What the heck is going on?

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
#3

I had to check and recheck my portfolio. Up 13 of 15. Doesn’t fell right but that’s it right now.

Andy

#4

I am the same. Up 2.3% today.

However I’m not super concerned. Yesterday I was DOWN 1-2% even with the market up a sizable amount. When we are invested in a higher concentrated portfolio with low diversity (the common stocks talked about are nearly all smaller-fast growing tech companies), we can expect higher volatility as well as day to day results that don’t track the market seemingly at all.

#5

Saul,
I understand the emotion of trying to decide if it’s time to worry or sit back and enjoy the ride. In my 40 plus years investing I have never experienced anything like the last month or so. The broader market struggling but my holdings just pounding it. This is thanks to you and all the awesome contributors to to this board.

As I’m typing this I’m holding my six day old granddaughter as she naps, think for today I’ll enjoy the ride.

Thanks for all you do
Kindness Regards,
Steve

18 Likes
#6

I always hear on CNBC that the top 5 stocks in the Nasdaq are driving this market. Because of their size I see the thinking but as we know some of the stocks we are in have done even better than the FAANGs. It is my belief that there are so many life changing innovations now whether they are in immunotherapies, autonomous driving, AI, data analytics, SAAS, storage and more that are changing the world. These powerful drivers transcend what would be normal market returns for those that can tap into them.

Rob

11 Likes
#7

Looking at my own pf, I see all the financials are red, while all the holdings of the kind we discuss here are green.

Perhaps the market is assessing the awful prospects and knock-on effects of a trade war with China, while assuming that domestic companies will continue to invest in Saas because they have to.

#8

π•­π–Šπ–œπ–†π–—π–Š π–‘π–Šπ–˜π–™ π–žπ–”π–š π–˜π–†π–ž π–Žπ–“ π–žπ–”π–šπ–— π–π–Šπ–†π–—π–™, β€˜π•Έπ–ž π–•π–”π–œπ–Šπ–— 𝖆𝖓𝖉 π–™π–π–Š π–’π–Žπ–Œπ–π–™ 𝖔𝖋 π–’π–ž 𝖍𝖆𝖓𝖉 π–π–†π–›π–Š π–Œπ–”π–™π–™π–Šπ–“ π–’π–Š π–™π–π–Žπ–˜ π–œπ–Šπ–†π–‘π–™π–.’

πŸ†πŸ…ΆπŸ…±

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#9

A little carried away with editing like those annoying neon blinking billboard huh Red-Orange-Yellow-GreeEEn-Blue-Indigo-Violet?

And my fortune cookie today says, β€œgrowth stocks keep going up because they keep growing!”

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#10

β€œAre we just invested in all the best stocks in the market? Hard to believe.” Saul

Count me as a believer, Saul. The indices have taken a beating the past 6 months relative to the β€œSaul” portfolio.

Jim

1 Like
#11

Looking at my own pf, I see all the financials are red, while all the holdings of the kind we discuss here are green.

Not all financials, TREE up 7%.
MKTX down 0.18%
V down 0.50%

Denny Schlesinger

#12

β€œπ•­π–Šπ–œπ–†π–—π–Š π–‘π–Šπ–˜π–™ π–žπ–”π–š π–˜π–†π–ž π–Žπ–“ π–žπ–”π–šπ–— π–π–Šπ–†π–—π–™, β€˜π•Έπ–ž π–•π–”π–œπ–Šπ–— 𝖆𝖓𝖉 π–™π–π–Š π–’π–Žπ–Œπ–π–™ 𝖔𝖋 π–’π–ž 𝖍𝖆𝖓𝖉 π–π–†π–›π–Š π–Œπ–”π–™π–™π–Šπ–“ π–’π–Š π–™π–π–Žπ–˜ π–œπ–Šπ–†π–‘π–™π–.’
πŸ†πŸ…ΆπŸ…±β€

OK, this is OT on an OT thread, but just how are you getting other fonts and symbols into your posts?

3 Likes
#13

I think what is going on is there are several new technologies hitting the market at this time. These technologies are aimed at taking out large S&P500 companies market share, and replacing them with technologies that are better and faster.

Since we are not invested in S&P companies, when the S&P goes down it doesn’t matter.

But we are invested in those companies eating some S&P’s lunch, so they are going up … FAST.

I’m not sure this is going to slow down for a while, because there are more and more smart people coming up with innovative solutions to big data problems.

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#14

Not sure how many years it’s been watching this board but I think 3 or 4 or maybe more…
Saul, the tweaks you have been making are the reason I believe.
I remember when you wouldn’t buy anything that didn’t have a p/e!
I think your on fire right now even more so than the past
Tech stocks/ high growth rates
It’s like you are the fisherman in β€œa river runs through it” where after learning and practicing for so long, one day he just breaks off into this rhythm that no one ever told him about, beyond anything he thought possible, he just found it through doing for so long…
That being said, I will expect to get thrashed along the way with a correction or two but I’m am so psyched for everyone here right now
This is super awesome!!!

6 Likes
#15

I think what is going on is there are several new technologies hitting the market at this time. These technologies are aimed at taking out large S&P500 companies market share, and replacing them with technologies that are better and faster. Since we are not invested in S&P companies, when the S&P goes down it doesn’t matter. But we are invested in those companies eating some S&P’s lunch, so they are going up … FAST.

I’m not sure this is going to slow down for a while, because there are more and more smart people coming up with innovative solutions to big data problems.

I like your analysis winlock. I sure hope it’s true.
Saul

4 Likes
#16

This board has just picked the best stocks… back pat, back pat…

Okay, i am not really disagreeing with the best stocks comments, but come on. The answer is a little easier than that.

In my opinion, there is a huge bull market in both software SAAS companies and cloud companies. All of these types of companies that are growing very strongly have been on fire for quite a while now. This bull market has not been happening in many other tech companies. It just so happens that the companies this board follows fall in these categories.

Is this an accident, I would say no. I have said for a long time now that Saul has an ability to sense what is working on the market and he was early to this bull market. Go back and look at Saul’s stocks from two years ago. Quite a different type of stock. I could go into detail but I think anybody who has been here awhile knows this is true.

So, let me be clear. I am not in any way saying something bad about this board or Saul. I think there is a lot to be said that SAAS and the cloud were not being valued properly a while back. Not sure that is not true now, but there is certainly a possibility that these type of companies need to be valued differently as Saul has been saying for quite a while and I have bought into a few.

In any event. It seems very clear to me what is happening. There is a small subset of the market represented on this board. As long as that stays in favor. This board will outperform. I hope it does for quite a while.

Randy

17 Likes
#17

One possibility: Industrials sit in the eye of the eye of the storm during any global trade war.

Industrials are central to the Dow, less so the S&P, much less so the Nasdaq, and nowhere here.

Tom

PS Beyond the potential trade wars, maybe the next thematic threat, which could be more relevant here (in bad or good ways), would be regulatory pressures building around the world’s largest technology companies.

49 Likes
#18

"π•­π–Šπ–œπ–†π–—π–Š π–‘π–Šπ–˜π–™ π–žπ–”π–š π–˜π–†π–ž π–Žπ–“ π–žπ–”π–šπ–— π–π–Šπ–†π–—π–™, β€˜π•Έπ–ž π–•π–”π–œπ–Šπ–— 𝖆𝖓𝖉 π–™π–π–Š π–’π–Žπ–Œπ–π–™ 𝖔𝖋 π–’π–ž 𝖍𝖆𝖓𝖉 π–π–†π–›π–Š π–Œπ–”π–™π–™π–Šπ–“ π–’π–Š π–™π–π–Žπ–˜ π–œπ–Šπ–†π–‘π–™π–.’
πŸ†πŸ…ΆπŸ…±"

OK, this is OT on an OT thread, but just how are you getting other fonts and symbols into your posts?

Please don’t tell anyone how to do this, this one post was hard enough to read, that’s all we need, everyone picking their favorite font-of-the-day to post in.

Let’s keep the board about investing and not graphic design aesthetics.

38 Likes
#19

In my opinion, there is a huge bull market in both software SAAS companies and cloud companies. All of these types of companies that are growing very strongly have been on fire for quite a while now. This bull market has not been happening in many other tech companies. It just so happens that the companies this board follows fall in these categories.

It’s not just cloud and SAAS. It is high tech in general and they are driving the new world order. My portfolio is concentrated in AMZN, FB, NFLX, and NVDA and I have been up consistently, 1.8% today. Nasdaq is close to all time highs so it makes sense that those invested in high tech be at all time highs.

Money is coming out of Industrials, Boeing, CAT, car makers, those with exposure to China, and all this money has to go somewhere and tech is the safest home in the neighborhood. But I wouldn’t sit too comfortably. For now, it is a rotation out of industrials into tech. But if a trade war starts, as it appears that is has, then even tech won’t be immune. Just today, there was news that EU may impose a 3% tax on large high tech companies revenues (not on profits, but on sales)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-may-impose-new-3-tax-on…

Mehran

19 Likes
#20

… favorite font-of-the-day to post in…

Yes but how does s/he do that? Pretty cool.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNowβ€”the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

Latest forecast: 1.9 percent β€” March 14, 2018
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 1.9 percent on March 14, down from 2.5 percent on March 9.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

Down from 5.4% last month. Appears there may have been some irrational exuberance way back in February but that is one steep decline. I know I some politicians talking about maybe 4% or even higher at one time. The quarter to quarter track record seems pretty good there.

The Rule Breaker Portfolio, Buy AMZN, September 08, 1997
Moving forward Foolishly into another small-cap, high growth stock…
Motley Fool Staff
(the_motley_fool)
Sep 8, 1997 at 12:00AM

Rule Breaker To Buy AMZN
September 08, 1997
https://www.fool.com/archive/portfolios/rulebreaker/trades/1…

Shame most newbies would have no way of knowing about that or finding that. All of Bill Mann’s great Fool on the Hill articles gone. As amazing as that buy was it was even more amazing that they held most or all of it as everything was being crushed in 2001 including Amazon despite fits and starts and gasps Nasdaq up 16% in a week April 2001. Bill Mann wrote an article saying be very cautious thinking the Federal Reserve was going to save you.

1 Like
#21

I just took a look at my non-retirement account, and, after adjusting for deposits and withdrawals, it’s up about 18% since the end of last year. Most of that is from Arista, Micron, Berkshire Hathaway, Gilead, and Skyworks. Except for Arista, bought about four weeks ago, I had these stocks since before the end of the year.

A certain amount is growth, and a certain amount could be called luck - being at a higher part of a fluctuation range in a bull market.

#22

Reference in Barrons to some interesting research by Bernstein which claims to show that, over a 40 year period, companies formed into quintiles by price (in relation to what?) show that the most expensive and the cheapest quintiles outperform the three middle quintiles, which apparently find greater difficulty in competing successfully. It was not clear whether this referred to technology companies only.