Please re-read what I posted. I am not saying they are low or high probability. Rather, the $1T valuation bakes in, IMHO, around $800 ~ $900 billion valuation that those efforts succeed.
Whether it is $TSLA or $PLTR or $MSTR. The valuation of these names bakes in a very huge runway success for many years even decade. for ex: $PLTR with $3 B revenue run rate has over $303 B valuation, $MSTR is just a company that holds bitcoin, is valued at almost 2x of their Bitcoin holding, same with $TSLA with $100 B sales is valued at $1 T.
There is a huge momentum trade going in US markets. Those trades have completely disconnected with value. If you take last quarter revenue and profit and extrapolate the company is hardly making any money with their existing business, hence I said 90% of its value is future valuation. Even if they succeed, the current valuation captures lots of future upside.
of course your view may be different, that’s what makes the market.