Note: That’s $1 Trillion before the human colonization of Mars.
How many of you are willing to bet the downside that Elon won’t make it? (i.e., a $100 bet pays $1,071 if Elon isn’t a trillionaire by year end. Where else can you get a 10-bagger over the next 3-6 months?
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In gambling there is no such thing as a sure bet. Guess it depends if the bet is Musk is a trillionaire at year’s end or at any point in the year. Current net worth about $780B. IPO of SpaceX midrange consensus is $2T with Mush reportedly keeping control, so 1/2 the stock. So will net around $1T just from the IPO.
So, to become a trillionaire at any point in the year, 99.9999% yes. By end of the year, still high but not guaranteed. The IPO would have to lose about 75% of its value which wouldn’t be unheard of. Surprised Polymarket took the action.
Polymarket just collects the “juice”. They win no matter how the bet resolves.
That’s about 1.5% on a 50/50 bet. On a 92/08 bet like this one, the people betting $100 to win $107 are paying about 1.4% on the chance Elon’s a trillionaire at any time before year end, those betting $100 to win $1,071 on the chance that Elon fails are only paying about 0.1% . There is less skim on the long shot bets.
The bet pays off the first moment that Musk appears as a trillionaire on Bloomberg’s real time billionaire list, as long as it’s before year end.
https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/
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