Trading in Our Current Bear Market

The following is a decent chart template, whose entry/exit rules are pretty obvious. Its downside is that whipsaws can be minimized but only at the cost of less advantageous prices. That’s the tradeoff, information-risk vs price-risk, which everyone will weight differently. Me? I want to be in fast and out fast on the theory, “Better a missed opportunity than a realized loss.”

So, a suggestion. Write down your set of entry/exit rules, scroll the chart back in time, and then do walk forwards, one day at time. If your rules grab most of a move and mostly keep you out of trouble, you’re done and can shift from back-testing to actual trading.

Second, this is ‘trading’, not ‘investing’. So trail a stop.

Third, as often as not, prices retest support/resistance. That means your entries might not be clean/crisp as you’d like and the need to ‘average down’, which --admittedly-- is a widely condemned practice for good reasons, but often a necessity. so decide beforehand your scaling scheme AND STICK TO IT.

Fourth, depending on your broker, consider using OCO orders. (TD facilitates them. Schwab doesn’t.)

Fifth, keep your bets equally-sized.

Lastly, don’t torture a chart into confessing what you want it to tell you. If the evidence for an entry isn’t drop-dead obvious, it isn’t “evidence”. Exits, OTOH, can and should be done on the least hint of trouble. No waiting and hoping.

Arindam


https://www.barchart.com/shared-chart/FAZ?chart_url=i_165557…

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