As you say the Russians have “deeper pockets”.
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LOL! Russia does not have deeper pockets than NATO + Ukraine.
NATO + Ukraine = > one billion people
Russia = 145 million people
Jaak
1 Like
This situation may well resolve itself over the next year, unfortunately it’s hard to see how it is going to work out well for the US.
US policy and attitude towards Russia over several decades has driven Russia into the arms of the Chinese, thus ensuring China access to crucial natural resources and depriving the West of those resources. Many of these resources are crucial and Russia is a major supplier, like copper, silver, titanium etc.
A war against China is not going to be like it was against Germany and Japan where they had no oil or iron etc.
There is a cultural dimension to this war that I have not seen many in the US pick up on. Russia is going through a Christian Orthodox revival, they do not want a US sponsored state on their borders with all the wokeism that comes with it. Either does Poland, Albania, Bulgaria, Rumania and Hungry. These places see the US as having an abhorrent and decadent culture and they want nothing to do with it.
Russia has a strategy and to flip NATO countries via energy strangulation. It should be apparent sanctions are working against the West not Russia. Already 100k Czechs are in the streets calling for an end to the war. What happens if it spreads to Germany,Italy, etc as winter sets in. Already Germany is slowing down production. Plus potential food shortages in places around the world.
The downside to the US is immense, including the end of NATO or what remains is nothing but a facade, and trade conducted in Euro’s and roubles not the US dollar and even the potential end of the EU.
What is the US strategy to win, and what does winning look like?
In the same context that the Arab countries have a completely different attitude towards the Crusaders, many western European countries have personal very real experience with Russia and the fact that a few tens of thousands hold a couple of noisy demonstrations will not change that.
Ask the average Czech or Hungarian or Latvian or Finn how they would feel to have Soviet, sorry - Russian - troops cross their borders and you would get a completely different answer than the demonstrations might make you think.
We, in the US, have recently experienced the sub-rosa influence of Russia in our elections and they continue to have a significant effect through their use of social media which continues to affect a minority of Americans. What you are seeing in these demonstrations is the equivalent misinformation campaign waged in Europe.
This is a war taking place on many levels. I suspect the CIA (et al) are running their own campaigns in Russia (though hindered by the government controlling the traditional media) at the same time as Russia is at work trying to create disruptions and unrest in the US, UK and EU.
Jeff
5 Likes
LOL! Russia does not have deeper pockets than NATO + Ukraine.
NATO + Ukraine = > one billion people
Russia = 145 million people
Jaak
The “deeper pockets” I & the OP was referring to manpower & military equipment. Russia has more men than Ukraine & so far more equipment. The EU nations have run of equipment to send to the Ukraine. And of course no troops from the EU or NATO are fighting for Ukraine.
One possibly correct way to read Putin’s more recent moves is that he has a huge and paralyzing fear of mobilizing the (quoting tjscott) more men than Ukraine & so far more equipment.
Putin, more than almost anyone else alive today because of his personal working history, has vivid memories and accurate knowledge of how the Soviet Union stupidly and unthinkingly lost legitimacy and support and existence by sending Russian boys to die needlessly and uselessly in Afghanistan (shades of Vietnam and !!! Afghanistan. [Hello, was anyone home?]. Yes, the USA was even more stupid and unthinking in repeating the idiocy when Afghanistan’s perils were even better known, pace the Anglo Afghani wars, but that is another cycle of stories).
Putin has a clear red line – he knows actually mobilizing (a clearly defined legal act in Russia necessary before sending draftees to fight outside Russia) would be catastrophic for him, and would rhyme with Andropov in Afghanistan – and so he is desperate to finish his imagined quick “special military operation” before the shot hits the fun. He designed the attack on Ukraine on that basis. It did not succeed because his idiot underlings were lying corrupt butt-covering lickspittles like those that advised Andropov on Afghanistan (oh, and also some USA prezs in a carbon copy).
Now Putin is desperately trying every key he has left to “finish up without disgrace”, making him extremely dangerous. Nuclear mishap, world starvation, give China whatever it wants, IWannaMatchCatherineinHistory dangerous.
If soldiers do not feel inspired to fight it does not matter how many of them you have.
david fb
(I knew gay rights would win waaaay back in the 60’s because so so so many of us would
have rather died than put up with the still dominant tormenting insulting ignorant stupid mob theocratic suppression and lying of normal culture. Unfortunately with AIDS many many did die, but did so as furious witnesses to truth and human dignity so as to help win the war.
In the long run morality and justice often rise up as guiding lights for people, and then enough people overwhelm their fears and doubts and FIGHT, and when they fight they fight like it matters more than their own lives. I am hearing that now from Ukrainians but not Russians.)
(BUT, nevertheless I am pessimistic. Mostly people want to eat, sleep safe and dry, and have no interest in their childrens lives because hey that is a long time from now. Ukraine will remain independent but the world is going to have a hell of a lot of suffering for a very long time.)
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Putin has a clear red line – he knows actually mobilizing (a clearly defined legal act in Russia necessary before sending draftees to fight outside Russia) would be catastrophic for him, and would rhyme with Andropov in Afghanistan – and so he is desperate to finish his imagined quick “special military operation” before the shot hits the fun. He designed the attack on Ukraine on that basis. It did not succeed because his idiot underlings were lying corrupt butt-covering lickspittles like those that advised Andropov on Afghanistan (oh, and also some USA prezs in a carbon copy).
Here’s the irony: Putin was one of those lying corrupt butt-covering lickspittles. For some reason, he thought his career arc of lying, corruption, butt-covering and lickspittling wouldn’t be copied by his underlings.
Surprise! Turns out his toadies are just as corrupt as he was.
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tjscott writes:
The EU nations have run of equipment to send to the Ukraine.
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That is a BS statement with no backup. Where is your link?
You forgot that NATO is the military backup for Ukraine with more equipment than the rotting Russian military. Russians can not even manufacture its own weapons let alone manufacture high tech weapons. Russia has to go to terrorist countries to buy cheap rockets, artillery shells, drones and more.
I wish you would stop supporting Putin lies about NATO & EU running out of military weapons.
Jaak
5 Likes
The downside to the US is immense, including the end of NATO or what remains is nothing but a facade, and trade conducted in Euro’s and roubles not the US dollar and even the potential end of the EU.
What is the US strategy to win, and what does winning look like?
The upside is the US emerges more powerful, richer, and more influential than before. And the US has already won. The only question is how big the victory is. Right now, it looks like it is pretty big.
Most or all NATO nations have announced defense budget increases, which means in part buying weapons systems from the US and accepting US military doctrine. Plus there will be two new NATO countries, Sweden which has been neutral for over 100 years, and Finland which has been neutral for almost that long. That’s a slam dunk victory right there. The US is the de facto leader of NATO, which means the US is more influential in that arena than before. NATO power is increasing and therefore US power is increasing. And many former Warsaw Pact countries are donating their Soviet-era arms to Ukraine in exchange for modern US EQ, which we are happy to sell to them and ring up the profits.
Similarly, Russian military equipment has been objectively shown to be junk. Nobody wants that stuff. Militaries want to buy superior US/NATO equipment, which again is largely manufactured in the US, to our specifications. This weakens Putin and anyone allied with him. If you want good military EQ, gotta play ball with the US.
Putin has cut off natural gas supplies to Europe. This made the US the largest LNG exporter in the world. Gas sales that used to go to Putin are now flowing to the United States at premium prices.
Putin’s busy buying drones from Iran and shells from North Korea. That’s like a high school kid buying weed from a sixth grader. Going forward militaries will have to decide if they want to buy garbage, scarce EQ from Russia, or buy quality, abundant EQ from the US/NATO. Which would you choose?
On the home front, US politicians who are sympathetic to Putin have been busy scrubbing their websites removing any statements of their past support. “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”
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Russia has a strategy and to flip NATO countries via energy strangulation. It should be apparent sanctions are working against the West not Russia. Already 100k Czechs are in the streets calling for an end to the war. What happens if it spreads to Germany, Italy, etc as winter sets in. Already Germany is slowing down production. Plus potential food shortages in places around the world.
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LOL! where did you get this piece of nonsense? From the Russian state-run news agency Tass?
Jaak
3 Likes
And many former Warsaw Pact countries are donating their Soviet-era arms to Ukraine in exchange for modern US EQ, which we are happy to sell to them and ring up the profits.
There’s a quick follow on to this. It’s a really big deal when you switch “vendors”. In the airline business it means you have to retool your repair facilities. You have to have multiple sets of spare parts. Your people need to be retrained. Your sub vendors have to get with the program, or you need to find new ones in that supply chain too. That’s why Boeing and Airbus (to use an example) work so hard to “crack the egg” and get the first of their planes into an airline of the competitors - and why it’s so hard.
Having Warsaw Pact countries dump their inventories and move to Western arms is a huge deal now and for the foreseeable future. It makes them dependent on us, it moves them even further from their Soviet past, it produces business for US and EU companies (and takes it away from Russians).
That’s a victory, long term, for years to come.
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That is a BS statement with no backup. Where is your link?
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-pentagon-ammunition-…
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/11/germany-limited-ar…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-reports-shortage-…
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme…
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-04-26/ukraine-russi…
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-german-weapons-shortage/…
https://hindustannewshub.com/television-news/eu-member-count…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/22/uk-anti-tan…
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Your statement was that they “had run [out] of equipment…” Your links don’t support that claim.
From the first link:
The Wall Street Journal, citing an unnamed Pentagon official, reported that there are “uncomfortably low” levels of 155mm Howitzer munitions in the military’s stockpile. How low? Well, apparently the U.S. has sent as much as 806,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition to Kyiv and what’s left has the DoD worried.
“It is not at the level we would like to go into combat,” the unnamed defense official told the Wall Street Journal, regarding the 155mm supplies.
Being below comfort level is not the same thing as being out.
Second link also doesn’t support that claim:
Germany has almost exhausted its ability to supply Ukraine with weapons from its army reserves, but is working on direct deliveries from the arms industry, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said Saturday.
“For deliveries coming from the Bundeswehr’s stocks, I have to say honestly that we have reached a limit,” she told German daily Augsburger Allgemeine.
The German army must maintain its capacity to act and be able to “guarantee the defense of the country and the (NATO) alliance,” she added.
“But that doesn’t mean we can’t do more for Ukraine, that’s why we have clarified what the industry can provide directly” to Kyiv, Lambrecht said.
Instead of using reserves, Germany is going to instead have them ship directly from the factory. That seems like a wise option.
Third link also suggests that supplies are low and not out:
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D, Connecticut) said that the US has sent about a third of its Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, he wrote on Twitter.
Is it fair to assume the rest of the links have similar information and that you simply incorrectly conflated low to being OUT?
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Being below comfort level is not the same thing as being out.
So you believe the US will further depleted its reserves to continue supplying the Ukraine?
Germany has almost exhausted its ability to supply Ukraine with weapons from its army reserves, but is working on direct deliveries from the arms industry, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said Saturday.
You don’t flip a switch and equipment immediately comes out especially as that equipment require semiconductor chips*.
Is it fair to assume the rest of the links have similar information and that you simply incorrectly conflated low to being OUT?
Believe what you will.
*https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme…
The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.
This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined.
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So you believe the US will further depleted its reserves to continue supplying the Ukraine?
My belief is not relevant. You claimed that we had run out of equipment. You have yet post any evidence of that claim.
Even your follow up link does not support that claim. Perhaps just admit it was bit of hyperbole instead of doubling down on what appears to be a false claim.
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“That’s a victory, long term, for years to come.”
I hope that the Ukrainian people will overcom this deep and hideous trauma and will be able to enjoy the reconstruction of the destroyed territories.
Still, this is a huge human tragedy, even if (like you said) for the US that´s a long term victory.
Perhaps just admit it was bit of hyperbole instead of doubling down on what appears to be a false claim.
I believe there is no/little spare equipment available to send without depleting necessary reserves. It will take a long time to replenish stinger & javelins stocks already sent. And if you cannot or are unwilling to deplete a reserve-you are out of equipment or munitions.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/22/pentagon-scrambles-…
there are two main hurdles to quickly increasing missile production. First, the hundreds of small suppliers that form the backbone of the industrial base are working to locate the required components to build new missiles, including rare earth materials and electrical components that can be difficult to source quickly.
Second, companies are also waiting to ensure funding is locked in before investing in increasing production capacity, over worries that investments in raw materials and manufacturing capability won’t be paid for.
The US military has been complaining about low munition prior to Ukraine-Russia War.
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/global-forc…
the lead time for munitions production can be as long as 18 months
More hyperbole:
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-02-24/fed-up-ge…
German army chief says service ‘stands bare’ from neglect as its forces are placed on deployment alert
The highest ranking officer in the German army on Thursday publicly lamented years of fiscal neglect and the army’s deteriorating readiness, as the U.S. and NATO allies mobilize in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Mais’ comments Thursday morning came ahead of Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht’s announcement that Germany’s defense forces were being placed on national alert in preparation for a possible NATO deployment.
But Mais cast doubt on Germany’s capabilities.
“The options we can offer policymakers to support the Alliance are extremely limited,” Mais wrote.
I also believe there is large gap of what military preparedness is & what appears in the news and what our politicians tell us.
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More hyperbole:
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-02-24/fed-up-ge……
German army chief says service ‘stands bare’ from neglect as its forces are placed on deployment alert
The highest ranking officer in the German army on Thursday publicly lamented years of fiscal neglect and the army’s deteriorating readiness, as the U.S. and NATO allies mobilize in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
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Your hyperbole was published on the day that Russia invaded Ukraine!
A few days later Germany made a big announcement:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense…
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a plan to beef up the German military on Sunday, pledging €100 billion ($112.7 billion) of the 2022 budget for the armed forces and repeating his promise to reach the 2% of gross domestic product spending on defense in line with NATO demands.
Scholz announced the new allocation in a speech during a special session of parliament on Germany’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He said the spending would include investments and armaments projects for the German military.
Scholz also said Germany would supply the Ukrainian military with weaponry, in a reversal of previous policy.
Jaak
Ukraine’s strategy seems to be to cut off resupply of Russian troops on the west side of the Dnipro River by destroying the river’s bridges and then try to push them back eastwards (or encircle/capture them). The advantage that Russia has is that, while the offense can choose the time and place of the battle, the defense has the opportunity to have prepared defensible positions.
That seems to be the logical strategy, and what Ukraine was telegraphing. But while Russia was focused on the south, the real action is in the east in the Izyum-Kharkiv area where Ukraine is attacking Russian forces that were depleted by sending them to reinforce the south.
Russian and Ukrainian sources have confirmed Ukraine has broken through Russian lines in multiple locations in the Izyum-Kharkiv area, including capturing the town of Balakliya. Balakliya is a road and rail hub and losing those nodes will complicate Russian logistics. Russian Milbloggers reported air support was unavailable due to robust Ukrainian air defenses.
A little day brightener, I thought. Maybe not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.
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Here’s the irony: Putin was one of those lying corrupt butt-covering lickspittles. For some reason, he thought his career arc of lying, corruption, butt-covering and lickspittling wouldn’t be copied by his underlings.
Is this known to be the case? I always was under the impression that Putin rose so high because he had dirt on everyone from his decades in the KGB. So, in effect, he was the one that everyone had to toady to in order to survive.
Here’s the irony: Putin was one of those lying corrupt butt-covering lickspittles. For some reason, he thought his career arc of lying, corruption, butt-covering and lickspittling wouldn’t be copied by his underlings.
Is this known to be the case? I always was under the impression that Putin rose so high because he had dirt on everyone from his decades in the KGB.
We don’t know that either. Though it could be true.
What we do know is that Yeltsin pulled Putin from obscurity to prime minister in 1999. Yeltsin didn’t hang around long (impeachment threat*) & stepped down from the presidency some months later & Putin assume that role & elections were held a few months later.
The rise of the oligarchs began under Yeltsin with the aid of US economists self enriching themselves while in Russia. I’ve posted about here previously.
Yeltsin could possibly have been corrupted & benefited from his association with the oligarchs.
https://www.hoover.org/research/yeltsin-putin
On his first day in office, acting Russian President Putin pardoned Yeltsin for any possible misdeeds and granted him total immunity from prosecution (or even from being searched and questioned) for any and all actions committed while in office. Yeltsin also received a life pension and a state dacha. An orderly transition of power? Perhaps. A demonstration that you can get away with a lot while in public office? Certainly.
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