Below is the quarterly revenue guidance given by TTD, the actual revenue achieved, the percentage beat, and the year over year actual revenue growth.
**Guide Rev % Beat Y/Y Growth**
Q416 62 72.4 17% 69.6%
Q117 43 53.4 24% 75.7%
Q217 67 72.8 9% 54.2%
Q317 76 79.4 4% 49.8%
Q417 101 102.6 2% 41.8%
Q118 73 85.7 17% 60.5%
Q218 103 112.3 9% 54.3%
Q318 116 118.8 2% 49.6%
Q418 147 160.5 9% 56.3%
Q119 116 121.0 4% 41.6%
Q219 154 159.9 4% 42.4%
Q319 163 164.2 1% 38.2%
Q419 213 **32.7% Guidance**
As the table above shows, TTD, since they have been a publicly traded company, has always beat their top of their quarterly revenue guidance.
CEO Green on the call said that we shouldn’t pay attention to the deceleration in 2019 and we should NOT be looking over such a short time period. He said that 2020 will likely be similar to 2018 in that we saw a reacceleration in revenue growth in 2018 (from 2017 when there was a growth deceleration). Green is a good salesman and is very enthusiastic about his company. However, I like to see the story match the financial results. The story does sound good, but many of us have been fooled (and burned) by good stories in the past. I have a 5.6% position in TDD and I’m inclined to hold it (neither add nor reduce to it) to see if TTD’s revenue reaccelerates in 2020. And given all the partnerships, investments in international markets, and shift to streaming, I would expect TTD to have a great 2020. If they don’t then there’s gotta be something wrong.
Chris