What are the odds of CRWD being worth $50 b?

We have SYMC worth $12 billion, CRWD is now actually worth more than SYMC. The last time McAfee was sold, it was worth about $4 billion. Trend Microseystems is worth $6 billion. That’s $24 billion right there.

So if CRWD doubles, it will be worth what all the big 3 security vendors it mainly competes with, combined. These security vendors are growing slower, however, because they have captured most of the TAM already.

We will throw Palo Alto in there as well, $20 billion. That’s $44 billion between all the big players. Cisco Security is about a $2.6 billion business. Let’s say they are worth $8 billion. That’s $52 billion right there.

So if CRWD quadruple over the years to a $52 billion market cap, it will be worth all the big players they compete with, combined.

My concern with CRWD is not so much their story or their growth, but their Market Cap/TAM.

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