Time is the secret strategy

https://endlessmetrics.substack.com/p/when-buying-the-dip-do…

This is an article suitable for current times. It talks about history where buying on the dips helped, but not in a quick time frame one expected.

It highlights that buying on dips is a well-known strategy but Time is the Secret Strategy.
Also investing at regular intervals.

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Time is the winning strategy for Motley Fool picks where they emphasizes holding 3-5 years at the minimum. Time is not the winning strategy here. Some of our stocks have been held a while, but we test stocks, we trim, we rebalance and we drop stocks when our metrics show they are slowing.

Will some of our SaaS stocks be great in 5 years? Probably. Will many people here hold them that long? probably not. People have come to this board and gotten all excited and followed with cult-like adoration, but the were all in on “high risk” stocks. When you lose 50% of your retirement funds and you have to withdraw cash every year, you are in big trouble. Saul has doubled his funds year after year and should sitting on many millions of dollars. But if you came here with $1m and are now at $500k, your retirement is wrecked. These were not suitable stocks for most investors at high concentrations.

If you had put 10% of your money in a “Saul” account and never added or subtracted, it probably would have been suitable, but we see a lot of posts where that is not true and there is no guaranty that time will mend these wounds.

I certainly should not surprise anyone if these stocks are out of favor for a full year, going essentially no where. Could it be 2 years? How many people on this board have the psychology to t endure that? How many might have to work an extra 2-5 years to make it up the hard way?

This is a great board with really smart people, but we drank our own kool-aid.

When Fed Chair Powel hinted at rate hikes in late 2018, the Naz went down about 19-20%, the he said my bad, here’s some more free money and it came back fast. I suspect that is what people expect, but this time he really did raise rate, and will continue. There will be no fast bounce back this time.

*Upstart was down about 40% after hours tonight, and it actually makes money. Can it get back to old highs even in 5 years?

As Dr. Frankenfurter said Time is fleeting

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