What to do during a 5 month train wreck

Yesterday: “I added a miniscule amount of vug (Vanguard Growth etf) to my port today for $255/share because it is down 20% from its recent highs at the end of last year, and because growth stocks may still be ok for the long haul. If mungo’s 99 day rule kicks in I plan to add a little more.”

This morning I am looking at an early morning premarket bounce of about 3% that could easily disappear by open. Or not. If all goes well from a long term perspective, we will have more washouts during the year which will allow me to deploy some of my excess cash when stocks have become affordable sometime this year - or next. If the market refuses to fall further in the near future, I will continue to hold ‘too much cash’.

I am still thinking that there will be a much steeper decline in stock prices sometime this year that will offer me some buying opportunities for my long run holdings.

when people are panic selling it is time to do panic buying. The market is starting to feel panicky.

I agree with everything you said, but the amount of corporate debt out there still worries me. I won’t be happy until I see them start to pay down what they owe.

Personal debt is another problem, and it’s a problem for the bank and companies doing the lending, as well.

If this were a book, a lot of people would be starting to sell their snuff boxes and fancy furniture at this point.

Mungofitch showed that selling the SPX if it didn’t make a new high in 99 trading days often avoided deeper bear market losses … It was 77 days without a new high last Sunday

Anyone really think it’s going to make a new high in the next 22 days?

So why wait …

Mungofitch showed that selling the SPX if it didn’t make a new high in 99 trading days often avoided deeper bear market losses … It was 77 days without a new high last Sunday

Anyone really think it’s going to make a new high in the next 22 days? So why wait…

Because not waiting would not be following the system. Remember, this was from the Mechanical Investing board.

DB2

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Anyone really think it’s going to make a new high in the next 22 days?

So why wait …

The only reason to hold is if your entry in an equity was very good. JMO

My goal is a double over the next 8-10 years from today. I still think that is possible, even if mostly invested in ETF’s like VOO, QQQ, VTV.

Using the Rule of 72, that would mean a CAGR of 7-9% or slightly lower than the average S&P 500 return of 10%.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average…

JLC

JLC writes,

<<<My goal is a double over the next 8-10 years from today. I still think that is possible, even if mostly invested in ETF’s like VOO, QQQ, VTV.>>>

Using the Rule of 72, that would mean a CAGR of 7-9% or slightly lower than the average S&P 500 return of 10%.

That’s true, but there’s a lot of variability in the S&P500 return for a 10 yr holding period. Best 10 yr period had 17.9% annualized, worst -3.8% annualized.

https://fourpillarfreedom.com/heres-how-the-sp-500-has-perfo….

Over a 10-yr holding period, the S&P500 loses money about 30% of the time. It’s much better planning for a 20 or 30 year time horizon.

intercst

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Over a 10-yr holding period, the S&P500 loses money about 30% of the time. It’s much better planning for a 20 or 30 year time horizon.

Point being, the OP wanting to double their portfolio in 10 years can be a realistic, possible goal as opposed to wanting to double in 3-5 years.

JLC