I have been crunching some hypothetical numbers for Trulieve’s Q4 results which will be released on March 15th.
Q 3 2020 Q 4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Revenue Trulieve 136.3 168.4 193.8 215.1 224.1 Harvest 61.6 69.9 88.8 102.5 91.9 Trulieve + Harvest 197.9 238.3 282.6 317.6 316.0 Q/Q growth Trulieve 24% 15% 11% 4% Harvest 13% 27% 15% -10% Trulieve + Harvest 20% 19% 12% -1% Y/Y growth Trulieve 106% 102% 78% 64% Harvest 85% 101% 84% 49% Trulieve + Harvest 103% 100% 80% 37%
Above are the revenue numbers for each company for last 5 quarters. The last quarter Q3 2021 was reported combined revenue but they gave the Trulieve revenue numbers so we can flesh out what the Harvest contribution was as well.
I personally believe last quarter was a purge of the books so to speak. You can see that Q/Q growth and Y/Y growth fell off a cliff. Do I think both businesses revenues slowed that much? No way! My guess is management took the opportunity to clean up outstanding issues (mostly from Harvest which are documented in press) so going forward it would reflect true growth and be more impressive going forward into 2022.
It is well noted that Trulieve revenue growth have come under pressure in Florida as some of their competition has/had reduced prices in an effort to gain market share. Trulieve has reported a slight reduction in their margins. Kim Rivers (Trulieve CEO) said they were not cutting margins as they did not feel the need. This most likely has put pressure on revenue growth. I do believe that is reflected in Trulieve Q/Q and Y/Y growth percentages the past few quarters.
Also do not forget both companies have a bit of seasonality mixed in due to being retirement destinations (Arizona and Florida). Populations in both states swell in the winter due to snowbird effect, this reflects in seasonal stronger Q4 and Q1 results historically.
Even with last quarters “write offs” revenue included both companies Q/Q growth combined averaged 12.5% last year. Additionally combined companies were growing at average of 80% Y/Y.
Here are some of my projected revenue results for Q4 2021.
347.6m would reflect a 10% Q/Q growth rate, 46% Y/Y on combined companies, 106% Y/Y on Trulieve’s revenue numbers. I included Y/Y on Trulieve’s numbers because I believe this is how they will report in press release and it will most likely catch outside investor attention.
This first scenario is very conservative. Remember even with “write off” quarter combined company is averaging 12.5% Q/Q and 80% Y/Y. If the revenue numbers were less than this it might be a red flag for me. However I would also be very interested in on total forecasted revenue for 2022.
If they do report 347.6m and if one assumed a 7% Q/Q growth rate average for entire 2022 year, combined predicted 22 revenue would look like this 371.9, 398, 425.8, 455.6 Total of 1.65B
If one assumed a 5% Q/Q growth rate (extremely conservative) 2022 predicted revenue would look like this 365, 383.2, 402.4, 422.5 Total of 1.57B
The 10% growth rate above pretty conservative, let’s look at a 13% Q/Q growth rate which would give a Q4 2021 revenue of 357.5m That would represent a 112% Y/Y growth over TCNNF numbers or 50% Y/Y combined.
Combined predicted 2022 revenue using 7% Q/Q average growth rates are 382.5, 409.3, 438, 468.6 Total 1.7B Using 5% Q/Q growth rates 375.4, 394.1, 414, 434.5 Total 1.62B
Looking at a more aggressive 20% Q/Q growth rate reported revenues for Q4 2021 would be 379.2m which would be 125% Y/Y on Trulieve numbers or 59% Y/Y combined. I do think this would be attainable due to the really low Q4 results, which makes it easier to have a stronger Q/Q growth. Also remember this is a seasonally strong quarter due to the rise in population of both Arizona and Florida during winter months.
Combined predicted 2022 revenue using a 7% Q/Q growth rate would be 405.7, 434.1, 465, 497 Total 1.8B
If you look at the lowest predicted revenue for 2022 using my numbers it was 1.57B and the highest was 1.8B. That would represent a 24.2-39% Y/Y growth rate for a combined company that was growing 80% Y/Y in 2021. I personally think those estimates are too conservative.
2 billion in revenue off of a 20% Q4 result would represent a 54.3% Y/Y growth rate. I think this is more likely. I will be really interested in 2022 revenue guidance. If they guide 2 billion that would be super bullish sign to me. Guidance will always be conservative.
If they report anything less than 357m for Q4 and guide less than 1.8B for 2022 revenues I would have to re-evaluate my holdings.
Hopefully you find this exercise of some value.