The Ukraine War

Some will. Depends a lot on who the head of intelligence is, and who the person receiving it is. We’ve all seen it in business, too. Some bosses don’t want to hear bad news. Some want to hear the truth.

There were probably no analysts who thought Saddam was a good guy. I would be shocked if they all felt the same way about how easy it would be, or whether we should disband the army and let 250,000 armed young men go loose around the country.

But we all know which camp Cheney and Rumsfeld were in, so the failure is quite explainable.

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On a different subject. The hate between the Soviet Union & US/West began early. After Russia exited WW1, allied forces entered Russia to keep military supply dumps from falling into German hands. That mutated into support for the White faction during the Russian civil war agin the Red (commie) faction.
Britain provided officers to some of the White units.

We all know how that turned out.

After the end of WW2 the CIA provided support to former fascists in the insurgency war in Ukraine. That failed also.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/11/covert-operation-ukrainian-independence-haunts-cia-00029968

And it is unclear how the US government was involved in the 2014 Ukraine revolution. We do know there was some involvement.

The former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024.

General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is “a serious risk” of Ukraine losing the war this year.

The reason, he says, is “because Ukraine may come to feel it can’t win”.

“And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?”

Ukraine is not yet at that point.

“We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons.”

General Sir Richard Barrons, a former head of Joint Forces Command, said the sheer attrition of the conflict had proven that even with huge amounts of modern technology, any force facing Russia must have scale.

“You need really big concentrations of forces to break through a really coherent defence, such as the one that Russia has built in southern Ukraine,” he explained.

Meanwhile the cupboards are bare in USA.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pentagon-needs-congress-to-hand-over-10b-to-replace-weapons-sent-to-ukraine/ar-BB1jI3OV
The Pentagon has sent $10 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine that it still does not have the money to replace due to congressional gridlock, according to a top Defense Department official.

If DOD does not get the funding to backfill its stocks, the impact of that “ongoing hole” will ultimately be felt by the U.S. military’s own forces, said a senior DOD official, who was granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Saturday that the situation on the frontline in eastern Ukraine has “significantly worsened” in recent days as Russian forces are making steady gains.

On Thursday, the Ukrainian Rada passed a bill that tightened the requirement to register with conscription offices and increased punishment for those who fail to do so. Additionally, Ukrainian lawmakers removed a provision in the bill that would have granted relief to soldiers who have been in combat for 36 months.
Current Ukrainian troops are in for the duration or death.

Ukraine funding passed in the house. I expect it will breeze through the Senate.
Arms will flow again.
But what about 155mm artillery rounds production.

In the United States, making artillery ammunition takes several weeks, as heavy steel bars are forged into empty projectiles in Scranton, Pa., then shipped to rural Iowa, where they are filled with explosives and prepared for delivery.

General Dynamics, which operates the Pennsylvania factory, is opening a new factory to make metal shell bodies outside Dallas to help increase total numbers of completed shells. The Army says it makes about 30,000 of the high-explosive shells each month, up from about 14,000 per month before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Likely still not enough.

The Army’s goal is to produce 100,000 155-millimeter artillery projectiles per month by 2025.

That’s more like it but still not enough. Ukraine will burn through that in less than a week.

Russian and Ukrainian military forces are firing tens of thousands of ammunition shells daily

Forbes suggests that it is time to explore into the production of 155mm shells.

It is no secret the artillery fight for Ukraine has devolved into a battle for mass. The West, hoping to pump at least 200,000 155mm rounds a month into the Ukraine fight, is reaching into old stockpiles and even exploring the idea of refurbishing expired shells. These are all viable stopgaps, but, as the West’s ammunition production infrastructure struggles to scale up in 2024, the artisanal, hand-crafted aspects of post-Cold War artillery manufacturing merits some tough scrutiny.

Production is key.

America is set to produce at least 100,000 155mm shells a month by 2025, leaving Europe with the task to boost domestic production of 155mm shells by 150% over the course of 2024.

That is a heavy lift. To beat Russia in the production fight, the West has an obligation to explore every avenue to speed shells to the front. And while raiding old stockpiles and refurbishing expired munitions may offer some relief to Kyiv’s shell-hunger, Ukraine’s allies can do more to speed production by scrubbing their artillery production processes of un-needed and un-necessary requirements.

OK but how many injuries & deaths result in such action? How much accuracy is affected by cutting corners?
Forbes does point out since the ammunition will be used promptly any processes than allow for long term storage of the shell is unneeded. Also that since the ammunition is being fired through overused artilley cannon accuracy suffers anyway.

Besides by increasing profits that increases profits. Shareholder Value!

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And the number of shells available for the Ukraine. Ukraine Value!

DB2

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Well with all the infrastructure damage; Ukraine is definitely a fixer-upper.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ramps-up-artillery-production-still-falling-short-western-official-says-2023-09-09/
Russia may be able to increase production of artillery in the next couple years to about 2 million shells annually, about double some previous Western expectations but still far short of Moscow’s Ukraine war needs, a Western official said on Friday.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, estimated Russia fired between 10 million and 11 million rounds last year in Ukraine. Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine

Last March, Ukraine’s Defense Secretary Oleksij Reznikov said Ukraine needed 356,400 shells a month “for the successful execution of battlefield tasks,” which works out to 11,800 shots per day.

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Possible Russian break through.

It’s the fastest penetration into Ukrainian territory by Russian forces in months—and it threatens to collapse Ukraine’s defensive line west of Avdiivka. A line that has held for months, but now has a deep and widening gap in it. “Pandora’s box is open,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State commented.

To get a sense of how frightened Ukrainian commanders are right now, consider the brigade they rushed into the breach north and west of Ocheretyne: the 100th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade is one of the newest and most lightly-equipped brigades in the Ukrainian army—and seemingly unsuited for the kind of front-line triage commanders are asking of it.

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Putin probably thinking get moving before that fresh batch of USian ammo reaches the Ukrainians. I have read reports that the supplies were staged in advance in Europe, so they can be moved into Ukraine, leaving Putin only a few days to make a move.

Steve

If it keeps up, all the US has to do is allow Ukraine to sink one of the big Russian ships. T1t for tat … keep the war going for as long as possible. Bleed the Russians. Lesson to China.

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@tjscott0

Notice your poor reporters are not discussing South Korean arms sales?

US money is supposed to go to US manufacturers. Some of it is going to SK.

Yes, I have heard several pols make that argument: Ukraine funding is jobs for USians and profits for arms companies. Yesh. Reminds me of the negotiations between the US and the UK in the “destroyers for bases” deal in 1940. FDR needed to show a profit for the US, to get the deal through Congress, rather than simply giving the obsolete destroyers to the UK. In a telephone call, US officials are trying to negotiate a benefit for the US. Churchill said “Empires don’t bargain”. One of the US officials on the call said “Republics do”. Then there is the way the US came on like a loan shark, after WWI, squeezing it’s former allies for repayment. Seems the USian national motto should be “what’s in it for me?”, not that religious thing.

Steve

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Suggestion: Study the Marshall Plan.

To a man with just a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Your nail—that the USA has never done anything good–is getting rusty.

Murph

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With the IRA we have our own internal Marshall Plan.

Very apt indeed :clap:

Here’s the impressive track record of military misadventures of the US “hammer” looking for nails all over the world since 1968:

’ In the last decades, the US government has spent billions of dollars on military interventions in many countries. Has this type of foreign intervention been a success or failure from the perspective of the supporting country? For a sample of 174 countries between 1968 and 2018, Eugen Dimant (University of Pennsylvania), Tim Krieger (University of Freiburg) and Daniel Meierrieks (WZB) study how US military aid affects anti-American terrorism and military and economic-political conditions in aid-receiving countries.

One of the main results: Higher levels of military aid result in more anti-American terrorism in recipient countries. Additionally, the empirical work shows that US military aid has not been successful in enhancing military capacity in the recipient countries of military aid, but has rather contributed to exclusion and corruption.

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Another list of American interferences post WWII…

Overthrowing other people’s governments: The Master List – William Blum

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The last time I looked, I was responding to a criticism regarding the USA and World War II…and the continual drum beat from a certain poster about how bad the USA is in everything in every field.
Murph

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Desperate for recruits after a six-month delay in declaring mobilization, Ukraine’s MPs took a page straight from the book of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary force — which also allows convicts to reduce their jail terms through military service.

The lawmakers hope a regulated, voluntary process will allow Kyiv to mobilize up to 10,000 convicts for the war. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must sign the bill before it can take effect.

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We stopped Hitler. Interventionist.

Considering what is said every third word it was a mistake.