cars and systems and advanced EVs. That’s government money. Each year.

"The best estimate is around 160 g of Li metal in the battery per kWh of battery, or if you prefer, about 850 g of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in the battery per kWh. "

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehic…

The US will need to produce a billion pounds of the stuff a year to keep up with US needs for EVs. Each car takes tens and tens of pounds of Li2CO3 to make. Like 80 to 100 lb. or more. That for a ‘small battery’ car.

Those 18 wheelers will take a ton of it …for each…

t.

1 Like
#25

Well, likely you have more than two wells…and pipe…and of course, large open lagoons filled with toxic waste just waiting for birds to land there and die. those large open lagoons, unless in the alticama desert with 0% humidity, will sit there for months as water evaporates (or settles back into the ground polluting it). then the pond residue, after the winds have blown some of the toxic material toward the nearby cities, is gathered. It is not ready to make batteries.

Okay, but only a person who has no idea what they are talking about would describe that process as “mining.” It isn’t mining so why falsely claim that it is?

2 Likes
#26

Yes, the Chinese have been building mega refineries, producing mega tons of Li, and produce the majority of ‘cells’ for batteries in the world. They are spending tens of billions buying up Li mines around the world and have a lock on at least half the world’s current production of Li2CO3 - lithium carbonate. They are spending tens of billions on refineries and intend to be the world leader in this technology.

Okay, but only a person who has no idea what they are talking about would claim the any US processing or mining is 5 to 10 years out. There are mining and processing projects in the United States projected to come online within 0-3 years.

So why falsely claim they don’t exist?

4 Likes
#27

“It isn’t mining so why falsely claim that it is?”

You’re extracting minerals from the ground.

From Wiki:

"Mining is the extraction of valuable minerals or other geological materials from the Earth, usually from an ore body, lode, vein, seam, reef, or placer deposit.

Ores recovered by mining include metals, coal, oil shale, gemstones, limestone, chalk, dimension stone, rock salt, potash, gravel, and clay. Modern mining processes involve prospecting for ore bodies, analysis of the profit potential of a proposed mine, extraction of the desired materials, and final reclamation of the land after the mine is closed.[1]

Mining operations usually create a negative environmental impact, both during the mining activity and after the mine has closed"

There are ‘salt mines’ in the salt domes in LA - and once the salt is removed, the big caverns are sometimes used for natural gas storage.

Many cities were founded on ‘salt mines’ where salt was removed, either by digging the stuff out by hand/machine, or using hot water to bring the salt up as brine. Places like Syracuse NY dug millions of pounds of salt out of the ground - it was ‘their industry’. Salzburg Austria had working salt mines for 1,000 years. Ever heard of Timbuktu? It’s claim to fame were salt deposits, mined and transported all over Africa - when salt was extremely valuable as a commodity.

Yeah, a lithium mine using brine is a mine. Regulated as a mine by the government. Permits by states as a ‘mine’.

No different that ‘coal mines’ that do strip mining at the surface… (no one digging underground)…

t.

#28

Good article here if you like ‘blueprints’

“Bloomberg forecasts 3.2 million EV sales in the U.S. for
2028,27 and over 200 GW of lithium-ion battery-based
grid storage deployed globally by 2028.28 With an average
EV battery capacity of 100 kWh, 320 GWh of domestic
lithium-ion battery production capacity will be needed
just to meet passenger EV demand. Benchmark Mineral
Intelligence forecasts U.S. lithium-ion battery production
capacity of 148 GWh by 2028,29 less than 50% of
projected demand. These projections show there is a real
threat that U.S. companies will not be able to benefit from
domestic and global market growth, potentially impacting
their long-term financial viability”

that’s only for EV batteries. Grid scale battery storage will take at least that amount…

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/FCAB%20Na…

Right now, Sliver Peak is essentially the only Li mine doing commercial level work. We’ll see if the others get past the Sierra Club and other ‘wildlife’ groups and actually get permits to operate and how soon. The ‘data’ on how much they actually mine is a ‘company secret’, too. Who knows?

Chile and Australia produce most of the Li now and both are expanding operations

I think it is one of those ‘and then a miracle occurs’ moments that is in the blueprint…to get to that level.

Of course, with China, and europe going EV in a bigger way than the US…they will have to suck up LI by the billions of pounds to produce the cars they plan. Europe has very little Li mining currently - if any.

t.

1 Like
#29

Yes, the Chinese have been building mega refineries, producing mega tons of Li, and produce the majority of ‘cells’ for batteries in the world. They are spending tens of billions buying up Li mines around the world and have a lock on at least half the world’s current production of Li2CO3 - lithium carbonate. They are spending tens of billions on refineries and intend to be the world leader in this technology.

They are also spending 100 billion on autonomous cars and systems and advanced EVs. That’s government money. Each year.

Bully for them. But doesn’t change your absurdly false claim that new US lithium mining and processing is 5-10 years out.

New US lithium mining and processing will come online this year, and more within the next three years.

That might make you mad, but that’s what the mining companies are saying. Even if they are a year or two off, that’s still not 5-10 years like you claim.

8 Likes
#30

“Worth its weight in gold” is an idiomatic expression similar to “raining cats and dogs”, he “leap frogged the defense”, leading a “clown posse” etc… Try using a dictionary to figure it out.

Also by your reasoning, I wouldn’t call it logic, oil and gas extraction must be “mining” because it uses the same process as lithium brine extraction and you insist that is “mining”.

OTFoolish

2 Likes
#31

t,

You continue to conflate the issue of brine extraction and mineral mining. They are two COMPLETELY different processes with their own attending issues.

However THE SALTON SEA brine extraction is environmentally beneficial.

First, its returns “clean water” to the environment by removing the lithium and other minerals from the water and then will release it into the “Sea”.

Second, it extracts energy from the 700 degree water to power the process of refining the lithium and cobalt with NO carbon release.

Third, they have already have the necessary permits and the backing from the various environmental agencies and nonprofits to continues their work.

So, any more worthless comments.

OTFoolish

3 Likes
#32

“According to the last report, battery-spec materials have been successfully created at a pilot scale with >99% impurity removal and over 90% lithium recovery.” (ATLiS project)

https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/permits-in-place-for-geotherm…

“CTR should start lithium deliveries to GM by 2024. If the Salton Sea pans out as well as it should, the area could provide 40 percent of the world’s lithium”

https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a37029490/gm-will-s…

IF…and in a couple years…if the CA folks don’t manage to shut it down for some reason. Only a ‘pilot’ plant running so far.

t.

1 Like