But the probability that that life (lives), whoever and where ever they are? Zeroing on this small insignificant speck of sand that we call Mother Earth?
Too many zeros after the decimal to type..
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
–cliff
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“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
One in a billion billion billion billion…
There’s only been intelligent life on the planet here for 50,000 years…capable of air travel, radar, very limited space travel… out of 15 billion years of the solar system.
The odds of having an equivalent ‘intelligent’ life, thousand of years advanced to have reliable space travel, meeting up with us primitives, is so tiny …it’s not worth worrying about. And their being able to ‘find’ us out of a billion billion billion star systems in just our galaxy, out of a billion billion billion galaxies. All of them hundreds or thousands of light years away.
Our nearest star is 4 light years away. At current speeds it would take us 100 years to get there, 100 years to get back…after you discover there is nothing there.
t.
Our nearest star is 4 light years away. At current speeds it would take us 100 years to get there, 100 years to get back…after you discover there is nothing there.
I bet it’s a quicker trip for the aliens.
intercst
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The probability that there IS ‘life’ out there, somewhere, seems like it would be a given. Likely many times over. Too many possibilities for it to be otherwise.
But the probability that that life (lives), whoever and where ever they are? Zeroing on this small insignificant speck of sand that we call Mother Earth?
Too many zeros after the decimal to type.
But the latter part of that assumes ONE instance of life out there.
I see no basis for that assumption.
Considering the calculations I did to estimate the number of opportunities life had to emerge on earth, in accordance with just one of the several families of theories on how that might have happened (we know it DID happen, but don’t know exactly how), I have to conclude that life emerged on nearly every planet with a water ocean - and more than a few planets that never had a water ocean but do or did have enough water to make it plausible - and maybe some with no water to speak of.
After that it gets complicated. For life on another planet to find its way HERE we need the planet to also have solid surface made of assorted minerals, and the life to survive long enough to crawl out on that solid surface and develop sapience and advanced technology. The planet can’t be too big (Earth is almost too big - not a whole lot larger and it wouldn’t be possible for a chemical rocket to put something in orbit, which kind of crimps plans for going into space) or too small (the important parts of the atmosphere will dissipate before life can get into space).
(I’m not worried about temperature range because the need for water - liquid - already limits that.)
And then we need either an EXTREMELY long-lived species, which significantly slows evolution; colony ships, which won’t be small and will either pass through quickly or stay and make their presence extremely known, but will NOT produce dozens or hundreds of random sightings spread across multiple decades; or some form faster-than-light travel (wormholes would qualify IF they don’t need equipment at the destination).
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I always thought this world mad of UFO sightings was interesting. Apparently UFO’s really like the USA . . . .
“world mad”… good one.
But I wouldn’t say they love the USA. Instead I’d say they love the Anglosphere. As I note that Britain and New Zealand, the more densely populated parts of Canada and Australia, and the more English-dominant parts of India and southern Africa are similarly highlighted. Also the formerly-British and tourist-trap areas of the Americas south of the US.
Not sure why Denmark, northern Germany, and the east side of Saudi Arabia glow too.
There’s only been intelligent life on the planet here for 50,000 years…capable of air travel, radar, very limited space travel… out of 15 billion years of the solar system.
A few errors in that.
-
The solar system is probably less than 5 billion years old - not 15 billion. The universe is circa 15 billion years old.
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H. sapiens heidelbergensis (whether the “sapiens” belongs in there is debated, but we know they could interbreed with H. s. neanderthalensis, H. s. sapiens, and H. s. denisova, and that’s good enough for me) was around 700,000 years ago.
-
In terms of actual ability in those specific technologies, we’re talking less than a century - if we’re talking theoretical ability, we need to go at least several tens of thousands of years in the past and there’s no reason to think we’re going to stop having those abilities tomorrow.
Now there is the issue of explaining why we have so many claims of UFO sightings (and their apparent preference for English-speaking areas) yet so few verifiably-alien contacts. Unless there is the somewhat improbable combination of (a) interstellar travel is so cheap that high-school kids do it to pull pranks on primitive races and (b) there’s an interstellar government trying to enforce a hands-off-the-primitives rule.
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whoops misfire was supposed to be email, FA in Tim
Maybe our once advanced species survived a cataclysmic event, putted around space for ten thousand years, only to return as ‘aliens.’
They came back to see if they left the oven on.
2 Likes
“After that it gets complicated. For life on another planet to find its way HERE we need the planet to also have solid surface made of assorted minerals, and the life to survive long enough to crawl out on that solid surface and develop sapience and advanced technology. The planet can’t be too big (Earth is almost too big - not a whole lot larger and it wouldn’t be possible for a chemical rocket to put something in orbit, which kind of crimps plans for going into space) or too small (the important parts of the atmosphere will dissipate before life can get into space).”
In addition, the planet needs an iron core, liquid, to provide a magnetoshere of protection against cosmic and solar radiation. Without that, life on Earth wouldn’t exist. It also needs a planet not subject to massive solar ejections from the sun - a ‘well behaved’ sun - and most aren’t.
As spock might put it - there are very few “M” class planets with oxygen atmospheres, a ‘climate’ and a mild one - liquid water - and the appropriate minerals. Of all the planets in our solar system, only one has survived with ‘life’. Mars liquid core solidified - no protective magnetosphere - atmosphere, if it has one, ripped away by solar winds. Venus? 600F at the surface…
IF, and only if, some civilization invents a ‘warp drive’ if that is even possible, the distances between habitable planets are measured in generations of people. Hundreds or thousands of years. Plus of course, all the matter/anti-matter engines, protective ‘shields’, etc.
Even with warp drive, exploring and finding the one in a billion planet that ‘might’ have life with the right conditions - would take untold extra generations - or ten thousand ships ‘exploring’ the universe…
With everyone now carrying a hand held picture taker…seen any good UFO pics lately? Hmmm… with all the UFO landings, abductions, it makes you wonder.
t.
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Has everyone here forgotten we have pyramids? And you don’t believe in aliens? SHEESH! 
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Has everyone here forgotten we have pyramids? And you don’t believe in aliens? SHEESH!
Have tried to get any tile work
done lately. I think all those aliens from Mexico got in their spaceships and went home.
Cheers
Qazulight
1 Like
warrl
The probability that there IS ‘life’ out there, somewhere, seems like it would be a given. Likely many times over. Too many possibilities for it to be otherwise.
But the probability that that life (lives), whoever and where ever they are? Zeroing on this small insignificant speck of sand that we call Mother Earth?
Too many zeros after the decimal to type.
But the latter part of that assumes ONE instance of life out there.
I see no basis for that assumption.
OK. I guess. Just too many zeros in the numbers. Again, I guess!
Has everyone here forgotten we have pyramids?
True dat! The E.T.’s needed something to store their grain in, of course.
Pete
"Has everyone here forgotten we have pyramids? "
So? Just a lot of work to build one. Folks know how it was done. Nothing magic.
t.
Ok folks, UFO is so 20th century.
The cool people call them UAPs, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena.
Neil deGrasse Tyson has 2 interesting comments on UAP (yes, I’m that cool).
-
Why don’t we have a clear picture of them given that just about everyone on the planet is walking around with a high definition camera in their pocket?
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It’s probably just a software glitch in the electronic tracking equipment.
Well, the Pentagon shot #2 down in their exceedingly boring and over-hyped 2021 UAP report to Congress. The only thing interesting in the report (IMNSHO) was the fact that the Pentagon acknowledged they are tracking something and they’re tracking them on multiple tracking devices at the same time.
So just what are they tracking? Many pilots (military and commercial), usually serious and sober individuals, are seeing something and are finally being encouraged to report sitings without jeopardizing their careers.
A new type of weather phenomenon never before detected? Highly unlikely.
Off planet space craft? Also highly unlikely given that vast distances that separate us, just within our galaxy. Don’t even start me on intergalactic distances (although if we stick around for 4.5 billion years or so the Andromeda Galaxy and the Milky Way will start to merge. Better plan to be out of town when that occurs.)
Then again, look at the strides we clever monkeys have made. 200 years ago the fastest you could travel was on the back of a horse. It took weeks, if not months, to travel from Europe to America. Hard to imagine the advances well make if we manage to survive 200 more years, let alone a thousand years. Especially with advanced AI. And it’s certainly possible that some alien species has survived for many thousands of years. Maybe they figured out how to bend space time.
While I’m absolutely certain life exists elsewhere in our universe, I’m a skeptic about them reaching Mother Earth. One thing I’m certain of, when alien life sets foot on Earth, they will be the first intelligent life form to do so. 
Ok, so that leaves the possibility of something of human origin.
If so, most likely something top secret (skunk works) from the US. Who else has the resources? Maybe China. Less likely Russia or Israel.
Plus, it seems most recordings are from US military ships and planes. What better way to test new technology than against the best tracking devices on the planet. Which also explains Neil’s first question about why we don’t have civilian pictures of them.
Lastly, it has been noted that the UAPs that have been tracked making maneuvers that would kill a human. Which brings up the possibility of remote or advanced AI control of the craft (especially AI if it’s alien, given the time it would take to travel).
Anyway, some random ramblings from someone who’s curiosity is piqued by UAPs.
AW
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I can’t remember where I read it but I once read a mathematical analysis like that and the big question was why we are not up to our eyeballs in aliens.
The key was the billions of years that intelligent life has had to spread once it emerged.
The conclusion was that traveling faster than light was likely impossible which makes interstellar so impractical that it is next to nonexistent.
Without being able to expand beyond a single solar system the lifespan of an intelligent civilization was problematic since there are so many things that can cause it to permanently collapse over a time span of a million years when they are not expanding.
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The Fermi Paradox (where is everybody?) and the Drake equation (product of probabilities needed for communicative life) frame the E.T. discussion, but do not give much indication of what is out there.
The Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (a US Navy program) was unable to identify 143 objects spotted between 2004 and 2021. Less than 10 a year. Maybe the Air Force is testing something.
Project Blue Book (a US Air Force program) was unable to identify 701 sightings between 1947 to 1969. About 30 a year. Maybe weather or new technology.
There were over 10,000 UFO reported sightings every year since 1990, mostly in the US. Most of these are probably noise.
Whatever it is, and some of the stories are mysterious, the possibly credible reports are rare, and confused reports are common. Science often finds rare events (e.g. colliding black holes), but it takes effort and time, and studying the brain might be more rewarding.
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But if Navy pilots are reporting this stuff and potentially putting their careers at risk, maybe there’s something there?
It’s the exact opposite. If a Navy pilot sees something and doesn’t report it, their career could be at risk. Reporting something, that doesn’t eventually become verified, happens all the time, and is expected.
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And their being able to ‘find’ us out of a billion billion billion star systems in just our galaxy, out of a billion billion billion galaxies. All of them hundreds or thousands of light years away.
So you’re telling me there is a chance? 
Desert (ET phone me) Dave
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And their being able to ‘find’ us out of a billion billion billion star systems in just our galaxy, out of a billion billion billion galaxies. All of them hundreds or thousands of light years away.
A billion billion billion… that would be
1,000,000,000 000,000,000 000,000,000 stars.
More common estimates from astronomers run from
100,000,000,000 to
400,000,000,000 stars.
You’re positing a similarly large number of galaxies in the universe, whereas the scientists suggest the number is
2,000,000,000,000 galaxies.
Also, not all the stars are "hundreds or thousands of light-years away". An estimated 800 stars, including at least 50 Sun-like stars, are within a mere 100 light-years of the Sun. Assuming consistently even distribution (don't make this assumption while engaging in interstellar travel!), within 149 light-years - so you can't even round it up to 200 and barely qualify for "hundreds of light-years" - there would be approximately 2,650 stars, of which approximately 165 would be Sun-like.
And they don't exactly have to find US. If you hypothesize (for the sake of discussion only, not suggesting this actually exists) another inhabited planet with a level of technology *exactly* equal to ours, WE TODAY could detect it at a range of up to 30 light-years, maybe further. I would assume we'll be able to do better than that by the time we're plausibly able to send ships to other stars.