Wow, TSLA is cratering after reporting earnings. It’s down to $360 afterhours and shows no sign of stopping. What a bloodbath.
Tesla’s Non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed by $0.21. Quite a disaster of a report.
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I’d say it was mixed. Tesla sold about 480,000 vehicles, which was a great quarter. Accordingly revenues were up BUT margins were down. They are making less money on every car, which has been the trend for a while.
Free cash flow was down due to increased CAPEX spending, but they said last quarter to expect that.
Energy business growth was very good, but that’s still a small part of the company.
High oil prices are good for EVs, and Trump has no idea how to end the Iran war, so I imagine sales should be strong next quarter as well.
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If only they had any new product revenue.
They do have one or two taxis in Orlando, announced - surprise - right before earnings.
Anyway, who cares?
I’m moving on to the rest of the galaxy.
And also the moon.
The problem is: Tesla has NOT delivered on Robo Taxi. It has NOT delivered.
The cars themselves other than the FSD, which is quite good, are at least two generations ild in battery technology and drive train technology.
While Tesla is the only electric car I would buy in the USA, I would not touch it in China, and probably not in Europe. In fact, if I was gung ho electric, the Rivian would at least get a look in the USA. But, the FSD is the only reason I look at an electric car in the USA and short comings of the car itself make me hit the pause button on buying a Tesla.
When Tesla delivers on Robo Taxi, they might start growing into the current valuation. It they upgrade their cars they might be competitive, but if they do not and if anyone gets close on FSD, not equal, close, then they are likely to be out of the car business altogether.
Soon
.
Qazulight
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Elon time. 
Edit:
I think the market over reacted. 3 year chart:
Next TSLA call expiration Aug 21. By then it should stabilize.
The Captain
What strike on this Aug 21 call?
At $320 right now. If I had the courage of my convictions I could’a made a fortune, I tells ya.
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$380.00 
The Captain
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- Cuda
- Wuda
- Shuda
The Captain
Maybe, maybe not. Making that fortune depends on both conviction AND on timing. You’ve been bearish on Tesla for 2 years now. Had you bought puts each month or two, you would have had to go through quite a few puts (that repeatedly dropped to zero or near zero) until you hit the “big one” today that quadrupled or quintupled your money. You might say “well, I would have bought LEAP puts”, aha, but the LEAP puts were extremely expensive and they wouldn’t have provided anything near a quadruple or quintuple, in fact, they may have provided only a very small return due to the loss of time value over the two years. Or worse, those LEAP puts may have expired last month on June 18th before the stock experienced this large drop.
Conviction + Timing = $$$ 
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I’ve seen $30 or $40 as a reasonable valuation for a slow growth auto manufacturer.
As a meme stock, anyone’s guess.
I’m good at conviction, terrible on timing.
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Hard to guess crazy volatility plus politics. TSLA short term is dangerous. For me it’s long term plus covered calls. The recent discussions have been quite enlightening. While my basic thinking stands I’m going to play it a bit safer based on the Delta .30 suggestion.
The Captain