No one knows exactly when AI bubble will burst. While you are seeing headlines about circular investments, and the stocks making 10%, 20%, 30% moves, even ones with $100’s of billion market cap on funding or contract announcement, it is natural to feel concerned. However, keep in mind the following:
- Market extremes go much further than you think on both directions
- Fed just started cutting, and additional cuts are coming, i.e., easy money environment, which should fuel the bubble further
- The market could very well melt-up between now and year-end
So when to run for covers???
- When $NVDA misses the earning/ revenue estimates or guides below market expectation, that is the day, you run for covers.
- If you are too worried, take some profits, buy some hedges. Both have problem like paying taxes, and hedges are expensive. But that’s the price you pay to sleep peacefully.