Where are the two shoes?

When do US home prices fall?

And in the mists of that and possibly going a little longer than the our shoe falling, when does China’s complete financial collapse happen?

In both nations construction borrowing is a more important driver of the economy than it should be. As thing revert to the norm and borrowing declines…so does other consumption.

<When do US home prices fall?>

I think that U.S. home prices will start to fall when mortgage rates rise. That will happen when the Federal Reserve stops buying Treasuries and mortgage bonds (Quantitative Tightening) later this year.


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When do US home prices fall?

Wendy mentions mortgage rates rising (which should happen fairly soon). I would add a second trigger of corporate/REIT purchases for use as rentals drying up. Construction will likely continue to lag demand for some time because of all the COVID-related delays in both labor and materials.