Why deal with Upstart

I cannot add anything to the awesome research and very good debate about Upstart. However, I can add to why Upstart is worth investing in despite the two really big strikes against it.

One: It is not SAAS and does not have recurring revenue. For me this is mitigated by my belief that Saul has been heard and the SAAS companies are being more fairly valued. (Compared to other growth companies)

Two: Upstart is in a big, really really, really big field. Let’s take Monday, which now has about the same portion of my portfolio as Upstart. Monday is looking at the Business to Business market of influence. It is valuable and growing, but what percentage of the entire world will it touch? Can it do an Amazon and go from selling books to being one of the largest markets on the planet? (Alibaba may be bigger, I haven’t checked and really do not care.) Upstart, while it may not succeed, few do, is in the market of quantifying financial risk. About the only other business that can think of that is more ubiquitous and older is the sex trade. Additionally, there is evidence that this business is the business that is the core of creating wealth throughout history.

I simply will not abandon my
investment because it is scary. I will sell based on the numbers that Saul uses. It is not often, and often when I do I lose money, that I do not follow Saul with his amazing time machine, but in this case, I feel that we are at the beginning of and amazing world wide transformational change and that is worth having some difficulty seeing through the numbers and investing in something that is not like the others.

Note: I cannot explain everything I have seen. I can recommend a couple of books that have heavily influenced my ideas.

First, the very entertaining fictional series, “ The Baroque Cycle” at 8000 pages and covering an adventure that covers a couple of lifetime and
spans the entire globe, I do not recommend if you are on hospice, you are not likely to finish it.

Second,” The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy” it essentially the history of Bayes’ rule and the civil war among statisticians that is caused. I might add that while machine learning has replaced Bayes’ rule, at least in Google’s algorithm, the ideas that Bayes put out seem, to this simple technician, to be the foundation of machine learning and AI.