Ukrainian offesive underway

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A top Ukrainian general’s assessment that the war with Russia is a stalemate is fueling partisan passions as a debate on whether to bolster Kyiv with more weapons roils Congress.

But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”

Zelensky’s stubbornness, some of his aides say, has hurt their team’s efforts to come up with a new strategy, a new message.

The above seem worrisome about the fate of Ukraine.
It is even worse if one buys into the Responsible State Craft analysis:

The narrative dam our media has built around the reality in Ukraine is apparently breaking wide open, and the truth is finally spilling out:

- Ukraine’s war aims are unrealistic.

- Staggering casualties have decimated the Ukrainian army. Ukraine has refused to disclose casualty counts throughout the war, dismissing the increasingly-credible reports of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian casualties as Russian propaganda. But another close aide to Zelensky tells Shuster that casualties are so horrific that “even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, ‘we don’t have the men to use them.’”

- Morale is collapsing. Even patriots don’t want to die serving as canon fodder for a doomed military strategy. Within the officer ranks, there is growing dissension bordering on mutiny. One close Zelensky aide complained to Shuster that some front-line commanders have begun refusing orders to advance even when they come directly from the office of the president. When Shuster asked a senior military officer about those complaints, the officer said that some officers have no choice but to refuse orders that are simply impossible.

- Corruption is uncontrollable. It has long been a “Putin talking point” that Ukraine’s government was shot through with corruption. And yet Zelensky has been getting an earful about exactly that from its U.S. and NATO allies, who don’t want to see their billions of dollars in aid disappear into the pockets of corrupt officials. Zelensky has taken some actions, like the sacking of his Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov for corrupt procurement practices. But to really root out corruption, Zelensky will have to fire most of his government. A top presidential adviser admitted as much to Shuster once his audio recorder had been shut off: “People are stealing like there is no tomorrow.”
Supposedly the above items were said to the Time article’s author (Shuster) but did not make it into the Time article.

What to believe? Our media reports on our nation’s government and military leaders belief in the Ukrainian cause and progress.
Our media reported the same in regards to Iraq & Afghanistan conflicts while trillion of dollars were spent there and on each succeeding new commanders in those Areas of Operations who saw victory just around the bend.
Yet when we look back upon Iraq & Afghanistan: the results were quite different than the media stories on the situations when reported upon during the wars.
Is the media reporting realistic or rather tinted how our government wishes the conflict will turn out?

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3088&context=parameters
What Went Wrong in Afghanistan?

I think we should call off all support of Ukraine. After all those Russians do have a legitimate claim. Besides who puts democratic republics first? And has Ukraine ever been a democratic republic? There is a lot of unjust prejudice against Russia. People should respect Putin.

As for the killing Ukraine is totally wrong. I am not saying Russia is right. Just conveniently forgetting reality and batting it around. I think next Wednesday I will register with the zealots committee at the fool for straightening nothing in life.

My morality has been offended.

When I study the world I conveniently skip all other global problems. I like to just focus on how evil those Ukrainians are not to be Russians. Rolling over and playing dead would be a solution.

How can not all people see this as I do? My moral high ground is impenetrable. No need to talk with me I am all set.

Russia has lost over 303k lives in this war. Everyone can see how evil Ukraine is being. No one doubts it. Doubt and zealot do not exist in anyone. We must all be zealots.

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Outside of the Ukrainian troops being tired, you really can’t believe anything you read, especially in Shiny media, considering Ukraine has been targeted by the “America first” crowd as expendable.

Steve

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The only factor in the war that will matter is how soon Russia gets to a completely uncontrollable hyper inflation. That is the only thing that can make the war unaffordable to Russia and cause even worse problems in Russia without the US getting militarily involved on Russian soil.

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That’s what I was thinking as I ran down the list of gloomy Ukraine headlines. How much of it is Underdog talk on the part of Ukraine (and possibly our own Gov) to keep up a sense of urgency in The West? How much is The Media looking for their usual David & Goliath / “We need a horse race or it’s not interesting enough to cover” story? And how much is The Real Deal?

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Hype and hysteria is what the media does. I have noticed, in the coverage of Gaza, that the area has been “24 hours from running out of fuel/food/water”, for at least two weeks.

Steve

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But those pesky Israelis said Hamas has stores of everything. The question was would Hamas support Gazans outside of their group?

Well, either Hamas is sharing it’s stash, contrary to what the Shiny media says, or the Shiny media is blowing smoke, as usual. Did you notice the hysterical headlines yesterday “150 Million people enduring sub-freezing temperatures!!!” Cold weather in the winter? Oh, the horror!

Steve

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My mother raised me by saying Jackie Kennedy’s eyes are too close together. I finally asked her what she meant. She said the press used to say her eyes were too far apart.

It is all crap. You have to love the zealots. sarcasm

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I have to ask; where do you get your information? Particularly to base such a silly statement on! Do you have someone drop by and whisper the facts/truths to you over coffee? Are you omni-present everywhere in the world at the same time? Is there a podcast/tv show/radio presentation that would clear this all up for all of us? Otherwise you are ‘reading’ something from someone. I sub to the NYTimes, the Post and the Guardian and TPM. I believe I’m well informed.

JimA

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@steve203 That is a point in and of itself to turn out every government in American history. George Washington was so sick of it he decided in part because of it to not seek a third term. It matters to pollute the atmosphere no one really wins. You do not want a complete win. Think Hitler, Stalin, and Mao. Those braggarts had 100% truth.

With the exception of the Gulf War, our nation’s success in military interventions has been dismal*.
Corporate special interest influence in media and our nation’s government has been on the increase. “America first” will have little influence agin the massive amounts of money flowing into our representatives pocket & ownership of the media.
One ponders the trillions spent on our nation’s interventions and annual defense budget tab might have been spent better toward infrastructure & environmental improvements.
We should think back the the 1970’s. Why say you. It was horrible with double digit inflation, Vietnam & Watergate. Yet during that time our nation thru the EPA & large national expenditures was instrumental in cleaning-up of America’s pervasive industrial pollution of the air, soil & water. Of course that does not count as it didn’t generate profits or productivity as measured in financial terms. Yet the gains in quality of life was improved via improvements in air and water quality & public health. We’re still collecting “dividends” on the investments made in the 1970s. And more investment is needed especially as we expect to transition to an EV transportation nation.
To borrow a commie quote. "We will bury you " Putin by our economic system as we buried the Soviet Union in 1991.

*The Pentagon budget is chock-full of waste, new weapons systems are so complicated they don’t actually work. Weapon system acquisitions seem more based on how profitable it is for the defense industry rather than how effective a system is.
A recent news report illustrates the incompetence or perhaps the slanted corporate influence upon the US defense Dept.

Nowhere in the unredacted portions of the report is any definitive statement about whether the A-10 or the F-35 was deemed to be superior for conducting any of the three missions in either permissive or contested environments.
Perhaps it doesn’t matter as All of this is becoming increasingly moot as the Air Force is now pushing ahead with plans to retire the entire A-10 fleet by 2030, if not before then.

What I most important is the following:

A big question that remains is what the Air Force will or won’t do in the end to preserve the institutional knowledge that the A-10 community has built up over the years.
**
The Air Force isn’t even pretending to train F-35 pilots for the role now so accumulated attack pilot knowledge will very rapidly evaporate."

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So has the Media has changed from the days of Murrow & Cronkite & Brinkley. Its function is no longer to inform but to attract ratings & provide entertainment?

Leap, an excellent vicious post.

I will (with no twist added) say that the main thing that happened over the last year of horrors in the Ukraine War is that Ukraine survived, Russia had outsized losses, and that Ukraine showed that with ATACMS and F-16’s they will be able to cause Putin enormous problems.

david fb

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Hold on…we had WW III? No one told me!

Biden’s move today was to placate everyone. He does not want any defectors. Does he mean it? Of course he does. We all mean it.

Harry Truman realized, early on, that every newspaper was biased, some one way, some the other way. He read about five newspapers every day. After reading five versions of the “news”, he was able to filter out the biases and get close to the truth.

Unfortunately, the community antenna in the condo went off-line some years ago, and Windsor is too far over the horizon for my indoor antenna, so I can’t watch the Canadian national news anymore.

However, PBS offers me a slate of news from the UK, Germany, France, and Japan. That being said, since the BBC moved it’s late broadcast from London to the US, it’s quality has deteriorated as it adopts more USian biases. But even the BBC doesn’t allocate as much time as the USian media does to advertising dressed up as “news”. Since I bought a new TV a couple months ago, which includes a free streaming service, I can also look in on Sky News.

My only regret in firing Comcast years ago, is I can’t watch Fox Noise to hear their extremist blather.

Steve

The Ukrainian offensive hasn’t been a success, but it hasn’t been a failure either. Ukraine made some localized advances in the south, but was unable achieve the obvious objective of cutting the main logistics lines connecting Russia with Crimea. Russia still has a much larger army and had prepared extensive defensive positions with minefields, overlapping fields of artillery fire, etc. which Ukraine can penetrate, but only slowly and at great cost.

One event that is somewhat underreported is that Russia has launched a massive offensive in the east, which has been almost entirely repelled by Ukraine. Open sources report huge Russian losses and Ukraine has begun to successfully counter attack in some cases.

My conclusion is that neither side has the capability to break through the other’s fortified lines. Russia seems to be the objectively worse army but mostly makes up for it by having a large numerical advantage. I’m skeptical of casualty reports, but most credible analysts put Russia KIA around 120-150K, something like that, which is an enormous number and I have to think that the eventually the Russian military won’t be able to sustain losses at this rate. Ukrainian casualties are about a third of that.

There is tons of nostalgic love for the A-10 and her proponents want her to keep flying forever. But the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan showed that her most effective weapons did not include the iconic 30 mm cannon, they were standoff weapons like missiles and smart bombs which are more accurate, cause more damage, and lead to fewer friendly fire incidents.

The A-10 worked fine vs. ISIS and the Taliban, but flies too low and slow to be effective against an enemy with modern air defenses, like Russia. On a modern battlefield you’ll need to deliver standoff weapons with a bit of stealth. The A-10 doesn’t fill that role.

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Thing is, the 35 isn’t “stealthy” either, the moment you start hanging things like payload on it. But the 35 costs a heck of a lot more, and that is good for Lockheed.

Steve

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