numbers for my NFLX example.
I assumed a $100k position as of June 2009 down 60% by Jan 2013
Had you sold in Jun 09 and reinvested the entire amount in Jan 13, you would have $477k vs $181k.
Even if you paid 40% taxes and had only 60% to put back in in Jan 13, that is still $286K today.
That is where I got the %s from. If you perfectly hit the bottom, the amounts almost double!
Investors have been shown to leave far more money on the table by selling too soon than by holding too long. Sure, NILE has gone nowhere for a decade… But for each Blue Nile how many [winners] are there. Take profits off the table! they yell.
Alan,
I wasn’t talking about selling winners early, or taking profits off the table, which of course does have tax consequences, as you noted, as well as the risk of a winner going on and on, as winners tend to do.
I was talking about admitting evident losers may be going nowhere, and that maybe there are better choices for your subscriber’s money (like one of the Best Buys Now, or one of the most recent recommendations).
Those are two entirely different propositions.
Saul
Tony:
Jumping into this thread late, but I just wanted to add my 2 cents.
As someone else who has a lot of people following my trades, particularly on the SA Options board, I don’t think it is reasonable to expect a private individual to pre-announce their trades or even feel a need to announce them at all. Saul has developed a following because he has a good track record, and it’s great that he’s willing to give back to the community as much as he does. We have no idea if the number of people posting here or even giving recs is just the tip of the iceberg. Particularly on small cap stocks, it doesn’t take a lot of investors to really start moving the price of a stock. In my case with options it’s an even more acute situation. There’s no way I’d announce in advance an options trade I was going to make. MF Pro and MF Options have this problem all the time - when they issue an options recommendation usually the price moves away from them very quickly because of people piling on (and not using limit orders.)
I’m quite happy to share my options trades almost in real time, but only after I’ve made my trade. Saul deserves the same freedom.
I also understand the issue which he pointed out, of not wanting to spend time explaining his reasons for buying or selling. He shouldn’t have to and doesn’t have to explain anything. What he chooses to share is up to him. I am grateful for what he does share and my portfolio thanks him.
I try to keep up with this board Saul, but had fallen behind due to summer travel, so I’ve been catching up a bit today.
I hope you don’t mind, but I am going to give it a shout out on SA Options. I know some of the people there follow you, but there’s probably a lot that don’t.
Keep on doing what you’re doing.
Thanks,
John
Whoa!
What is the “Tesla” icon about?
-FrickNFool
Tony,
I admire your courage to row upstream on this board, this is not easy. Also, I agree with your assessment that Saul’s portfolio is down as of his last update, he told us that himself. Also, questioning the hype of a penny stock is not unreasonable, especially if you are new to this board (or understand pump and dump in the real world). But having a moral obligation to answer is definitely where we part ways.
I would think most folks on this board use Saul’s portfolio as a recommendation list. If anyone is trying to mimic his every move, they are doing this at their own peril. Saul’s portfolio is concentrated and what I like are his top picks. If he is willing to put 50 plus percentage of his portfolio in few picks, those stocks are definitely worth my research time. Also, I believe he and his wife are both doctors and he is retired, so 50% of his portfolio should be a significant amount of money to risk.
I care less of his bottom 5-10%. Once they become less risky and join his top picks, I can join his bandwagon. I don’t need to make every percentage as Saul’s portfolio. I bought SYNA, CELG UNBT, AMBA and AFOP after studying Saul portfolio and I still own them all. I can assure you I am up on all except AFOP. Additionally, I added to my AFOP and bought a boat load of options on AFOP when it was around its low and believe it can recover further. Also, we are in this for the long term, so the race is still on. Let’s check back on these stocks in couple of years – including some of the penny ones.
All I can hope for is for Saul to continue to post his updates.
LegoAbs
Few of my >5% stocks
APPL, INFN, INVN, IPGP & (BTE, ROIC - for income)
Wow - what did Tony say that got his post removed so quickly?
John
Whoa!
What is the “Tesla” icon about?
It came about because of this post over on MF One:
http://discussion.fool.com/1255/i-was-happy-to-see-that-mf-one-d…
I’ll reproduce it here so that others can read it:
I was happy to see that MF One decided to arrange the August Member Event around Anna and my schedule. It’s amazing the lengths TMF will go to to make members happy! Thank you Meredith!
So we’ve juggled our schedule a bit, and will be at the SF Fool One August Member event on July 31/Aug 1, along with the Model S.
I think I need to ask Tom and David to create a charm for having the Model S that has been at the most Fool events. I’ve brought her to:
- The SuperNova event in NYC
- Newark, NJ NYC area Fool dinner
- Fool Fest in Alexandria, VA
- Edison, NJ NY/NJ/PA area Fool dinner
- TMFPencil’s Berea College Event, KY
- NYC area dinner in Manhattan, Tribeca Grill
To come:
- Fool One NJ Meetup - June 28th
- Fool One August Member Event in SF, CA
I mean, how many people do you know who are crazy enough to drive across country to attend a Fool One event?
It was of course a ‘tongue-in-cheek’ post, but Tom or somebody decided to act on it.
John
Saul,
I see that you dropped SWIR.
what was your reason?
I’m thinking of selling SWIR to add to my UBNT position.
BTW, what do you think of GILD?
Its been great last couple of months. peg still at .55
Wow, how things change in a year’s time.
Although you aren’t a trader, your portfolio feels so different than a year ago.
Anirban,
I too dipped my toe into Tom’s TMFOne picks, about 18 months ago. Soda is my biggest loser, followed by NOV. I left TMF1 because of Tom’s inability to decide what a good price for a particular stock is. Not all stocks are a good buy on any given day or week or year. I also find the idea of holding a stock forever to be a bit ludicrous.
Gordon