Why the price of oil is not as vulnerable

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-trump-tariffs-trade-war-06-13-2025/card/iran-is-burning-but-this-isn-t-1979-NjZfFTqUJ5oz0ySAZwJA

Iran Is Burning, but This Isn’t 1979

By Spencer Jakab, The Wall Street Journal, 6/13/25

… [snip history of previous oil price shocks]…

Oil is still important, but this isn’t 1973. Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy points out that back then, one barrel of oil was responsible for $1,000 of gross domestic product. Today it is less than half that.

And technological change has made the market more resilient. The faster capital and production cycle of oil from shale formations, the main source of production in the U.S., now the top global producer, means production can respond within months, not years. The U.S. also has become the world’s top natural-gas exporter in recent years… [end quote]

Iran’s nuclear program is an existential threat to Israel. Israel acted surgically and decisively to mitigate this threat in self-defense. This also benefits the U.S. which Iran calls “The Great Satan.”

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/israel-strike-iran-nuclear-attack-netanyahu-trump-c344199b?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

The impact on oil prices will be minimal in the long term. The U.S. is now independent in energy so it won’t cause a recession here.

Wendy

6 Likes

This isn’t 73, or 79. The closest analog is when the US invaded Iraq, in 2003, taking that country’s oil production off line.

Steve

Steve, currently nothing has been taken off line, so what is it that you’re expecting?

DB2

1 Like

Not necessarily “expecting”, but “possible”, like insurance companies declaring Iran a “war zone”, and jacking insurance rates on tankers to prohibitive levels.

Steve

An existential threat to the whole world! Iran is being run by mad, dogmatic, religious, bloodthirsty bullies.

Escalation, escalation, , escalation.

The Captain

5 Likes

We heard that about Iraq, in 2002. Turned out to be pure hokum. The fact the UN is agreeing Iran was pushing the envelope, does add more weight to the case than SecState Powell showing the UN drawings of “mobile bio-weapons labs”. But “Bibi” saying Iran was only a couple weeks from having an arsenal of A-bombs? Not really sure about that.

Will we ever learn the truth? Probably not, because Iran is too big to straight up invade, occupy, and search in detail.

Steve

France’s Macron says Iran responsible for destabilising region
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/frances-macron-says-iran-responsible-destabilising-region-2025-06-13/
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that Iran bore a heavy responsibility for destabilisation of the Middle East and that it had pushed ahead with an unjustified nuclear programme, but he also urged restraint after Israel struck Iran.

After a day of talks with regional and international leaders following Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets, notably its nuclear sites, Macron said Tehran was close to a “critical point” in acquiring a nuclear weapon.

DB2

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I didn’t realize how much we have in common.

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You have a choice a nuclear war between Iran and SA one day. You wont want to be alive no matter where you live on the globe.

Or what is happening now.

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Do you know how long this war as been ongoing?

FOURTEEN CENTURIES!

  • It started in 632 when Mohammad died
  • The first big reversal came in 732 at the Battle of Tours in southern France
  • in 100 years the Muslims had conquered all of North Africa, large parts of the Iberian peninsula to the West and god knows much land and peoples to the northeast on Mecca
  • Multiple battles are recorded, the Sieges of Vienna, Lepanto (where Cervantes was wounded and became known as “El Manco de Lepanto,” The One-Armed Man of Lepanto), the Crusades, the 20th century wars in The Levant (sunrise).

I know why I’m on which side.

The Captain

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@captainccs wrote, "Do you know how long this war as been ongoing?

FOURTEEN CENTURIES!’

For details, I recommend the excellent book, " Sword And The Scimitar," by David Ball.

The massive attacks on Israel and the ongoing declaration that Israel must be destroyed can only be ignored by those who want Israel to be destroyed.

Wendy

5 Likes