A brief comment on Upstart (UPST): It seems to me that this board has over-analyzed the company.
Two of the key lessons I learned from Saul were to keep my analysis simple and to not fall in love with the story of a stock. If I remember right, my first big reminder of these lessons was with Infinera (INFN). There was a lot of detailed analysis and I thought I knew exactly what was going to happen with the stock. I could not have been more wrong. I was so buried in what should happen based on the detailed analysis I ignored the harsh reality of a simple look at what was actually happening with the numbers.
I see the same mistake being made on this board with Upstart. An incredible amount of amazing research has been performed on Upstart by members of this forum. Many complex calculations have been performed and many compelling stories have been constructed. I fear that in this dearth of information that the simple perspective is being forgotten. I have seen that being too familiar with a company all too often leads to an excess of excitement about a company and thus an excess of investment into a company. If earnings fail to meet those expectations, even good earnings can feel like a betrayal.
Personally, I have ignored 90% of the UPST posts on this board as I do not want to have the mistaken impression I understand the company better than I actually do. I skim news headlines, read an occasional interview, and twice a quarter update my calculations (before and after earnings). I put no more time into Upstart than any of my other companies.
My own analysis is very similar to the simple perspective recently shared by Saul a week ago, though I feel less certain of the interpretation than Saul is (not surprising given our difference in experience):
Keep your analysis simple and keep the excitement under control.