# Timing the economic outcomes of the election **URL:** \ **Category:** Macro Economic Trends and Risks\ **Created:** [November 7, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036 "2024-11-07T21:15:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![WendyBG](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/wendybg/32/67464_2.png) [@WendyBG](https://discussion.fool.com/u/WendyBG)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036/1 "2024-11-07T21:15:48Z")
While presidential candidates talk a lot about economics, in fact their ability to affect outcomes is direct for some factors but tangential or minimal for others. Presidents can declare war or wage hostilities without declaring war (the Senate hasn’t been stepping up to the plate on this for years). That impacts defense industries. Presidents can impose tariffs unilaterally without Congressional approval. Presidents can put expensive programs in place (e.g. tuition forgiveness) which can be challenged in court because only the House of Representatives is responsible for the budget. Presidents can tell executive agencies to put regulations in place that can impact (even destroy) companies, such as pollution controls. Presidents can’t construct the federal government budget although they can express their opinions. The budget controls taxes and spending and therefore fiscal stimulus or restriction. Presidents can’t control the money supply which is independently controlled by the Federal Reserve. Presidents are supposed to leave the Fed alone although Nixon and Trump put heavy pressure on the Fed to reduce the fed funds rate. Trump can be expected to do this again. [https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-win-president-money-taxes-finances-0b12cb77?mod=hp\_lead\_pos11](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-win-president-money-taxes-finances-0b12cb77?mod=hp_lead_pos11) # Your Money in a Second Trump Term: Taxes, Credit Cards and Student Loans ## President-elect stands to reverse many Biden-era consumer-finance initiatives By [Ashlea Ebeling](https://www.wsj.com/news/author/ashlea-ebeling), [Imani Moise](https://www.wsj.com/news/author/imani-moise) and [Oyin Adedoyin](https://www.wsj.com/news/author/oyin-adedoyin), The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 6, 2024 … President Biden’s push to curb credit-card late fees could be sidelined, analysts say. They don’t expect his student-loan relief efforts to survive, either. With a Republican-leaning Congress, President-elect [Donald Trump](https://www.wsj.com/topics/person/donald-trump)’s 2017 tax cuts are more likely to be extended… [Snip descriptions of the 2017 tax law which we are all familiar with. These would be extended.] The Biden administration forgave more than $175 billion in student loans for more than 4.8 million Americans. Trump has generally spoken in opposition to the Biden administration’s student-loan forgiveness initiatives and would be unlikely to continue to defend them in court. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau would become more industry-friendly. [snip descriptions of consumer-friendly programs]… [end quote] Tariffs could go into effect immediately. Raising tariffs is inflationary. This could have a rebound effect on the Federal Reserve. Renewing the current 2017 tax law would stabilize the economy relative to an unpredictable change in the tax law. (Does anyone think that Congress would just go back to the old law without tinkering?) Changes in regulations take time because they must go through a lengthy approval process. Any tax and spending laws (such as a child tax credit) are part of the Congressional budgetary process which takes time. The question is how much the deficit will rise and how that will impact bond yields. Wendy ---
**Author:** ![MataroPete](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/mataropete/32/16060_2.png) [@MataroPete](https://discussion.fool.com/u/MataroPete)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036/2 "2024-11-07T22:13:38Z")
> [@WendyBG](#): > > (Does anyone think that Congress would just go back to the old law without tinkering?) Maybe, in the current environment. And not just because of the much-trumpeted honeymoon period that presidents typically enjoy. This Congress, if unified by party in both houses, might well do whatever their overlord demands. Pete ---
**Author:** ![jerryab2](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/jerryab2/32/3274_2.png) [@jerryab2](https://discussion.fool.com/u/jerryab2)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 10:23pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036/3 "2024-11-07T22:23:07Z")
> [@MataroPete](#): > > Congress, if unified by party in both houses, might well do whatever their overlord demands. So, big tax increases (via tariffs) are on the short-term horizon. For how long they will remain will be fun to watch–as other countries impose their own countervailling taxes on US exports. Bread could become VERY expensive if farmers can’t export it. Same for soybeans, corn, and so on. Corporate farming won’t be harmed because “too big to fail”. Smaller farms probably going away and not coming back. ---
**Author:** ![steve203](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/steve203/32/3302_2.png) [@steve203](https://discussion.fool.com/u/steve203)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2024, 10:51pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036/4 "2024-11-07T22:51:14Z")
> [@WendyBG](#): > > Changes in regulations take time because they must go through a lengthy approval process. Seems SCOTUS cast doubt on any administrative agency’s authority to enact or enforce regulations. Steve ---
**Author:** ![PucksFool](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/pucksfool/32/47955_2.png) [@PucksFool](https://discussion.fool.com/u/PucksFool)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 2:21am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036/5 "2024-11-08T02:21:45Z")
This was true in 2017 and it is true now. > **[Opinion | How We Think About the Deficit Is Mostly Wrong (Published 2017)](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/opinion/deficit-tax-cuts-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YU4.SXyK.OWQrJmiH0o1R&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=ce)** > > Republicans and Democrats should stop obsessing over using the deficit as a guide to public policy. While we’re at it, let’s not forget to tally up the costs of these. [https://meidasnews.com/video/trumps-93-campaign-promises](https://meidasnews.com/video/trumps-93-campaign-promises) ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 2:33am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036/6 "2024-11-08T02:33:03Z")
Last time Trump’s team Bannon Gingrich etc had a list of executive orders. He has different people with much more limited experience in government. He is not interested in government. You might say he far less interested in government this time. That will cripple him. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkwin](https://g.foolcdn.com/misc-assets/discourse-member-avatar_120px_green600.png) [@Hawkwin](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Hawkwin)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 4:45pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036/7 "2024-11-08T16:45:05Z")
So I am confused. Isn’t this entire post OT since it hasn’t happened yet? > [@NO POLITICS ON METAR! How many times do we have to repeat this?](https://discussion.fool.com/t/no-politics-on-metar-how-many-times-do-we-have-to-repeat-this/97110/1): > > proposals that have NOT been signed into law yet count as politics and will be removed. Note, I disagree with the above post but certainly a tariff that hasn’t happened yet would be the same as a proposal not signed into law. ---
**Author:** ![MataroPete](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/mataropete/32/16060_2.png) [@MataroPete](https://discussion.fool.com/u/MataroPete)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/timing-the-economic-outcomes-of-the-election/110036/8 "2024-11-08T17:47:23Z")
> [@Hawkwin](#): > > So I am confused. > > Isn’t this entire post OT since it hasn’t happened yet? I’m not particularly confused (although I agree with your overall sentiment). There is a bit of ‘rules for thee, but not for me’ that goes on occasionally… Being exhausted with the whole debate about what is and what is not allowed, I just recognize it and move on. Pete