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Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
#21

I agree, I don’t see bonds (except very low rated ones) that the yield is in the 3% or higher range either.

But it is besides the point. Whether its 2.5% or 4% its not much of a return for the risk you are taking. When interest rates go up, which is as inevitable as a downturn in the stock market you will get crushed. If I am going to get hammered, I’d rather do it in the stock market where I have had many years of good yields, to offset the year I get hammered.

I’m up 51% YTD, and that would take me 15 years in the bond market. That is no way to build a retirement portfolio.

I’ll admit I was pretty lucky, but since finding this board a couple of months ago and the excellent commentary on it, as well as the good research I believe it is sustainable. I found this board two months ago by chance when I was researching how to deal with a couple of stocks that became more than 20% of my portfolio because they increased in value. I was nervous about the risk of having so much in any one stock, but didn’t want to sell the companies that were doing so well.

I am one of those lurkers, but am looking at a couple of companies I can bring to the board. They are not ready for prime time now, so I will continue to monitor and if they qualify I’ll graduate.

2 Likes
#22

Hi Tinker,

There is no romanticism about it, in the end the stock market is a beast. It will eat you up, and then spit you out if you let it, and if you get emotional about stock.

Well said. Or, as that great philosophical thinker Mike Tyson once said,

Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face!

DT

4 Likes
#23

am looking at a couple of companies I can bring to the board. They are not ready for prime time now, so I will continue to monitor.

Hey don, why don’t you tell us about the stocks and what they do and why you like them and maybe a discussion will start around them that will be helpful to you as well as to us. That’s what the board is about.
Thanks
Saul

1 Like
#24

One problem with lurkers is that we don’t even know who and how many they are. They contribute nothing, they take what they can get for free, and likely will crucify you when the crash comes.

I’m mostly lurking.

I rarely contribute here. And I appreciate that it’s free.

Not likely I’ll crucify you when the crash comes, not even criticize. I’ve been through multiple hard times and multiple good times over a 50+ year investing history and accept my errors as my own.

And… I recognize that whatever rules or approaches one takes with investing… you better be prepared to keep learning and be prepared to change.

So, back to the main point.

Don’t assume you know those who lurk. And, for that matter, don’t assume you know those who post… you’re seeing just words they have written and they may be quite different than you “assume”. Think. For yourself. And be thankful for wise input from your fellow investors… and plan to exercise wisdom in recognizing unwise input… and WHEN you goof, it’s YOUR goof.

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

21 Likes
#25

Interesting thread. As of this post there’s 23 ahead of me (I think).

So here’s the way I see it. My wife is Chinese and has only lived in the US for the last two years. She has not a clue about investing, yet every day she asks, “How are the investments doing?” She doesn’t know what the investments are or why I’ve chosen one company versus another.

Nevertheless, our investments were up 64% for the year at the close of September. I patiently explain to my wife that this is abnormal. My expectation, my goal is 20% a year. This year has been extraordinary.

But I also assure her that a “correction” most assuredly will come, it always does. So, I could have played it “safe” and I could be up something much less for the year, say 15% - 16% by investing in an S&P index fund. A loss of 20% would be less painful with respect to the amount lost. If I had started the year with $1,000 invested, my investments would be worth $1,150. A 20% loss would amount to $230, leaving us with $920, an $80 loss for the year. But, the fact is that I’m up 64% which would make that initial $1,000 worth $1,640 today. A 20% loss amounts to $328, quite a lot more in terms of cash, That los would put my portfolio at $1,312, which is still a 31% gain for the year. And I wrote above that my goal is 20%.

“OK,” you might say, “but the stuff you’re invested in is likely to suffer more than a 20% loss.” “Well, maybe.” I would reply. First of all, I am very judicious about what companies I chose to invest in. I don’t just screen for fast growth and put my money there. I look for real companies with real business plans and real products and/or services doing business within a corporate structure I understand with financial statements that I also understand. I don’t (any longer) invest in “a promising future” or “a great story.” So while the companies I invest in may suffer more than the average, and maybe my gain for the year might fall to 15% if they get trampled, I’m still ahead. In my book, that’s preferable to a loss.

Would I sell everything to cash if I saw trouble? Probably not. First of all, “trouble” is not always easy to spot. I sold almost everything last November after the election. Please, please, please don’t turn that comment into a political flame. It was my personal evaluation that the election results would not be good for investors. I freely admit I was 100% wrong. Obviously, I got back into the market shortly thereafter. My point is not a to be taken as a partisan/political issue. My point is that flash points and market motion are not obvious, except in hindsight.

So I would stay nearly 100% invested, but I might shift some positions around. Good companies use market corrections to become better companies by buying competitors on the cheap, or expanding share or whatever. That’s what makes them good companies to begin with.

I’m a pretty old guy. Far too old to be fully in the stock market as I am (according to conventional wisdom). Yet, I don’t perceive any better investments, even at my advanced age. And my wife is 9 years younger than I, and I have a daughter and a granddaughter. Even if I don’t reap the full rewards of my investments, I believe my family will.

I have a debt of gratitude to Saul for this board that I will never be able to repay.

21 Likes
#26

Actually, I think the key issue with the request for RFID is not the cost or size or whatever of the tag, but the fact that the tag only has meaning in the presence of a sensor. They work in warehouses and the like since there is a presumption that an item is where it was last placed until it is moved and when it is moved it passes a sensor, but are you really going to put dozens of sensors throughout your home to track the movement? And, it will do you no good at all when you leave your sunglasses on the table at lunch unless you instrument the whole world.

1 Like
#27

Rob wrote:

Don’t assume you know those who lurk.

in reply to what I wrote:

One problem with lurkers is that we don’t even know who and how many they are.

I wrote my post from real life experience at the Gilder forum. Until the bubble burst George Gilder was called a genius. My portfolio went up four fold in a year. One day I made $80,000. Some other day I might lose $30,000. It was a wild, fun ride. In a bull market we are all geniuses. After the bubble burst he was called a crook. It can happen here and likely will. People have short event horizons: “What have you done for me today?”

I’m not calling anyone out. Don’t take it personally. I’m talking generally about human behavior driven by greed and fear and about a large number of humans who will not take responsibility but will, instead, look for someone to blame: bankers, the 1%, politicians, anyone convenient including very helpful Fools.

Denny Schlesinger

3 Likes
#28

If comes the Big Dip and gains cut by half
It’s still a helluva year and I have to laugh

There’s a time for bonds but sure isn’t now
Someone’s missing out and they told us how

They were buying bonds (such inequity!)
Not our fault if they can’t spell Ubiquity

So buy those bonds and pray for the drop
We’ll still be ahead owning SHOP

Prep for the winter make way for the bear
Don’t believe the Bull but at least be aware

The longest bull market we’ll ever see
Is what we’re lvin’ you and me

Keep your strategy and I’ll keep mine
See what happens (You’re doing fine)

Such bulls come seldom, bulls like this
I hope you don’t have to count it as a miss

“The market’s too expensive, can’t buy now”
Five years of saying and worked out how

15 Likes
#29

Darn it. I knew that would jinx the rally.

Bad, bad Raptor.

Dan

1 Like
#30

Thanks Tinker! I ended up buying a small bit of PI (Impinj). It was not exactly what I am looking for but it looks interesting in that space.

#31

“Actually, I think the key issue with the request for RFID is not the cost or size or whatever of the tag, but the fact that the tag only has meaning in the presence of a sensor. They work in warehouses and the like since there is a presumption that an item is where it was last placed until it is moved and when it is moved it passes a sensor, but are you really going to put dozens of sensors throughout your home to track the movement? And, it will do you no good at all when you leave your sunglasses on the table at lunch unless you instrument the whole world.”

I rather hoped that eventually my smart phone would be a sensor. Since my house is not huge, I can envision walking around a bit until it spots my keys which have been dragged under the couch by the cats. Also standing in front of the fridge or freezer with open door to see what is inside and check expiration dates with a comparison to my stock list of items I like to keep on hand.

Also if I am in basement looking for the box of christmas decorations that are put up in a stack of stuff that would rival the warehouse in an Indiana Jones movie (but no dead alien bodies) I would rather walk around until sensor picks it up instead of looking through box stacks.

Building the sensor (with app) into the phone/ipad and then eventually electronics will be key to wide scale usability.

#32

Re RFID, a better solution is to make the chips two-way and network them.

The problem with RFID as an investment is that it’s a commodity, radios sending a few signals.

Denny Schlesinger

#33

For what you are describing, something like https://www.thetrackr.com/ might work.

#34

Thanks! I will get one for my keys. :slight_smile: