Tomorrow is lining up to be an interesting day. Terrible… painful and disruptive: but interesting. As far as I can tell, most of us Motley Fool Growth junkies are already underwater YTD - and; it certainly ain’t gonna get better tomorrow. That said…the only potentially effective strategy I have is the continuation of the RTHG process whereby I sacrifice lower confidence positions and pour the funds into the higher confidence positions. In this way, I tend to look at market sell offs as opportunities rather than the depressing events they actually are.
Special Note: The Growth port actually has about 30% in cash; but, I am gonna hold that line largely due to my entirely dubious suspicion that whatever happens tomorrow is likely, possibly and almost certainly not the end of the portfolio sell off sinkhole.
To that end, as I look at the plummeting Futures
I have developed a plan for tomorrow - such as it might be. Here is my current Growth portfolio:
Starters:
- APP
- ALAB
- RDDT
- HIMS
-
Bench:
6.) PLTR
7.) NVDA
8.) MELI
9.) TSLA
10) ONON
Scout Team:
- UPST
- INOD
- KARO
- CORZ
So…for tomorrow UPST, ONON and TSLA could become jettisoned ballast. We’ll see I suppose.
All the Best,
Big Dumb Hick Investing.
> Blockquote
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In reference to the tariffs, someone should point out some areas like energy and ag are not affected. We have domestic supplies. Companies with under utilized capacity have potential to grow sales.
As usual media highlights exceptions like avacados and tequila.
I notice that coffee and cocoa prices are falling in anticipation of reduced demand.
Administration hopes some countries will realize their high tariffs on US products are excessive and should be reduced. First reaction is usually to raise tariffs on US products but cooler heads may prevail. We shall see.
So far most stocks are down abt 3 to 4%. I read that as fear of recession. Those directly impacted are down 10 to 14%. It will take a while to sort this out. How will other countries react? Which companies lose; which benefit.
Buying opportunities are out there if you guess right.
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Tomorrow will be a bounce back, as traders and optimists rush in to take advantage of today’s prices.
This fiasco isn’t over yet, and there’s no way to know how bad (or not) it’s going to get.
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First qtr earnings this month should give first indication of companies thoughts on tariff impact. Reaction from other countries might take months. First real numbers end of next qtr–July.
And then you have everyone making adjustments as they see changing trends. Could take years or more to stabilize–especially if new investment is needed.
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Given the possibility that tariffs will be turned on - or off - with the ease of a light switch, would you or any competent industrialist start making plans to put millions of dollars into new production facilities strictly because of geopolitical concerns right now?
Let me help: no, you would not.
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Famous Quote: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face”.
In spite of my portfolio getting punched in the face today - I followed my plan (almost) as follows:
Did in fact jettison both UPST and ONON. But then I deviated a bit from my original thoughts and added another 5% or so from cash on hand to the funds from those sales.
Then did this:
Added a a 1/2 position in CRDO.
Added to:
NVDA
APP
HIMS
INOD
RDDT
MELI
All of which leaves me with about 25% or so in cash. Typically and essentially this simply means that as the market drops 2-4% I will continue to add until the cash runs out or I am flat broke.
Fun day though.
All the Best,
Big Dumb Hick Investing
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No, but if you have idle production capacity if sales grow its easy to hire manpower to use that capacity. Major investment not required.