Russian mobilizations
This fall, Russia has called up 300,000.
According to Shoigu, 300,000 reservists were planned to be mobilized,[64] called from a pool of 25 million “potential fighters.”
Last week Russia called up another 700,000.
The muted mobilization was reported by Russian independent outlet Volya last week, citing sources in the Russian military’s General Staff.
“The Ministry of Defense needs to recruit about 700,000 more people for the war by February,” the outlet reported, adding, “[O]fficials, politicians and generals will publicly assert that there is no mobilization.”
The Ukrainians have had at least 3 mobilizations. But no numbers were available. I suppose another mobilization will occur as the Russians are mobilizing more.
The Russians have slightly more than 3 times the population of the Ukraine with similar demographics. Ukraine must avoid a war of attrition at all costs.
The US believes that is exactly the type of war Zelensky is fighting. That some land is not strategically worth fighting over. But it is a morale issue/messaging issue to the Ukrainian people for Zelensky. A WW2 German leader hampered his generals by not allowing them to pull back to utilize terrain for better defensive positions. The worst instance of that policy was a loss of a German army in Stalingrad.
The Americans want Zelensky to “focus instead on a style of mechanized maneuver warfare that uses rapid, unanticipated movements against Russia, sources familiar with their discussion said.”
the senior Western official said, Bakhmut “matters because the Russians have made it matter — probably more than the terrain does.” A US military official also expressed skepticism that Ukraine will abandon Bakhmut — not because of its battlefield value, but because its strategic messaging value is so important.
On Monday, a senior US military official told reporters that Russia has “rushed in” tens of thousands of “ill-equipped, ill-trained” replacement troops across the front line over the last several months, including to Bakhmut, amid the losses suffered. Despite the large numbers, the new troops have not changed the dynamic of the fight, the official said.
But Ukraine is also suffering enormous casualties in the battle and expending tremendous amounts of artillery ammunition daily – a style of fighting that the US does not believe is sustainable. In terms of sheer volume, Russia still has more artillery ammunition and manpower, with the paramilitary organization Wagner Group using thousands of convicts to “throw bodies” at the battle, the Western intelligence official said.
“A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia would seriously challenge the viability of Russia’s ‘land-bridge’ linking Russia’s Rostov region and Crimea,” the UK Ministry of Defense reported in its regular intelligence update earlier this month.
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A push south could sever the land bridge to the Crimea cutting all supply to that region. The Kherson bridges have already been destroyed to prevent rail supply.
The Russian army is relying on civilian trucks to supply Crimea. I would think isolating Crimea would be a great morale builder.
