These are strange times

I suppose a recession is on the horizon.


Individual balance sheets have never been better.BAC recently indicated that clients had more cash than ever in their checking accounts.

Desirable cars and almost all trucks are selling above MSRP?

Electric Hummer used sells for double MSRP.

My friend tried to buy a Mercedes Sprinter to convert to a RV. Had to pay 15K over MSRP and wait 6+ months.

I needed a new outboard motor. Not available at any price new. I had to buy nearly new 2021 from facebook seller. Drove over an hour to get it. Paid more than original buyer paid. A little less than current MSRP due to inflation.

This is the strangest economy ever.

I got it. Mortgage rates are higher and this should stall out home buying. I hope inflation improves.

But any recession should be shallow.


Good post. It just seems like the wealthy have never been wealthier.I have a relative who runs s private catholic boys school (grades 7-12) that costs $56k per year and there is a waiting list to get in.
I read yesterday that University of Chicago, Dartmouth and Brown will cost over $80k next school year. Applicants for admission are at record levels.
Crazy world.


Strange times? You want strange times? I’ll give you strange times.

Over on Saul’s board one guy who has lost 60% of his equity has proposed an idea:

How do we solve it?
I don’t think there is any magical solution. Maybe we should just try to choose stocks that have a real chance of holding on to for at least few years. If there is no realistic chance of holding on to them for at least few years, then maybe we should just stay away from them rather than going in and out of them and often losing capital. Probably easier said than done to find such stocks consistently I guess!

What’s even stranger? The post has not been taken down!…



Tuesday my wife and I will go to play trivia at a local tavern, we have a lot of enjoyment doing that. This place has a couple of separate rooms and one is large. That’s been the overflowing crypto bunch’s meeting place.

Both my wife and I are anxious to see the numbers, if less will show up now. For those of you thinking that my wife and I enjoy others losing money you could not be more wrong. It is this and absolutely nothing more than this: Over the years we have seen repeated obsessive speculations of unproductive assets and the steps/process/outcome are mirror immages of one another.

Many never recover.


What’s even stranger? The post has not been taken down!…

I haven’t been participating in the Saul phenomenon, nor really watching it either.
But that sure is a sad post.

And a sadly familiar phenomenon. He might have been talking about JDS Uniphase, or Polaroid.
Or earlier, a banking enthusiast—
“At their peaks the banks were probably the most overvalued stocks in the market. National City Bank
stock traded at 120 times 1929 earnings per share and over 1300% of book value. Chase National Bank
stock traded at 62 times 1929 earnings per share and 438% of book value.”

In every cycle, a few high growth or just highly fashionable firms that seem to be wildly priced do end up working out very well indeed as both businesses and investments.
But never forget survivorship bias. The success rate is so low that so the average is negative.

Maybe that fellow’s holdings will contain some of the golden needles in the haystack.
But it’s probably not a good bet.



Over on Saul’s board

I thought this is Berkshire board, looks like this is Whining about Saul’s board.


Maybe that fellow’s holdings will contain some of the golden needles in the haystack.
But it’s probably not a good bet.

It never is.

The chance of finding a needle in any given haystack is already very low. So the chance of finding a golden needle is infinitesimal.


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