Gentlemen and Ladies,

Why does this stock price keep climbing the way it does? How long can it keep it up? 50%+ in the past 90 days! This company is a classic TMFSpiffyPop Rule Breaker. I have several times considered adding to my winning investment as it seems they keep finding ways to put their hooks into the next level of the real estate market, but it requires caution because it hurts when the Ruler gets Broken over the back of my knuckles. My caution has left me missing 10, 20, 30% more return on what ever capital I coulda/woulda allocated.

What to do?
1)Ride it up and up then ride it down and add more on the eventual dip? I believe David Gardner would propose this method, even adding as it rises and taking the potential short term loss in expectation that 5 years from now Z will be a much bigger, better, and valuable company.
2)Ride it up and up then bail out because the stock price has moved up 50%+ in 90 days and the meteoric flare has to burn out sometime? Of course, all the while keeping a watchful eye open to see the 10, 20, or 30% fall for re-entry point. I think the ‘Saulacratic Method’ might line up more here.

I understand final decisions are personal and individual. However, what are some rules that govern these decisions for some of you FoolaSaulus types out there?

FWIW as a discussion,


It depends how long you’ve held the stock. If you been holding more than a year the taxes are a lot lower than if you’ve held less than a year.

Why does this stock price keep climbing the way it does? How long can it keep it up?

Hi KL,

That’s the million dollar question, isn’t it. The trouble is that no one knows how long it can keep it up. If you sell now it could keep going up to $200 before it takes a rest. When it was up $15 from where you sold, would you buy back in or just watch it go? And if you timed it right and sold now, and it dropped $15 would you get back in, or would you wait for down $20? And then if it got to down $19 and started back up, would you panic at down $12 and buy back in? And then, what if it goes down $5 from there? Do you buy, sell or hold? In other words, trying to time the market in these stocks will drive you crazy. If you don’t have a good reason to sell (Things aren’t right with the company, it’s too big a proportion of your portfolio, sales and earnings are continually disappointing, etc), just stay with it and enjoy the ride. I added some as recently as June 2nd at $113.



Are u guys not concerned about valuation on Z?

5.5 B cap

2014 Fwd rev est 309 mill +56%

2014 Fwd eps est .29 +70%

It does have a bright future but priced for perfection?