Elias, Thank you!
I should leave it “Thank you!” as this is the best comment I have with respect to your post (other than “Pls don’t wait again that long before you post again”) but I have a little comment to
I don’t believe that we have hit bottom because bear markets demand a certain amount of suffering, and we have not given it enough yet.
I think to understand. You do not regularly follow Saul’s board but I do. And their suffering, emotions and right now desperation are completely different from the atmosphere here or on the two other boards I follow.
Just for your information as you do not follow said (I love this word joke with my own name) board: As you know since 6 months their stocks get more and more slaughtered.
Since I think Feb there were more and more “OT” posts of desperate people, expressing their feelings, stating their retirement now is delayed for years etc.
Saul and his assistants did their best to maintain the (anyway extremely enforced as you know from reading about it here) discipline of the board, removing sceptical posts from external board outsiders like me and PP, and at least stopping threads where board members complained about their losses.
Saul & Co actually posted the way one would post here, on this board, with the same reasoning as any of “us”. They asked everyone to not be ruled by their emotions and to instead focus solely on the numbers, on the results of their companies instead of the price: “It’s about the value of X, not about it’s price”. Even (just shortly ago) quoting Buffett: “Voting versus weighting machine”, highlighting the long-term. That their companies growth if continued means they would grow into their lofty valuations and in hindsight would look cheap right now.
Saul regularly underlined that by saying although he too is down currently X% and that in his career he several times had extreme drawdowns, once 62%, that he nevertheless is up 1150% or so while the S&P or this and that value fund is up a meagre Z%.
So they did appeal on the perseverance, stamina and patience of their followers, saying that this kind of investing and companies is not suitable for everybody but kind of promising that the ones willing and having the mental capability to stick to it while suffering in between will be richly awarded in the end.
That worked for a while. Many not officers but normal board members wrote supporting posts like “Surely it hurts but it would be a mistake to give up now”, “I pity you, but those stocks are not suitable for everybody”, “This will change too”. So it was all about the German word “Durchhalteparolen” (Mr.Google says “perseverance slogans”) while their stocks did sink more and more.
Then “everything” changed! 2nd half of March their stocks recovered typically 25%-50%. This naturally was THE sign for them. They felt huge relief. Their beliefs were justified “in the end” etc. They were triumphant, jubilant: “I told you!”. Now it would pay that they endured this suffering and did stick with their investment route.
As more bitter it is for them what happened then, from the beginning of April. The carnage continued with even greater speed. I fully understand their feelings and really pity them. They endured so much since Dec. It was so painful. Then finally they saw themselves vindicated, there was the light at the end of the tunnel. And then, exactly then, being hit with this, at the very worst possible time, when you are convinced “Finally! It’s over. I could not have stand more of this!”. Just imagine this (not you, Elias; you of course know all that). So now it’s really desperation and hopelessness over there, with a long thread “I think I’m done”.
Elias, my impression from your post is that those are the atmosphere and the feelings you mean when you talk about “bottom”. The ones dominant over there for the (not so much anymore) silent majority which are missing for the rest of us (yet).
P.S.: As I just had a look at said (again board I want to add that I am shocked! My impression of Saul, the person, long was that he is kind of brutal because it’s often not exactly nice what he says to sceptics, being very quick to label them “idiotic trolls”.
But that he really means well, honestly wanting to teach investors to become better ones and to improve their lives. After 2021 with 200% or more gains for them he even reminded his followers to not forget the ones less well off, to give to charity etc.
Shortly ago I was very impressed by a very personal post of him in which he gave “life advice” in a way I thought could have been Warren or Charlie speaking (“… relationship… if you constantly feel under tension and unwell it is time to leave” or similar). So I thought he has the best intentions and while his outer shell is rough his inside is actually much softer and likeable.
What shocked me? That yesterday’s poll from tecmo is pulled!
tecmo yesterday had an ingenious idea: He posted a poll there, asking how
much the board members are up or down with their Saul portfolio. A poll that clarifies how many Saul followers came early or late to the party.
The preliminary results I saw were highly interesting. I don’t remember the “up” votes exactly but they were roughly this:
The number of the down ones:
Resulting in over 2/3 being down, with the vast majority down a lot, versus a small minority up a lot.
Should I for whatever reason not see the poll any more why it is still there I apologize for the following words:
!!! That they removed this important poll is dishonest !!!
Whoever actually did remove it, whether Saul himself or an assistant, it’s Saul’s responsibility, and especially after his personal “life advice” post which I really found great and highly respectable I am utterly disappointed.
P.P.S: Elias, after this endless post, in case you still read it: Again, thank you so much and please keep posting from time to time!