# What are the chances of TSLA hitting $325 by May 16? **URL:** \ **Category:** Stocks A to Z\ **Tags:** tesla-motors\ **Created:** [March 16, 2025, 7:08pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629 "2025-03-16T19:08:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 7:08pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/1 "2025-03-16T19:08:26Z")
How about $325 by May 16? ![tsla325](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/0/0/0016a02abb0e101afa61ebc19cd9572e16592790.jpeg) How about $480 by September 19? ![tsla480](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/7/4/74804568b6e17fc2b898dbbe4d37886e4a2f6dec.jpeg) The new selector at work. šŸ™‚ The Captain ---
**Author:** ![intercst](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/intercst/32/1543_2.png) [@intercst](https://discussion.fool.com/u/intercst)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 7:46pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/2 "2025-03-16T19:46:52Z")
The only way Tesla will hit $325 by May 16 is if Elon can override NHTSA and get FSD approved for interstate highway use in the next 60 days. I bet you could make that happen with a $200 million gift to the Dear Leader. intercst ---
**Author:** ![steve203](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/steve203/32/3302_2.png) [@steve203](https://discussion.fool.com/u/steve203)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 7:53pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/3 "2025-03-16T19:53:28Z")
> [@intercst](#): > > if Elon can override NHTSA > > I bet you could make that happen with a $200 million gift to the Dear Leader. Of course. The stated objective of the administration is to make the ā€œdeep stateā€ more responsive to the interests of TPTB. Steve ---
**Author:** ![PucksFool](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/pucksfool/32/47955_2.png) [@PucksFool](https://discussion.fool.com/u/PucksFool)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 8:05pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/4 "2025-03-16T20:05:30Z")
And is immunized by an EO from all wrongful death lawsuits. ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 9:08pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/5 "2025-03-16T21:08:10Z")
Itā€™s a darn shame that politics **poisoned** the thread. ---
**Author:** ![WendyBG](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/wendybg/32/67464_2.png) [@WendyBG](https://discussion.fool.com/u/WendyBG)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 9:14pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/6 "2025-03-16T21:14:57Z")
Iā€™m really interested in your covered call selector. How does it work? I could see buying stocks that I would like to hold anyway and writing covered calls on them. How do you choose? Thanks, Wendy ---
**Author:** ![mostlylong](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/mostlylong/32/3943_2.png) [@mostlylong](https://discussion.fool.com/u/mostlylong)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 9:58pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/7 "2025-03-16T21:58:27Z")
The title of your thread is what are the chances of Tesla price reaching $325 by May 16. Does your code calculate this probability using an option pricing model? ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 11:07pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/8 "2025-03-16T23:07:06Z")
> [@mostlylong](#): > > Does your code calculate this probability using an option pricing model? No! It does not calculate the probability in any which way. The Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes that the price depends on volatility but what traders see is the bid-ask spread and trade accordingly. After the trade executes you have the **ā€˜IMPLIEDā€™ volatility.** My model use four metrics to rate options, 1. Cash = Net premium 2. Discount = Net premium / Stock price 3. SSS per day = Net premium / Days to expiration 4. CAGR = (Net premium + Capital gain) should the option be assigned vs. the price of the stock when downloading the option chain using the CAGR formula 5. The Captain ---
**Author:** ![mostlylong](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/mostlylong/32/3943_2.png) [@mostlylong](https://discussion.fool.com/u/mostlylong)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 11:22pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/9 "2025-03-16T23:22:47Z")
> [@captainccs](#): > > > [@mostlylong](#): > > > > Does your code calculate this probability using an option pricing model? > > No! It does not calculate the probability in any which way. I was thinking that because you titled your thread with a question about this that you are interested in this probability. Would your strategy be helped by estimating the probability that Tesla reaches $325 by May 16? ---
**Author:** ![Kingran](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/kingran/32/2318_2.png) [@Kingran](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Kingran)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2025, 11:54pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/10 "2025-03-16T23:54:22Z")
> [@mostlylong](#): > > Would your strategy be helped by estimating the probability that Tesla reaches $325 by May 16? Actually currently the probability of $TSLA reaching $325 is about 9% based on current volatility. Of course as price changes, and volatility changes this changes. If you start incorporating the probability then you get into constant adjustments. ---
**Author:** ![mostlylong](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/mostlylong/32/3943_2.png) [@mostlylong](https://discussion.fool.com/u/mostlylong)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 3:07am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/11 "2025-03-17T03:07:31Z")
> [@Kingran](#): > > Actually currently the probability of $TSLA reaching $325 is about 9% based on current volatility. Then one could calculate return under the two cases: 9% chance of $325 91% chance of not $325 The more interesting case is to have your own pricing model and compare it to the prices in the market. If you believe in your model, then when your model substantially deviates from the market model, then invest accordingly. Thatā€™s a lot of work, but thatā€™s why hedge funds exist. ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 3:09am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/12 "2025-03-17T03:09:21Z")
Most options are a waste of money. That is why covered calls would make an income. Fools and money are easily parted. Welcome to the new reality. Same as the old. But you will lose your shirt in TSLA. Not worth the cost of doing business. ---
**Author:** ![Kingran](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/kingran/32/2318_2.png) [@Kingran](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Kingran)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 3:51am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/13 "2025-03-17T03:51:05Z")
> [@mostlylong](#): > > If you believe in your model, then when your model substantially deviates from the market model, then invest accordingly You can have an idea of what is the worth of a stock, and apply a discount to it, a margin of safety and sell a put. You could be wrong and the margin of safety may not be sufficient. But the damage is mostly limited. Trying to use Option probability to trade is not a viable option for individual investors. They are mostly for the big players. Even delta hedging is not viable for individual investors. ---
**Author:** ![MarkR](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/markr/32/2011_2.png) [@MarkR](https://discussion.fool.com/u/MarkR)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 3:52am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/14 "2025-03-17T03:52:38Z")
> [@captainccs](#): > > How about $325 by May 16? My gut tells me that thereā€™s a 70% chance it sees $325 sometime between now and May 16th. > [@captainccs](#): > > How about $480 by September 19? Iā€™d say thereā€™s a 20% chance of seeing $480 sometime between now and Sep 19th. > [@intercst](#): > > The only way Tesla will hit $325 by May 16 is if Elon can override NHTSA and get FSD approved for interstate highway use in the next 60 days. I think the story is that if Tesla launches a robotaxi service (in Austin?) before May 16th, the stock could pop, even briefly, but easily over $325. ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 3:54am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/15 "2025-03-17T03:54:37Z")
> [@MarkR](#): > > I think the story is that if Tesla launches a robotaxi service (in Austin?) before May 16th, the stock could pop, even briefly, but easily over $325. The numbers do not make sense. The shares are not worth anything like that. Place a lot more doubt in the current market pricing. ---
**Author:** ![intercst](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/intercst/32/1543_2.png) [@intercst](https://discussion.fool.com/u/intercst)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 4:31am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/16 "2025-03-17T04:31:25Z")
> [@MarkR](#): > > I think the story is that if Tesla launches a robotaxi service (in Austin?) The thinking is that the robotaxi in Austin will look more like a Waymo with the spinning LIDAR sensors ā€“ sealing the case that Elon isnā€™t going to make FSD work with cameras alone. [![](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/4/3/434700718749fe74d3067b399a58931bf4eb098e.jpeg "Waymo Boss: Teslaā€™s Robotaxi Launch Is Fake!") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGr4uq0aPZM) intercst ---
**Author:** ![ptheland](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/ptheland/32/3459_2.png) [@ptheland](https://discussion.fool.com/u/ptheland)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 4:35am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/17 "2025-03-17T04:35:35Z")
Here is but one reason the camera-only approach of Tesla isnā€™t going to be reliable. [Tesla vs Wall](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/U1MigIJXJx8) ā€“Peter ---
**Author:** ![ptheland](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/ptheland/32/3459_2.png) [@ptheland](https://discussion.fool.com/u/ptheland)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 5:03am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/18 "2025-03-17T05:03:42Z")
Hereā€™s the longer version of the video. Iā€™ve jumped ahead past a lot of explanation (and a bit of side quest at Disneyland with a LIDAR) to the car testing. [![](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/1/8/18545c5f0183738f916ff52ef5dca98a977f064d.jpeg "Can You Fool A Self Driving Car?") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJL3htsDyQ&t=490) ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 6:47am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/19 "2025-03-17T06:47:11Z")
> [@mostlylong](#): > > Would your strategy be helped by estimating the probability that Tesla reaches $325 by May 16? I was going to answer but I decided to read the rest of the thread before doing so. Road Runner Ran Right (\<- sound of motor car) off a cliiiiā€¦ There was a man who wished he could read the stock market news a day ahead of time to make his trades. His wish came true! He was ecstatic! Next he read an obituary. His own! > ## What Did Mark Twain Say About The Stock Market? > > Mark Twain had many observations about human behavior, society, and various aspects of life, including investing and the stock market. > > What did Mark Twain say about the stock market? Here are a few of his most famous ones: > > - > ### **ā€œOctober: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.ā€** More fun stuff in the link below! Click links at the link at your own peri!! You have been warned! > **[What Did Mark Twain Say About The Stock Market?](https://financhill.com/blog/investing/what-did-mark-twain-say-about-the-stock-market#:~:text=%E2%80%9COctober%3A%20This%20is%20one%20of,%2C%20August%2C%20and%20February.%E2%80%9D)** > > Mark Twain had many observations about human behavior, society, and various aspects of life, including investing and the stock market.Ā  The Captain loves - Road Runner - Mark Twain ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2025, 11:18am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629/20 "2025-03-17T11:18:58Z")
> [@WendyBG](#): > > Iā€™m really interested in your covered call selector. How does it work? Glad to hear. It started out as simple spreadsheets to calculate options. In time it became too much work and too error prone so I wrote code to add it to my portfolio web app. **Indicators** ![indicatirs](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/4/9/490f50edecf3e98178283b9fca6de5f2c6d9ade0.png) I had to figure out the most significant indicators for my purposes, namely generating income. The column on the left is about the premium 1. **cash** : Cash = Net option premium 2. **day** : Dollars per day = cash / days to expiration 3. **disc** : Discount = Cash / stock price when the option chain was downloaded The blue column is about the option being assigned at expiration 1. **cash** : Total cash = option premium + shares capital gain/loss 2. **day** : Dollars per day = Total cash / days to expiration 3. **cagr** = (Net premium + Capital gain) should the option be assigned vs. the price of the stock 15 minutes before the option chain was downloaded using the CAGR formula - **days** : days to expiration from today - **Sel** : Transfer the option data to another screen to compare against options on other stocks **Selectors** ![selectors](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/7/f/7f9e1fe6d6c81578ced20e9abe4290b496447248.png) Option chains have hundreds and even thousands of options. The selectors are used to mute the ones of no interest to then personally focus on the best ones. The drop down menu can pick one or all the option chains. ![menu](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/3/0/303f6801ff30fa3e40128920b58004ec4de1a22c.png) šŸ’” Easy to upgrade to pick a few choice ones. Once you pare down the number of options to a manageable number the rest is old fashioned manual option picking. > [@WendyBG](#): > > I could see buying stocks that I would like to hold anyway and writing covered calls on them. How do you choose? If you really want to learn about options I recommend, but only after learning the basics, > **[Option Volatility and Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques, 2nd...](https://www.amazon.com/Option-Volatility-Pricing-Strategies-Techniques/dp/0071818774)** > > Option Volatility and Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques, 2nd Edition \[Natenberg, Sheldon\] on Amazon.com. \*FREE\* shipping on qualifying offers. Option Volatility and Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques, 2nd Edition There are many trading strategies some of which have names like Catch as Catch Can holds. ā€œIron Condor?ā€ Sounds painful! Ouch! Leave that to professionals. Simple covered calls can be very productive. Notice the word **volatility** in the title! The higher the volatility of an underlying stock the higher the premiums will be. This is one of the reasons I like technology growth stocks to write covered calls on. Less volatile stocks will fetch lower premiums but will have a lower risk of capital loss. Also, with high volatility stocks there is a higher probability of the option being assigned and losing the stock PLUS paying capital gain taxes to boot. Being a non-resident alien has its advantages, no capital gain taxes! Your option strategy has to match your investing objectives. Covered calls are the least risky options. When people tell you that calls and puts are essentially the same, donā€™t believe it. In theory they are. In practice selling puts is riskier than selling covered calls. Itā€™s not the options themselves but the cash management they require. Puts give the buyer the option to put, to sell you the stock and the put is **ā€œCASH SECUREDā€** and that usually means margin. I divide my portfolio into LTBH and income from covered calls, they require different option strategies. **LTBH** You donā€™t want to lose these stocks which means out of the money (OTM) options, way OTM if the stock is volatile. Generally you donā€™t want to use them for covered calls. The exception is after a top like TSLA had this past December. While the stock is falling the options are less likely to be assigned. TSLA yielded over 7% from late December to mid February. **Income** Here you want stocks that yield lots of premium, volatile stocks. Stocks not likely to crash and stocks likely to bounce back. I experimented with a large number of stocks picked by Cathie Wood. That did not work out well. Now I have half a dozen candidates, solid high growth tech stocks (AMD, ARM, NVDA, PLTR, SMCI, etc.) The option picks tend to be somewhat OTM. If they crash you either sell them or roll the options higher OTM. Learn to interpret stock price charts. Traders favor six month charts. The Captain [Next page](https://discussion.fool.com/t/what-are-the-chances-of-tsla-hitting-325-by-may-16/114629.md?page=2)