Worst ever 1 day drop -3.47%

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
#3

<<<I’m far more disappointed over my poor decisions.>>>

Why? What decision have you made that is wrong other than going fully in cash, paying the taxes (if any) and buying back in at the bottom?

If NVDA turns out to be a has been, then yeah, there goes one. I do not see any signs of that, but yeah things are turning more negative. I have been concerned about the cryptocurrency issues. NVDA cannot meet demand because cryptocurrency miners are buying up all the supply at stores. If crypto crashes these GPUs may hit the market if alternative uses for them are not found (and there are some other alternative uses) but it could be ouch for a few quarters.

The autonomous driving issue…ouch.

This always happens. I have found that there is little in the way of coincidence in the world. I won’t go into full details of it, but one such instance is when things turn bad, they really turn. And when things turn good they really turn. Things go up, they go down.

MDB was up more than 15% yesterday, today down 7%. Hey, still up! May not be after tomorrow, may be so. Heck, it was up nearly 3% yesterday until probably the Zuckerburg news or something like that. Facebook has absolutely zilch to do with Mongo or AYX or most of these companies, but all go down.

Was it a poor decision to not trade in and out of all these events. Dang, you could have gone immediately short!!! Missed opportunity!

I don’t think so. Stick with your strategy. Time is on your side. If we were in a bubble, that would be something else. TTD is selling for just over 20x fwd earnings, NVDA 30x, etc. If NVDA was a fluke that would be cut in half and still would have a nice profit. PSTG is only at 45x and they don’t really have profits.

A.J. the only poor decision is not to get in the market and invest and create wealth for yourself and your family (if, when any). A poor decision would be to invest in bonds. A poor decision would be not to save at all.

It is but one day in the market. If you are going to celebrate the up, you are going to have reciprocal down days. Ask Saul, he has had many a down year. That is the market.

Tinker

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#4

Why? What decision have you made that is wrong other than going fully in cash, paying the taxes (if any) and buying back in at the bottom?

I didn’t explain myself well so apologies for continuing the thread further. What I meant, is I get disappointed when I make bad decisions on stocks, but not when the overall market is declining.

That was the point. I really don’t stress when the market goes haywire. It is just bound to happen and I don’t have any other plan in place but to stay in the market.

Thanks,
A.J.

1 Like
#5

I’m a little confused. This is a Motley Fool community forum (read: Tom and Dave Gardner). And every other sentence in their SA and RB recommendations they say “keep in mind you should be holding this stock 3-5 years”. And maybe Saul has slightly modified this concept, and maybe this forum has a bunch of Tagalongs and NeckBeards saying “just bought just sold just bought just sold and bought again a tiny position but might buy more and here is another hundred pounds of blather”, and maybe you just stumbled in off the street trying to find stock friends without paying the tiny subscription for SA and/or RB and maybe. . . . .uh . . . . where was I? Uh, never mind.

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#6

“I don’t have any other plan in place but to stay in the market.”

Don’t agree with this statement AJ. Everyone should have a plan! Was down 3% today but up about 5.5% yesterday. Been slowly but surely taking some off the table, particularly where profits have gone over 30% in just a few months and over 60-75% plus in 6 months to over a year. It may not be the best plan, but its a plan. Who knows what is right, but I want to have the cash when most needed and not see some of our “possibly” high risk Companies go down further by 30-50% as quick as you can blink an eyelid. When some of them go up so fast, they can fall the same way, regardless of what TMF says holding for 3-5 years. One can always jump back in. Lets trust that this is short lived but do have some sort of plan in place to cover yourself for all and any eventualities.

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#7

I do have some dry powder from cleaning out lower conviction stocks from my portfolio about a month ago.

Anyone buying? And if so, what?

#8

Anyone buying? And if so, what?

Not that anyone should be following me, but I bought NVDA, PSTG, and AYX today…and SHOP, FB, and MU over the previous week at what I considered opportune times (thank you Andrew Luck, again, and again, and again!).

#9

GPU’s used in mining may not have much popularity. Mining puts a lot of wear and tear on them in a relatively short time.

#10

One sector that held steady on Tuesday was REIT’s. They’d been diving for quite a while, and I suppose they reached a bottom.

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#11

Over the last few days I bought EA (starter), more of the following: ATVI, TTD, QTWO, ANET, SHOP.
As a novice who came into MF through a service that recommended buying 40 stocks, I have, by this board’s view, way too many holdings, but I’m in learning mode.

Really appreciate Saul’s and all of your contributions and help.

Anne

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#12

Worst ever 1 day drop -3.47%

A statistic of one sample is not all that reliable. You only die once so a statistic of one sample can still be meaningful.* :wink:

My one day drop was just a hair worse. I have a better statistic, my portfolio is down 7.6% from the top (January) and that is not considered a correction (10%).

http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/stock-m…

Sorry Bears, These Big Market Corrections Are Not Evidence ‘The End Is Near’
Kenneth Rapoza , CONTRIBUTOR

Investors have become too complacent. They have forgotten what a 500 point drop in a day feels like. Anything over that today is likened as the beginning of the end; a doozy of a crash. The bears are stretching their way out of hibernation. This expansion is over. Run for your lives!

Not so fast, prudent bears.
.
.
.
.
.
Despite all the volatility since the top in the Dow Jones Industrials on Jan. 26, the index is only down 573 points this year. That’s all in a day’s work in a market where volatility is now making a comeback. It’s not a sell sign. For some, it’s a buy-the-dips sign. The Dow opened higher, fell, and at noon today rose over 200 points. This is the Superman ride at Six Flags.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/03/27/sorry-bear…

Denny Schlesinger

  • For optimists, “you are only born once” works just as well. :wink:
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#13

a service that recommended buying 40 stocks,

The number of stocks in a portfolio should not depend on a magic number but on the particulars of the investor owning the portfolio. Imagine you are just starting with $5000. $125 per position does not make much sense, you could buy neither ALGN ($251), NVDA ($221), nor TREE ($349). With a very large portfolio when you no longer need growth, diversification is a form of insurance.

Anne, welcome to the World of Investing, it’s a fun ride!

Denny Schlesinger

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#14

Well that was pretty painful - my largest ever one day drop by value and leaving aside black Monday and Wednesday crashes, one of the highest ever % drop and I definitely don’t have Saul’s YTD cushion to sit comfortably on.

Anything to do with Tech seemed to drop 5%+ and any growth/momo stock seemed to get hit with a 3%+ cut.

Worst offenders: Wix, Nvidia, Nutanix, Twilio, YY and Shopify.

Trust no-one is bailing out of any windows or anything drastic.
Play it cool.
Ant

My portfolio has taken quite the hit as well. I’ve gone from a 14% gain to a 3.3% gain YTD in a few days. It’s unnerving but I’ve bought stocks that I plan on holding longer term. And this type of volatility is expected with a high growth oriented portfolio. I added some on the dip but it looks like I was a little early. I scooped up some YY at about 111 only to see it drop 10% further. And I bought some SHOP at about 130 but it’s dropped further.

I am tech heavy and have a good amount in some Chinese stocks (BIDU, NTES, etc.). All have been hit with strong indiscriminate selling despite strong fundamentals. I plan on waiting it out and adding if certain stocks get more attractive. I considered lightening up before the drop but short term capital gains taxes make that a bad option.

By the way, do you see any issues specific to YY that would explain its weakness? It’s off something like 33% from its high despite strong fundamentals and a low valuation with continued good growth.

dave

#15

Me, yesterday:

Not that anyone should be following me, but I bought NVDA, PSTG, and AYX today…and SHOP, FB, and MU over the previous week

…and added to my SQ, AMZN, and TSLA positions today.

All these adds have been with cash that I’ve been wanting to deploy but have been waiting for a pullback of some sort. Seem to have gotten it recently, I may be early, but I still have quite a bit of cash to deploy, we’ll see in a few years if these were smart moves.

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#16

<…and added to my SQ, AMZN, and TSLA positions today.>

Added to ANET, SQ, MU today here…
SQ hit particularly hard today it seems, MU is itching to rise but market not allowing it, a long and healthy life for MU i believe
yep, will see down the road if that was wise, still have some cash

#17

“I don’t have any other plan in place but to stay in the market.”

Don’t agree with this statement AJ

Branmin,

I hear you. I didn’t elucidate my thought well enough. I’ve looked at putting other plans in place that don’t simply stay in the market. I can’t find a strategy that I’m as comfortable with as holding. Therefore, that is my plan and don’t have any other plan.

I am not 100% invested and have cash. I would look to put that to use in a serious drop recognizing “serious” is ambiguous. But I’m talking about 2008 again or similar and not a 20% haircut to my stocks (a la Feb 2016). I probably took a larger than 20% hit too.

With your strategy of raising cash now. When do you expect to get back in? Do you have something mechanical in mind or more gut feel?

Just wanted to clarify my position. The lack of another plan isn’t due to lack of thought. Doing nothing is the best option I come up with.

I’m long term optimistic about the market and the stocks that I’m in. I watch the stocks closely to see if the story changes, but don’t let the market affect those decisions.

Regards,
A.J.

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#18

I raised cash the past few days in many high-growth names with large profits like NFLX and TWLO, cut back on some names like ATVI, dumped MU and AAPL with an eye on repurchasing lower depending on the story at the time of course.

Selling a few names during a downturn has some salutary effects:

  1. raises cash to redeploy elsewhere, if not immediately,
  2. lowers the number of names you are following, allows superior focus,
  3. reduces the emotional stress and strain from bad days, allowing clearer thinking.

Always have a plan. Any plan is better than the panic-selling that inevitably happens as downturns in stocks like SHOP or ANET or SQ or whatever blows through 20% to that 30-50% range that will inevitably happen.

Of course, you have to be willing to buy back in when that happens, not stay in frozen panic-mode. But that’s a lot easier than adding wholly new cash at that point in time [Do I go all-in now…or Now? or NOW? etc.]

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#19

“2) lowers the number of names you are following, allows superior focus.”

Yep, I am hyper-concentrated right now and it helps.

#20

Branmin,
High risk companies

Which companies specifically are you addressing? I don’t consider anything I’m in as high risk. Volatile, yes, I’ll grant you that. Most of these “Saul stocks” are issued by companies that are best of breed or hold near monopolies and growing like weeds. PSTG, maybe isn’t quite so well positioned from a product perspective, but their business model is hard to compete with.

I’m not being facetious, I would really like to know which companies you assess as being “high risk.”

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#21

I’m not being facetious, I would really like to know which companies you assess as being “high risk.”

All of them, Rock.

Any stock that goes up fast, can (and eventually will) go down fast. That may or may not be high risk,
but it is the very definition of volatility. While I don’t equate the two, they’re certainly related.

Now I’m thankful for having done the shuffle late last year. At least Some of the profits were locked in.
Oh wait, no, they’re in different high flyers now. :slight_smile:

If I had cash left, I think I’d be buying SDS hand over fist about now. http://schrts.co/qxnuKp

Dan

#22

Hi Rock,

Dan in his response just about summed it up…however, this is what I said. “Who knows what is right, but I want to have the cash when most needed and not see some of our “possibly” high risk Companies go down further by 30-50% as quick as you can blink an eyelid. When some of them go up so fast, they can fall the same way.”

Notice the word “Possibly” attached to high risk. Some here may not have gone through the 1998/2000 fun ride of the likes of JDSU,JNPR, etc but many have and know what it was like. At the time with all the talk about the 800lb Gorilla I am sure someone would have also questioned the “high Risk” factor. They come, they go to the moon and back and many disappear. Very comfortable with most of our(volatile) Companies, just suggesting that some may want to consider taking a bit off the table and using the cash when its really needed.

Not a Saul stock but a few of us on this board have them…VFFIF, EMHTF. High Risk without a doubt. But no different in their own way to the likes and huge future potential of NVDA, MDB, AYX, PSTG, ANET etc if legislation approved to what many believe will be a 10 bagger if not much more.