- 1
- 2
- 3
- 5
Do those integers represent weeks, months or years?
They are years not weeks, months.
I put 5, but it could be more. Given that Waymo first started self driving in 2009, that’s 16 years to get to a point where most of the country still has never seen one.
Now I’m willing to admit that the second guy, and the third if there is one will do it much faster than that, and given that Elgin (wrongly) says any Tesla will do, the rollout could be really really much faster - but I believe there are a bunch of legal hurdles, not to mention permissions and clearances to obtain, plus possible legislations on rights of way, school zones, insurance, and a host of other issues to sort out.
So I’d say “between 5 and 10 years” before this becomes a real business and available to most of the country. Wild guess, obviously, but I have a better track record than Magic 8-ball, so take it for what it’s worth.
Tesla vs kid dummies. Ran them over 8 times in a row:
https://insideevs.com/news/762834/tesla-model-y-fsd-test-kid-dummy/