Trying to be thorough.
Tesla did make it to $325 by May 16.
Not sure why - it wasn’t the financials because this growth company has declining vehicle sales and overall sales year over year. Forward P/E is 160 or so.
So I was wrong on this forecast.
Still short Tesla, but at a loss.
Let’s see how future sales go. And Robotaxi launch in June.
I had forgotten about this thread until it just popped up again! So in the end, it did hit $325, it even ended over $325 upon option expiry, so they were very likely exercised. Not a bad trade … buy stock at $240, sell the call for $12, and now sell the stock at $325, net gain of $325-$240+$12 = $97. Of course, you could have skipped the call, and just bought the stock at $240, and sold now at $340 for a gain of $100. But there’s no way to know how it’ll turn out in advance.
Definitely not the financials, and not the core business of cars either because that’s not doing great at all (it’s only the middle of the quarter and they already have all sorts of promos going). It’s got to be the hopes of future businesses - robotaxi maybe, robots maybe, AI maybe, …
There’s no way to forecast “story stocks”. And I daresay, the charts probably don’t even work on story stocks.
EDIT: I forgot to add this part last night. Seems like there is some sort of scandal at Luminar and over the weekend, the founder stepped down as CEO and Chairman of the Board. No details about what the scandal entails though.
So @captainccs
Did you sell the above Tesla calls?
You mention your selector, but what did you select?
What options trades did you put on around March 16?
Questions about investing.
Interesting to look back on this thread.
While it did make the first date/price mentioned:
$325 by May 16, 2025
It took 2 more months to make this price:
$480 by Sept 19, 2025
And the bear takes were, well, laughable, such as:
$225 by May 16, 2025 or lower.
This one is still open, but I hope no-one is betting on it:
$16 by April 16, 2026, aka “May 325th” (from May 16, 2025)
I think a 20% CAGR over the next two years is a lock. That means $640 or more on or before Dec 31, 2027.