What am I missing with Cloudflare

While R2 may be a no brainer, what is the time frame for a company to move Cloud services? I suspect the time frame is longer that people anticipate.

While moving to R2 may economically make sense, I wonder if the time and effort (non economic costs) necessary to migrate from AWS, GOOG or MSFT will make sense.


Conspiracy Theory Time…

This is pure speculation - but if some large company was trying to acquire NET it would make the stock behave like it has the last couple months. Apple maybe? Or Google?

Think about Livongo. It went from 20 to 150 in 5 or 6 months - then boom - merger announcement. Big guys knew in advance and ran up the share price.

I personally also think that could have been why TDOC ran to $300 earlier this year.

Us small guys never know what’s really going on behind the scenes when stocks run up for no (apparent) good reason.


Muji makes the case in his very recent Premium report that the over-and-seemingly-forever-hyped 5G is actually making inroads now.

How some May feel about Cloudflare’s perhaps-now-similarly-hyped role is the paradigm shift in how the internet is used might be contributing to Cloudflare’s stock price seems to me telling.

Here’s a little from Muji:
Unlocking Potential
So 5G seems poised to unlock a lot of possibilities with IoT devices that maintain a network connection for monitoring and control – any of those cameras, sensors, drones, POS systems, robotics, and machine control systems. These devices are generally dumb, having a low (or non-existant) amount of onboard compute and local storage. This massive increase in bandwidth and lowered latency is going to allow heavier compute & storage actions to be performed very near to these devices, however – essentially making dumb devices smart, via a compute & storage “brain” located mere milliseconds away. You can now create an analytical service that oversees and monitors multiple devices in a set location (a smart building, smart factory, smart warehouse, smart farm, smart hospital, smart stadium, or smart city), leveraging a closely-located, low latency compute & storage layer for aggregating the data across devices and performing compute, like ML/AI, at edge. These networked IoT devices are being called Broadband IoT by much of the telco industry, with a class of them, Critical IoT, reserved for mission-critical devices that require a higher dedicated bandwidth at lower latency, such as in healthcare or factory settings. (Although if you need network guarantees for live-or-death situations, such as for assisted surgency, it is best to go with a wired network, not wireless, to assure no interference. Let’s assume Critical IoT means mission-critical to an enterprise, not to one’s life!)

Muji goes into how and why Cloudflare might have a sustainable advatage here. I believe him.However, Just how lucrative Cloudflare’s position will be is speculation at this time. I’m betting a full position into earnings that…

  1. The story is real and out sized profits will roll in sooner than later.
  2. The hyped 5G promises, now being fulfilled, will sustain the Cloudflare share price with repeated catalysts for the foreseeable future.
  3. My investment thesis will be realized: Cloudflare with software defining the building blocks of virtual and composable units, with their broad vision they will leverage the work done in the prior iterations. Coupled with Cloudflare’s broadly ingrained and repeatable processes, a release-focused culture and millions of “free” beta testers, they will not only grow at the rate of technological adoption they will win here very profitably.




There was a very good Software Stack Investing article about this today.
In summary then Cloudflare are accelerating their development and expanding their TAM so fast that their 50% revenue growth could continue for years, hence invalidating the S-Curve which we’re familiar with: