Tops and bottoms but that’s not what they call them on Broadway.
Back to Wall Street. Tops and bottoms can only be seen after the fact but one can get a good idea by gauging the.market. Charts are great tools. Traders tend to prefer six month charts. Not too short, not too long. Here is 6 months of TSLA
After the AI euphoria that drove it to the all time high on December 17 TSLA is back to where it was six months ago. That is a strong support level. If it breaks, ouch! Notice the NASDAQ pale yellow line. TSLA outperformed NASDAQ a bit but with a lot more volatility. That shows that Tesla is not the problem despite all the noise. As Mark Twain might have said, “News of its demise are wildly exaggerated.”
It is still too early to tell if it will break out up or break down. Tops and bottoms on Wall Street can only be seen after the fact.
Post and pre market is again looking very positive.
That shows no such thing. Musk has managed to damage the brand in every country where he operates, with the possible exception of China, where he faces competition he never dreamed of.
But in Europe, the outstretched-arm salute is a no go, and will not easily be forgotten. In the US his dismantling of government, especially parts favorite by the Left (not coincidentally his best customers previously) works against him - and there is no indication that the Right, particularly the rural Right, can come close to making up the difference.
Indeed, I would guess that the damage is accelerating, at least as the quarter counts: January was before DOGE and the salute, so sales were probably “normal”. February and March is where the damage began, so 1st quarter has one “good” month and two bad; I expect the 2nd quarter to be worse, qualitatively.
Don’t get me wrong, they will still sell cars. But absent some stunning revelation (and FSD isn’t it, not yet) or AI (which is trying to game Tesla shareholders into buying at super-inflated valuation), I don’t see how he keeps all the plates spinning in the air.
I’m still short, and feeling better than ever about it.
I like the 2 contrary opinions, nice thinking about both sides of the argument.
The tariffs are going to affect every country and everybody.
Somewhere, some end user consumer is going to pay higher prices for the same goods and services compared to pre tariff increases, so said consumers have less money to spend on other things, including Teslas.
Mungofitch explained it well: the market has dropped, because the future earnings of companies and consumers have dropped. (paraphrased ).
So, I expect there will be bounces up, but I for one am less
optimistic about future stock market gains that I was before all of this foot-shooting started. That goes for all companies, not just Tesla
