What's The Real Deal on Ray Dalio

I keep reading/watching videos by Ray Dalio. I can’t get tell of he’s credible or just a doom and gloomer of the current era. (There are ALWAYS doom and gloomers. Warren Buffet taught us to get rich by ignoring them.

The thing about Dalio is that he’s been around for 50ish years and his hedge funds (or private equity or whatever he manages) has done fabulously well. He’s not a fly-by-night kook. He’s currently pretty much predicting an economic calamity that can’t be avoided due to the history of the long term debt cycle catching up with us (and the world).

I keep remembering the 1985 book “The Great Depression of 1990” by Ravi Batra. The fear of that concerned me, but as a young investor I ignored it and invested anyway. We know how that turned out (well!).

Some discussion about Ray Dalio would be interesting. Are his current predictions just the latest version of “The Great Depression of 1990”?

If you want a discussion about the forecast(s) by this gentleman, it would be helpful for you to post/link to the specific prediction.

Many economists predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions.

When looking at his track record you need to know the number of incorrect predictions as well as the correct predictions.

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Here’s some Ray Dalio advice from almost 4 years ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/ray-dalio-shares-formula-any…

“When you look at most portfolios, they have a very strong bias to do well in good times and bad in bad times,” Dalio says in the book. To avoid your portfolio simply rising and falling with the market, his advice is to spread out and balance the risks of each investment.

Here’s his breakdown for what a well-diversified portfolio might look like, according to the book: 30 percent allocated to stocks, 40 percent to long-term U.S. bonds, 15 percent to intermediate U.S. bonds, 7.5 percent to gold and 7.5 percent to other commodities. (The portfolio does need to be rebalanced annually, he adds.)

That mix is intended to do well under any condition, whether the economy is growing or shrinking, or whether inflation is rising or falling, he explains.

He sounds like another Hussman to me – way too much in bonds for someone investing for the long-term.

From a marketing standpoint, I’m sure doomsday prophecies sell more books.

intercst

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there are so many doomsayers. Roubini, Gratham, Burry…Why listen to any one in particular?

But I don’t see Dalio as one. I just like his exposition on the debt cycles and how an economy works.

The doomsayer that may have unsettled many is Jeremy Grantham. He has been predicting a stock market crash for 2 years now.

Maybe when many catch on to these things, the underlying dynamics would have already shifted to a more bullish one. Maybe not soon but maybe sooner than some might think…at least for some sectors.

People like to predict but no one can really predict accurately or at all. Black swan events occur.

tj

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