US job inflation

Deficit spending creating government jobs

Again, the government sector in December ranked high in job creation.

Not a sign of a healthy economy:

8.7 million Americans, a record high, hold multiple jobs to make ends meet

It’s all a bunch of lies, paid for by borrowing!

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I think that might be a little hyperbolic Divitias. If the government is restating and telling everyone that they made a mistake it can’t be a lie, that is called a mistake. Now, why do they make these mistakes?

Data users frequently ask why the number was revised. The short answer is, the revised estimate includes additional information that was not available at the time of the initial release—information that makes the revised estimate more accurate.

Why are there revisions to the jobs numbers? : Beyond the Numbers: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It looks like the problem is the business’s that are not reporting in a timely manner so the government has to guess and then revise when the real numbers come in. The BLS has been counting jobs since 1915 and there has always been a complaint about how it is done but the problem is no one has found a better or more accurate way yet.

The problem of overstated jobs numbers is not a new one.

Thanks for the article. It pushed me into looking into why this has been a problem.

Andy

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The secret nefarious plan is to replace all private jobs with government jobs. The backlash to privatizing.

The (private) Captain

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Just to be fair Captain, if you were really private you wouldn’t live in Portugal. There are many more countries that are far more private.

Andy

Sorry Andy, your statement makes no sense to me. Maybe you can clarify how the economics of my place of residence dictates my economics. I have ties to five countries

  • Curaçao
  • Germany
  • Portugal - current residence
  • USA
  • Venezuela

Why is Portugal all powerful to control me?

The (private) Captain

Which country would you say is most private? Venezuela, Portugal, or the United States? You could live in any of those countries.

I suspect Captain that you are a moderate, capitalist leaning but still enjoy a little socialist, government, programs.

Andy

No idea.

Not so.

If you were walking down a street and you found a $100 bill, would you pick it up or ignore it? Would picking it up make you a socialist? The difference is that I don’t demand subsidies.

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

The Captain

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**What percent of the population works for the federal government?**

At the end of 2022, with 2.87 million federal employees, 1.9% of US workers were employed by the federal government.

Since BLS began measuring the data in 1939, the proportion of all workers employed by the federal government has declined by 1 percentage point. In January 1939, there were 900,000 federal employees, 3.0% of the country’s workers.

Yes, this is truly a trend to be feared.

Some people look under every couch and cushion, looking for a crumb that will support their conclusion, even in the fact of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Apparently.

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Every single month the previous 3 months of job numbers are adjusted, both up and down, to account for new information that becomes available. There is nothing nefarious about this. In fact, no serious individual would assume the job numbers are 100% accurate. Ever.

Now, the delta, about 15% of the total number, is larger than I would like. I assume this means a lot of companies aren’t reporting results to the surveys, as they’re required to do. And perhaps the jobs bureau needs to review their methods for calculating estimates.

In any case, this afternoon it will be old news.

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LOL. That gets a thumbs up Captain.

Andy

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This is pretty remarkable. The number of federal workers hasn’t changed since 1970.

US population in 1970 was 203M. In 2023 it was 340M, a 67% increase. Inflation adjusted GDP per capita in 1970 was $25,709 compared to $65,817 in 2022, a 150% increase.

The same number of federal workers are dealing with 136M more people and a 150% increase in GDP.

Has any private company increased in size this much without substantially increasing the number of managers?

The government is actually pretty efficient given what it has to do.

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I think that all but one of the months in 2023 were revised downwards - it’s what statisticians call a trend :slight_smile:

I would surmise that technology is responsible for much of that.
A lot of government work involves data, reports and paperwork (typing).
Those functions are performed these days with far fewer staff and probably more accurate results.
Remember office work before computers?

Perhaps not so remarkable at all.

Interesting to see the spikes every 10 years for the census.

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What I find remarkable is that people are complaining for 53 years that the government is to bloated and yet it hasn’t stayed the same. Maybe their perception is off.

Andy

Slowly rising every year, all put on the USA’s credit card:

…and don’t forget that GDP is enhanched by deficit spending

Think about that Divitias ,going up in total 1.3 percentage points between 2023 and 2028 that is less than inflation. I think that is reasonable.

Andy

Going from just under 36% to just under 39% – that’s almost a 10% increase.

Since it is a ratio, inflation affects both denominator and numerator and is not relevant.

DB2

Going from 37.54 percent to 38.82 percent is just a 3.40% increase. The numbers do matter.

Good point DB2, thanks.

Andy

You have them in spades. Endlessly so. The roads, educated employees, state retirement plans that fund markets from retail sales to basic investment and factory demand, to tech break throughs that might save your life. It is endless how many subsidies you have just like the rest of us.

Being crazy if a person gets a pension from the government is an option I guess. I have no clue how to make sense of that nonsense. It is just myopic. As if the world simply no longer exists because I do not understand anything about modern econ and want to guard a wallet. Just like the red states cutting the standard of living because people are loaded up with bull.