ZM: On Growth Slowing Down

Anecdotally, my company uses both Webex and Zoom. We also utilize Slack and before that used Skype (primarily for IM) and I’ve dabbled in other conferencing services like GoToMeeting, etc. Webex used to be more flaky, but in the last year or so my experience is it’s gotten much more stable and reliable.

In terms of features, again my experience is that the two are virtually identical in terms of core features. Here are a couple of sites that compare the high level features:

https://www.capterra.com/web-conferencing-software/compare/7…

https://www.getapp.com/it-communications-software/a/cisco-we…

Not a lot of daylight between the two in terms of core features. Looks like Zoom may have the edge in terms of having an API as well as a greater number of out-of-the-box integrations, but I suspect the vast majority of customers won’t ever even consider utilizing those features let alone actually go forth with leveraging them.

Financials may be stellar (I’ll leave it to you all to pontificate on that), but IMO it’s one of the least moat-y products of all the SAAS investments bandied about on this board.

FWIW: I’ve worked in the SAAS biz as a developer/analyst/manager for over two decades now. Doesn’t make me an expert on conferencing software (if anything it makes me an atypical end user), but I do know my way around a SAAS UI.

ZM’s core features are more or less the same as competitors and cost of switching is virtually nil. Could be another example of a non-zero sum game/rapidly expanding TAM lifting all boats and ZM does well or ZM could fall out of favor for the next shiny toy, growth slows dramatically and stock follows accordingly.

If I had to guess, I’d say the truth will lie somewhere between these two outcomes which probably means ZM will come to dominate the space and their stock will burn hotter than 1000 suns for the next 10-20 years just to spite me.

Cheers,

Eric
no position in ZM or CSCO

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