Waymo self-driving cars -- progress

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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https://www.wsj.com/tech/waymo-cars-self-driving-robotaxi-tesla-uber-0777f570?mod=hp_lead_pos8

It’s Waymo’s World. We’re All Just Riding in It.

Google’s driverless-taxi company just cracked 10 million rides. If you haven’t taken one, you will soon.

By Ben Cohen, The Wall Street Journal

…
We’re not even halfway through 2025 and it has already crossed a cumulative 10 million. At this rate, Waymo is on track to double again and blow past 20 million fully autonomous trips by the end of the year…

In the coming weeks, Tesla is planning to unveil the robotaxi service that Elon Musk has long promised. Waymo has the first-mover advantage, but the company is not profitable and it has burned through billions of dollars to make the surreal dream of self-driving cars a reality. The world’s richest man is betting that he has a less expensive strategy to help Tesla catch up…

The company now has a safety record over more than 50 million driverless miles—the equivalent of driving across America roughly 20,000 times…

The two companies have taken radically different approaches to the technology and economics of autonomous cabs. Tesla’s model runs on cameras and AI. In addition to loads of AI, Waymo’s system also relies on maps, sensors and human feedback, which makes it so expensive… [end quote]

Waymo is pricing its service to be equivalent to taxis with drivers. That’s a good marketing decision because it needs to build public confidence with volume even if it loses money. As technology improves the cost to Waymo will probably decline.

I wouldn’t want to take a driverless taxi that relies on cameras instead of lidar. Weather conditions easily interfere with vision but lidar can penetrate. I’m surprised that Tesla made this strategic decision which would shut them out of major population centers that have plenty of rain, fog, snow and ice.

Taxis operate in the challenging, crowded city environment. I think a more natural use would be semi trucks on the endless lengths of interstate highway in the middle of the country. They could operate between warehouses located on the outskirts of cities. Then human drivers could drive them into town (like pilots into harbors) if needed.

Self-driving semi-trucks are currently operating on U.S. interstates, though their deployment is limited and primarily concentrated in Texas. These autonomous trucks are equipped with advanced sensor suites, including lidar, radar, and high-definition cameras, providing a 360-degree view and object detection capabilities.

Texas is a good choice because of its long distances, mostly warm and dry climate and business-friendly state administration. Regulations vary by state.

Wendy

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Maybe. Let’s put the numbers in perspective. Waymo is doing 250K trips per week, which is 0.036 million trips per day. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics tells us that Americans take 1.1 billion trips per day.

0.036/1100 =0.0032%
https://www.bts.gov/statistical-products/surveys/national-household-travel-survey-daily-travel-quick-facts

DB2

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Waymo has 10k cars on the road. Tesla makes 40k cars a week.

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Its great to hear that Waymo is making good progress. Only available in a handful of cities. Slowly expanding. And partnering with Uber some places.

It may take a while to reach the rest of the country. Maybe a nice growth business for Google. You wonder if it is profitable? Will they spin it off?

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Waymo is a ride hailing service. That’s the market segment you have to look at.

The key here is exponential growth. Waymo had five million paid rides last year. They will likely have 20 million this year. If they can continue to scale at this rate they will be pretty big pretty soon.

Again, Waymo is a ride hailing service. That’s the comparison. Thus far, Tesla has sold zero rides for hire. If Tesla starts ride hailing next month as announced, they will be about four years behind Waymo.

Tesla will be using geofencing with remote safety operators. So it is unlikely they will be able to scale faster than Waymo.

Google isn’t saying, but it is likely a big money loser.

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The record might include 50 million miles but it isn;t 50 million accident free miles.

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Tesla will go global including in China and Europe in coming months. It will be a slow rollout.

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That’s part of the picture. If people are taking over one billion trips a day, then the percentage of all hailed rides is pretty small. When Ben Cohen writes that ‘you will soon’ he may be influenced by the number of times he uses Uber or Lyft.

Uber has a US market share of about 75% and made about 30 million trips a day. Thus, hails make up about 2% of daily rides in the country. Waymo is up to 0.25 million trips per day, which is 0.7% of hailed rides (and an infinitesimal amount of all US trips). If you haven’t taken one, you may not soon.

DB2

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Waymo costs sound high for now. But as they grow costs will come down.

Pay for drivers has to be a major cost for Uber. Maybe as much as 50%. Waymo has much potential for savings and profits.

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The waymo car is waymo expensive. Too many complex sensors and gadgets to make it work together.

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As they grow overhead costs should come down. Increased volume for the extra sensors may also help.

It will be interesting to see how it develops.

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Not that much, at least as it’s currently structured. They’re still outfitting the cars, one by one, which is the opposite of “scale.”

If Leon is right, Tesla will someday be able to just “flip a switch” and have them running all over the place. Of course they will have to “flip the regulatory switch” city by city (apparently) but then so will Waymo or anybody else, so that’s the same.

Leon has been right about many things, but also wrong about many things, so it will be interesting to see if the “scale” thing works in his favor. If it does, he will jump ahead by leaps and bounds. If not (*if, say, Lidar is necessary for safety or regulatory reasons) then probably not.This is the very definition of “a developing market.”

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All indicators say that Tesla isn’t close to flipping the switch.

Outside of Texas, Tesla has not yet applied for any AV ride hailing permits (Texas does not require a special permit for AV ride hailing). As Uber and Lyft found out, it can take a long time to obtain regular ride hailing permits, let alone the AV component.

And Tesla is using geofencing in Austin. If they thought they were close, like six months or a year out, why would they even bother with this step? Elon has been promising robotaxi-like features for a long time now. It appears Tesla wants to demonstrate they can do something in this area, even though it is far short of what was promised.

FWIW, Tesla is LIDAR manufacturer Luminar Technologies largest customer.

Zeekr is building purpose-built robotaxis for Waymo, for scheduled initial delivery later this year. I’m sure tariffs will figure into this timeline somehow.

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Robotaxi rollout will and should be slow for obvious reasons.

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Fully agree. The most obvious reason is the Tesla isn’t close to ready.

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Market share of what? I.e., does this include conventional cabs?

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75% of ‘rideshares’. Lyft has the other 25%.

DB2

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Seems like it would be a whole more meaningful number if it included taxicabs, i.e., all forms of per ride non-self-owned vehicle.

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Agreed, and that would make the Waymo share even smaller.

DB2