The world’s top 100 oil and gas companies earned more than $30 million every hour in windfall profits during the first month of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, generating an estimated $23 billion in excess earnings in March alone as oil averaged $100 a barrel, according to analysis by Global Witness using Rystad Energy data reported exclusively by the Guardian. Saudi Aramco stands to make an estimated $25.5 billion in war profits in 2026 if the $100 price holds, while ExxonMobil is on track for $11 billion, Chevron $9.2 billion, and Shell $6.8 billion—with three Russian state-linked companies, Gazprom, Rosneft, and Lukoil, projected to collect a combined $23.9 billion, boosting Vladimir Putin’s war chest for the conflict in Ukraine.
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Not at all sure what “excess earnings” are, but if I were operating a refinery on the Gulf coast I’d be running it flat out. There are lots of tankers headed that way.
And China, with its own refineries, is buying some 600,000 barrels a da;y of US oil.
With billions of dollars more in exports, it should help reduce the US trade deficit.
DB2
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The excess profits come from the pockets of ordinary people as they pay high prices to fill up their vehicles and power their homes, as well as from businesses incurring higher energy bills. Dozens of countries have cut fuel taxes to help struggling consumers, meaning those nations, including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil and Zambia, are raising less money for public services.
Pressure is growing for windfall taxes on the war profits of oil and gas companies, with the European Commission considering a request from the finance ministers of Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria to “send a clear message that those who profit from the consequences of war must do their part to ease the burden on the general public”.
“It would make it possible to finance temporary relief, especially for consumers, and curb rising inflation, without placing additional burdens on public budgets,” the ministers said in a letter on 4 April. The EU’s fossil fuel bill has risen by €22bn since the start of the Iran war.
Aramco is by far the biggest winner, estimated to make a war profit of $25.5bn in 2026 if the oil price averages $100. That is on top of the huge profits habitually made by the majority state-owned Saudi company – $250m a day between 2016 to 2023. Saudi Arabia has for decades led successful efforts to block and delay international climate action.
Big oil is set to make huge war profits
Estimated extra profit Mar-Dec 2026 at average price of $100 a barrel
Saudi Aramco
$25.5bn
Kuwait Petroleum Corp
$12.1bn
ExxonMobil
$11.0bn
Gazprom
$10.8bn
Chevron
$9.2bn
PetroChina
$9.2bn
Petrobras
$8.0bn
Shell
$6.8bn
Rosneft
$6.6bn
ADNOC
$6.4bn
Guardian graphic Source: Global Witness/Rystad Energy
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Yes, they are called customers. But that doesn’t answer what “excess earnings” are.
I’m curious, do you have some “approved” price for a barrel of oil? And if the price of oil drops below that should the producers be compensated?
DB2
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