Yesterday, UBNT filed an 8K with their updated investor presentation. It is basically the same presentation that they used last time, but updated based on the year-end financials and the forecast for FY2018. See http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-JI74R/4474431496……
As part of the presentation, they list a goal of 5-30% CAGR for Service sales and 30-50% CAGR for Enterprise sales with an overall CAGR of 15-40% over the next 2-3 years. The TAM for Enterprise is $10-15B and is growing at 10-15% annually. Given that Enterprise sales is $410M, there is a lot of room to grow. With Enterprise representing 47% of total 2017 revenue, this fast growing segment will now have a bigger impact on overall revenue leading to faster growing revenue for the company in 2018. This supports the 2018 guidance. However, given Pera mentioned during the call that the guidance was based on the existing products and that new products would be gravy. Pera has a history of low-balling the guidance, so I think the company will beat the 2018 guidance. One would hope that with UBNT beating 2018 guidance that was much higher than analyst forecasts, the company might finally start getting some respect and a higher valuation.
I follow Pera and UBNT on Twitter and it looks like a new platform will be rolled out on Tuesday (8/15). Here is what Pera posted on Twitter recently: https://twitter.com/RobertPera/status/895451577997180928
“Ubiquiti’s next platform: FrontRow -Details on 8/15- I put my heart into this one; the whole team did! Free product to top 3 closest guesses”
Also on Twitter, UBNT retweeted a customer’s recent order of several products: https://twitter.com/WillieHowe/status/895772968038658048
I know this is anecdotal, but it is always good to see customers posting their excitement about UBNT products.
There’s also a recent Seeking Alpha article that describes UBNT’s moat:
One moat is obviously the business model. Hire the best engineers for the money by getting them from lower cost locations in Asia and Eastern Europe instead of going after expensive silicon valley engineers. Work with your loyal community of customers who market the product and give feedback on making the products better. This allows for superior products at lower prices, while still making a lot of money for the company. The article talks about their biggest moat, which is Robert Pera himself. Just as an investment initially in Berkshire was a bet on Buffett, an investment today is largely a bet on Pera. Right now, betting on Pera is still cheap at 16 times forward earnings given the track record of growth.