A roomful of PhDs and Nobel Prize winners at Long Term Capital Management crashed the market. I don’t have much confidence on either “certification of brilliance.”
I don’t know Denny but if I crashed the market I think that would give me bragging rights. How many people can say that they alone crashed the market.
Well you just gave me the name of my boat “The Market” that way if I crash it I will be able to say, “I crashed the market”
Exactly, who are you going to believe. Young naive Shiller or older wiser Shiller?
I wouldn’t believe either one of them. I’ll just continue doing my thing, as best as I can, just as I have always done.
If I’m right–great. If not, I’ll have to make adjustments
The Shiller index is for long term( the next 8 or 10 years) and is useless short term.
And it is based on today’s world being like the world of years ago,having the same risk factors. Which I don’t think is the case
I have looked long and hard and can find no way to identify market tops except in retrospect.
In any case Saul has decreed that this type of discussion does not belong here so I will label it OT (even though it is on thread)
LOL that’s a great name for a boat.