the latest in earnings
Nov/Dec 2019
2019 felt like 2018 a bit – strong first half of the year, followed by a more ignoble end of year. I hit a YTD high of +69% on July 28, but then Aug-Sept hit all the SaaS companies, followed by a Oct-Dec that kept things pretty disappointing.
Yet, when I look at the final numbers, I ended 2019 at +40.6% after that high of +69%. 2020 started off strong too, up +15.7% – putting me ever closer back toward that former high. All in all, it’s been quite a successful year following this hypergrowth strategy. My thanks to Saul and everyone here.
It’s funny to think back on those times I had 60+ holdings… trimmed to 30 when I started here… with the thought that I’d narrow those down to 12-15 under Saul’s methods. I am finding my current 9 companies a chore to follow now. But maybe it is because I keep my life full of family and fun. However, I am really liking this condensed portfolio. It is a lot of work every quarter to follow their progress, but… this is NOT something I was ever able to do before! At even 30+ companies, I couldn’t even remember what some of them did. I really like following my companies closely, and, subsequently, feeling at lot more nimble by being able to react to things I am identifying, both good and bad. I am improving greatly in how I look at the numbers and trends thanks to those here. And conversely, I feel I am contributing back on the technical side, just as much as I gain.
Here’s to a lovely 2020 for us all! Fully of many adventures and vacations.
Holdings:
AYX 18% ... got more after post earnings drop
OKTA 15%
TTD 12% ... likely lowering
MDB 11% ... debating lowering
DDOG 10% ... new position that ramped up quick
CRWD 10% ... increased heavily
ZS 9%
ROKU 9%
SMAR 3% ... likely selling
New position: DDOG
Greatly increased: CRWD
Sold: SHOP, TWLO, ESTC. [Yes ESTC! It heads back to the watch list.]
Tier 1: AYX, OKTA, DDOG, CRWD
Tier 2: TTD, MDB, ZS, ROKU
Tier 3: SMAR
Watch: ZM, ESTC, COUP, TWLO, TLRA
Prior reports:
Aug/Sep 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/the-latest-in-earnings-34329275.aspx…
May/Jun 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/the-latest-in-earnings-34231103.aspx…
Feb/Mar 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/the-latest-in-earnings-34161547.aspx…
Oct/Nov 2018: https://discussion.fool.com/earnings-boil-downs-thus-far-3406063…
NOTE on my NOTES below: ^^ is “accelerating”, and !! is an especially important/impressive bit IMHO.
Summary:
MDB = rev +53%, sub rev +56%, Atlas +185%, opex +56%, custs +92% !!
CRWD = rev +88% !!, sub rev +98% !!, opex +47%, $NER >120%, custs +112% !!
ZS = rev +48%, opex +54%, $NER 120%
SMAR = rev +53%, opex +64%, $NER 134%, custs>100K +120% !!
ESTC = rev +63% ^^, sub rev +65% ^^ (all CCURR), opex +73%, $NER >130%
OKTA = rev +45%, sub rev +48%, rpo +68%, opex +47%, custs +32%, custs>100K +41%
ROKU = rev +50%, platform rev +79%, opex +60%, active accts +36%, stream hrs +68%
DDOG = rev +88% !!, opex +76%, $NER >130, custs +34%, custs>100K +93% !!
TTD = rev +38%, adj income +19.5%, opex +47%
AYX = rev +65% ^^, sub rev +89% !!, $NER 132%, custs +30%
TWLO = organic base rev +47%, opex +116%, $NER 132%
SHOP = rev +45%, sub rev +37%, merch rev +50%, GMV +48%, GPV +51%
Earnings:
======================
MDB - Q320
PR: https://investors.mongodb.com/file/Index?KeyFile=401492336
Phoolio take: https://discussion.fool.com/mongodb-is-about-an-8-position-for-m…
RGB historical numbers: https://discussion.fool.com/mdb-q3-selected-financial-data-34361…
CC transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/12/09/mo…
CC recap (Starrob): https://discussion.fool.com/4056/mongodb-q3-2020-earnings-prepar…
CC Q&A (Starrob): https://discussion.fool.com/4056/there-are-a-lot-of-good-topics-…
Revenue 109.4M +52.5%
- Sub Rev 103.8M +56%
– Atlas +185%
… 40% of rev +1900bps, +300bps seq - Svcs Rev 5.6M +8%
Gross Profit 77.3M
Gross Margin 72.5% -403bps (mLab acq)
Adj op loss -14.3M (vs -7.8M)
… margin -13% (vs -12%)
Adj loss -14.6M (vs -6.9M)
Adj EPS -0.26 (vs -0.13M)
Opex 116M +56%
FCF -13.1M (vs -9.7M)
… margin -12% (vs -15%)
Custs 15.9k +91.6% !!
- Custs >100k 688 +40.4%
- Atlas custs 14.2K +129% (mLab acq was 4200)
Cash 426M
- new Atlas feature AutoScaling using ML to right-size clusters based on demand forecast
- former CEO/founder of Cognizant joined board
- new partnership w Alibaba: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/mongodb-and-alibaba-cloud-launc… [see Q&A for answer covering this on how it is structured - it isn’t Atlas]
Sparks on future catalysts: https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2019/12/18/3…
Smorgasbord on DocumentDB vs MDB: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/i39ll-preface-this-with-that-i-…
BreakerForce on conv debt offering: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/it39s-a-good-thing-for-the-comp…
My stance: Pretty drastic deceleration in hypergrowth, from 78% to 52% in 3Qs (in ASC 606); sub rev went from 82% to 56% – so basically back to growth levels from a year ago. What at first seems like “growing losses” is masked by hypergrowth; op loss margin is flat and FCF margin slightly improved. Great customer growth still. Atlas is still the star performer, but the fantastic burst of growth acceleration it caused over last year is over. New search products Atlas Data Lake and Full-Text Search are still in beta, so there is more to come. We finally lapped the mLab acquire so I can stop talking about it. Thinking about paring down, but Atlas (and its consumption based SaaS pricing) has kept me in thus far.
======================
CRWD - Q320
pre earnings
Bear - losses reducing: https://discussion.fool.com/encouraging-crwd-trend-34348015.aspx…
Saul - other trends to watch: https://discussion.fool.com/bear-other-interesting-crwd-trends-f…
Saul - correcting false metrics: https://discussion.fool.com/crwd-correcting-false-metrics-and-su…
PR: https://ir.crowdstrike.com/news-releases/news-release-detail…
Bear take: https://discussion.fool.com/crwd-q3-blowout-34358914.aspx
Saul take: https://discussion.fool.com/crowd-a-moderately-deep-dive-on-earn…
Saul sees good signs: https://discussion.fool.com/crowdstrike-the-financial-are-stella…
CC transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/12/06/cr…
Bear CC tidbit: https://discussion.fool.com/a-crowdstrike-cc-commercial-34367658…
Revenue 125.1M +88% !!
- Sub Rev 114.2M +98% !!
ARR 502M +97% !!
OpEx +47%
Sub Gross Margin 76% +500bps
Adj Op Loss -16.5M (vs -28.6M)
… margin -13% (vs -43%) !!
Adj Loss -13.4M (vs -28.8M)
CFFO 39M (vs -4M)
… margin 31.2% !!
FCF 7M (vs -13.1M) swung pos !!
… margin 5.6% (vs -19.7%) !!
Custs 4561 +112% !!
Cash 833.7M
$NER >120%
- now analyzing 2.5T events/week
-
50% of custs adopt 4+ products, 30% with 5+
- new firewall mgmt module to help customers transition from legacy setups
- introduced Falcon for AWS endpoints, avail in AWS marketplace https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191105005232/en/Cro…
- partnered with Wipro (IT consulting) to bring CRWD to their custs
- 7 new 3rd party apps in CrowdStrike Store
- Gartner customer rating 4.9 of 5 stars
- received highest score for “Lean Forward” orgs in Gartner’s latest EPP report
- named by Forrester Research as a Leader in Forrester Wave: Endpoint Security Suites (ESS), Q3 2019 report
- named best new Endpoint Solution by SE Labs
- announced partnership with Zscaler (see details under ZS)
Pencils on ZM vs CRWD: https://discussion.fool.com/this-revenue-comparison-falls-short-…
Bear rebuttal: https://discussion.fool.com/this-revenue-comparison-falls-short-…
My stance: Impressed. Massive hypergrowth on top line drove incredible bottom line improvements. Greatly increased my allocation from 1% to 10% from ESTC and TWLO sales. FCF swung positive this Q, after CFFO swung positive last Q. Just wow.
[After reading Pencil’s comparison - why do I not own ZM… going to top of watch list.]
======================
ZS - Q120
pre-earnings
Brittlerock on new CRO: https://discussion.fool.com/saul-just-a-little-possibly-stale-in…
Tinker on lack of competition: https://discussion.fool.com/zscaler-billables-34329055.aspx
PR: https://ir.zscaler.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zs…
Tedyum take: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/zs-page-01-and-tg-take-on-q1-20…
Saul take: https://discussion.fool.com/it-wasnt-too-long-ago-that-zscaler-w…
Monkey take: https://discussion.fool.com/zscaler-conference-call-impression-3…
Bear sees slowdown: https://discussion.fool.com/calculated-billings-q2-fy18-up-49-q3…
ethan take: https://discussion.fool.com/my-take-on-zscaler-34357939.aspx
Tinker reducing: https://discussion.fool.com/i-am-going-to-go-back-and-read-the-m…
CC transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/12/03/zs…
CC highlights: https://discussion.fool.com/zs-conference-call-highlights-ceo-se…
Revenue 93.6M +48%
Billings 88.3M +37%
Deferred Rev 245.9M +49%
Adj Op Income 2.9M (vs 1.2M)
… margin 3% (vs 2%)
Adj Income 4.1M (vs 2.3M)
Opex 92.3M +54%
CFFO 21.4M
FCF 9.4M (vs 5.2M)
… margin 10% (vs 8%)
Cash 377.6M
$NER 120% (+200bps)
- announced new product B2B in beta [see my Flavors of Security writeup on ZS for more details]
** builds on existing ZPA Zero Trust features
** allows groups of companies to create micro-networks between themselves - first cloud security provider to be certified in the Microsoft Networking Partner Program (NPP) for Office 365: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zscaler-microsoft-accelerate-…
- partnered with CrowdStrike to dual market to customers for dual endpoint and traffic protection, and to better integrate ThreatInsight with ZScaler platform
- once again named Leader in Gartner MQ for SWGs
- hosted ZenithLive summit in Vegas and Portugal
- got FedRAMP Ready status at High Impact level https://discussion.fool.com/zs-zpa-achieves-fedramp-8220ready822…
Marketing has adopted the new Gartner “SASE” term: https://www.zscaler.com/products/secure-access-service-edge
Symantec settles patent dispute: https://www.crn.com/news/security/zscaler-to-pay-15-million-…
My stance: I continue to hold my original position, yet did not bolster it at those lower prices over last 4mo, as ZS had something to prove. I see marketing already changing a bit; they adopted the SASE term from Gardner’s latest report pretty quickly. [See the bottom of this part of my Flavors of Security series for more on SASE: https://discussion.fool.com/part-2b-a-new-dawn-network-appliance… ]. As discussed in the ZS part of Flavors of Security, the new B2B product line is an extremely interesting angle to take with what they have built with Zero Trust in ZPA. With B2B combined with the new marketing revamp, I remain with my full position as I expect growth to rekindle. It has finally rebounded nicely in Jan after 4mo in the doldrums, so patience paid off.
======================
SMAR - Q320
PR: https://investors.smartsheet.com/press-releases/press-releas…
Bear take: https://discussion.fool.com/smar-q3-34358589.aspx?sort=whole#343…
Revenue 71.5M +53%
- Sub Rev 64.4M +55%
- Pro Svcs 7.2M +34%
Adj Op Loss -20.7M (vs -10.2M)
… margin -29% (vs -22%)
Adj Loss -17.7M (vs -9.4M)
FCF -2.9M (vs -2M)
OpEx +64%
Custs 83k
- Custs >50K 770 +114% !!
- Custs >100K 279 +120% !!
ACV 3286 +48% !!
$NER 134%
My stance: Still not sure what to think about Smartsheets (the company or the product), and their execution is not helping matters. Bottom line gets worse and worse. Top line growth remains solid, yet opex is growing faster. But the customers keep on coming and keep spending more, so the company is good at delivering value to their them. I wish things looked different, however, as I don’t feel they need to remain in “land grab” mode as much as other companies I own. I plan on shifting this position into a stronger performer, likely one of the profitable hypergrowth stories. [I am starting to look at COUP and ZM.]
======================
ESTC - Q220
PR: https://ir.elastic.co/file/Index?KeyFile=401392513
Darth take: https://discussion.fool.com/estc-had-a-really-good-quarter-here-…
Bear take: https://discussion.fool.com/my-thoughts-on-elastic39s-quarter-34…
Revenue 101.1M +59% (+63% CCURR) ^^
- Sub Rev 79.4M +64.6% (+67% CCURR) ^^
– SaaS Rev 20.6M +106% (+114% CCURR) ^^
Billings 125.3M +41% (+45% CCURR)
Deferred Rev 201.3M +58%
Gross Margins 74.4% +101bps - Sub GM 80.6%
Op loss -52M
Adj Op loss -18.4M
… margin -18%
Adj EPS -0.22
Opex 124.3M +72.5%
CFFO 0.3M
FCF -1.4M
$NER >130%
Cash 305.2M
Custs 9700 +10% seq - Custs >100K 525 +10.5% seq
- completed Endgame acq
- introduced Endpoint Security EPP product that integrates with Elastic SIEM
** single price - no per-system pricing - new releases of Elastic Stack, v7.4 and v7.5
- new connectors for Elastic Enterprise Search including MSFT Sharepoint, Office365, OneDrive, as well as ServiceNow
- had 12 ElasticON events this Q globally
- Elasticsearch Service now on Google Cloud Platform (GCP) Marketplace
- Elasticsearch Service now on Azure (preview)
- new board member, former Cisco SVP
Lawsuit against stolen code, used in Open distro: https://discussion.fool.com/breaking-elastic-sues-search-guard-3…
Darth - ESTC vs DDOG: https://discussion.fool.com/12-billion-is-just-a-lot-for-a-compa…
My stance: What the what! I sold out of ESTC at the end of the year for tax loss harvesting. The top line is accelerating on CCURR growth, yet opex is growing faster. But like MDB, this is the tale of Elastic Cloud (with its consumption SaaS pricing) that is leading the top line growth. There are so many relevant uses for Elastic Stack – but at the same time it’s a difficult platform to work with. I will reenter this due to the accelerating top line, but for now these funds are shifted to DDOG. See my post on DDOG vs ESTC - I think customers are ultimately finding the convenience more appealing than price. https://discussion.fool.com/for-those-that-aren39t-aware-i-am-34…
======================
OKTA - Q320
PR: https://investor.okta.com/news-releases/news-release-details…
PR slide deck: https://investor.okta.com/static-files/129354ed-4045-484e-8b… [<<< good stuff]
Fool recap (Hobo): https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/06/okta-shows-no-sign…
CC recap (Starrob): https://discussion.fool.com/4056/okta-q3-fy2020-prepared-remarks…
CC Q&A (Starrob): https://discussion.fool.com/4056/okta-inc-nasdaqokta-q3-2020-ear…
Revenue 153M +45%
- Sub Rev 145M +48%
- Int’l rev 37%
Billings 175.6M +42%
Current RPO 516M +52%
RPO 1.03B +68% !!
Adj Op Loss -8.1M (vs -6.5M)
… margin -5% (vs -6%)
Adj EPS -0.07
FCF 9.2M (vs 1.4M)
… margin 6% +470bps (vs 1.3%)
Adj Gross Margin 77.8% +200bps - Adj Sub GM 82.6% +40bps
$NER 117% -300bps
OpEx +47%
Empl +44%
Custs 7400 +32%, +5.7% seq - Custs >100K 1325 +41%, +8.4% seq
Cash 1.37B
- strong Q3 made them raise yearly targets
- RPO continues to grow faster due to larger new deals, longer terms (bigger customers) [side effect is dropping $NER]
- continued land and expand into major enterprise custs
** signed Fortune 50 telecom onto customer platform (previously used Microsoft)
** signed Fortune 500 packaging mfr onto user platform
** athenahealth now uses Okta for all patients, providers, caregivers and staff (10s of millions of users) - named a Leader in Forrester Wave “Zero Trust eXtended Ecosystem Platform Providers”, Q4 2019, as it did last year
- held new Okta Showcase event held in Oct 2019 (see write-up of new products in my last report, which came out after the event)
- announced Access Gateway is now GA [this is their new IAP service (Zero Trust + IAM), making this a competing product to Zscaler’s ZPA, if you recall from my Flavors of Security posts]
- on Jan 28 will release 6th ed of “Businesses at Work” report that provides in-depth look into their SaaS integrations [WATCH FOR THIS, it is good insight into SaaS usage patterns]
My stance: Highly recommend the slide deck Okta released for the quarter. They hover at losses intentionally, with losses spiking during their Oktane customer conf. New market in Zero Access is unlocking with their Access Gateway product (orig from ScaleFT acq), which competes against Zscaler ZPA. Headcount continues to grow at brisk clip to expand into new geo markets.
One con - Int’l segment dropped from 60% to 45% to 37% over last 3Q. Similar issue to AYX - are local sales teams doing enough? It was asked about in Q&A.
======================
ROKU - Q319
pre earnings
Darth series looking at margins:
https://discussion.fool.com/platform-gm-will-continue-to-be-low-…
https://discussion.fool.com/ok-on-to-the-gm-for-ads-roku-shares-…
Shareholder letter: https://ir.roku.com/static-files/ef6c5b39-0887-4746-a0cc-aaf…
Beth take: https://beth.technology/roku-earnings-review-q3-2019/
Fool recap (Sparks): https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/06/roku-q3-earnings-h…
BreakerJohn recap: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/roku-q3-19-ticker-take-redo-343…
CC transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/11/06/ro…
CC recap (Starrob): https://discussion.fool.com/4056/roku-q3-2019-full-earnings-call…
Revenue 260.9M +50%
- Platform rev 179.3 +79%
- Player rev 81.6 +11%
Gross Profit 118.5 +50% - Platform Profit 112.2M +59%
Gross Margin 45.4% -15bps - Platform GM 62.6% -791bps
Adj op loss -26.55M
… margin -10.2% vs -6.8%
Opex 60%
FCF -13.77M
Player Units +21%
ASP -9% (lowering prices)
Active Accts 32.3M +36%, +5.9% seq
Streaming Hours 10.3B +68%, +9.6% seq
ARPU 22.58 +30%
Cash 388M
- new lineup of hardware, w/ new low and high end players
- new soundbar & wireless subwoofer (coming for you, Sonos)
- Apple TV+ & Disney+ launched
- monitized video ad impressions doubled again YoY
- acquired Dataxu demand-side ad platform (TTD competitor)
** will integrate into Platform segment (not be separate)
** side note: Dataxu was allowed access to Amazon Fire platform w/ TTD, then after Roku acq was dropped w AMZN - new RokuOS feature w/ prompt user to close channels that are watched for a long time w/o user interaction (TV left on)
- entered UK market via Roku OS on Hisense TVs
Vena - kicking off Euro expansion: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/22/roku-just-kicked-o…
CFO interview - top metrics to watch: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/cfo-steve-louden-interview-key-…
My stance: The Roku story keeps on chugging along. Execution has been stellar with the move to low-cost players (low margins) to get the platform (premium channels & ad revenue) to be more ubiquitous; aka the razor-blade model. Platform rev growth has been ~79-86% for 4Qs now that I’ve been an owner. Keeping an eye on the falling op loss margins. Acquisition of Dataxu shows them hyper-focused on ad buying on their platform and seems an excellent move.
======================
DDOG - Q319
… see my tech deep dive from December: https://discussion.fool.com/a-datadog-technical-review-34363397…
PR: https://investors.datadoghq.com/news-releases/news-release-d…
Fool recap (Munarriz): https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2019/11/13/d…
Saul take: https://discussion.fool.com/datadog-earnings-and-cc-my-summary-3…
CC transcript: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4306052-datadogs-ddog-ceo-o…
CC recap (Starrob): https://discussion.fool.com/4056/datadog-q3-2019-prepared-remark…
Mekong prior numbers: https://discussion.fool.com/yes-looks-very-good-just-looking-at-…
Revenue 95.9M +88% !!
Adj op income 0.6M swung pos !!
… margin +0.7% vs -6%
Adj EPS 0.00 !!
CFFO 3.8M
FCF -3.7M
Gross Margin 76%
OpEx 76.7M +76%
$NER >130% for 9Qs
Custs 9500 +34%
- Custs >100K 727 +93% !!
Cash 771M (709M from IPO)
- Revenue is all sub rev - doesn’t need Pro Svcs
- 15+ new products/features/enhancements announced at Dash (annual user conf) in July
- Network Performance Monitoring
- Real User Monitoring
- ML/AI capabilities
- as of Oct, are ‘in process’ for FedRAMP approval
- recognized as Leader in Forrester Wave for Intelligent App & Service Monitoring
- 50% of custs uses 2+ products (+3500bps YoY !!)
New product Security Monitoring: https://discussion.fool.com/ddog-announces-security-monitoring-3…
Integration with Azure DevOps platform: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191212005797/en/Dat…
Brittlerock - history of monitoring: https://discussion.fool.com/wow-thanks-for-the-condensed-version…
Saul - ESTC vs DDOG: https://discussion.fool.com/still-dont-get-why-they-should-get-d…
Darth - a look at APM expected growth: https://discussion.fool.com/a-follow-up-to-my-last-post-about-th…
Hermione - DDOG vs AYX: https://discussion.fool.com/so-how-should-we-evaluate-ddog-vs-ay…
Darth - DDOG vs ESTC: https://discussion.fool.com/i-get-sauls-argument-and-i-get-dream…
Gaucho - DDOG yea or nay: https://discussion.fool.com/i-don39t-believe-any-track-record-ex…
My stance: I don’t normally jump into large positions this quickly, but I did so with DDOG after its recent IPO. Incredibly high hypergrowth while bumping on profitable right out of the gate - a combination I like quite a lot. I sold ESTC to harvest tax loss, then used that cash to ramp up investment in DDOG more rapidly. (I will likely get back into ESTC after 30d wash rule.)
======================
TTD - Q319
PR: http://investors.thetradedesk.com/news-releases/news-release…
Fool recap (Sparks): https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/08/the-trade-desks-q3…
Phoolio take: https://discussion.fool.com/jeff-greens-unwillingness-to-provide…
Dreamer take: https://discussion.fool.com/i-am-starting-to-wonder-if-ttd-is-a-…
CC transcript: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/11/07/th…
CC notes (edyboom): https://discussion.fool.com/4056/conference-call-notes-34338048…
Dreamer catalysts from here: https://discussion.fool.com/i-have-grown-into-the-opinion-that-t…
Gaucho look at guidance history: https://discussion.fool.com/ttd-guidance-history-34339300.aspx
SoonerAJ tailwinds into 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/ttd-and-2020-34378377.aspx
mekong take: https://discussion.fool.com/i-might-have-said-it-last-time-too-b…
Revenue 164.2M +38%
- Mobile +50%
– Video +50%
– In-app +58% - CTV +145%
- Audio +160%
Adj Income 36.1M +19.5%
Adj EPS 0.75 +15%
Opex 142.3M +47%
mekong - TTD is now only 3rd party DSP allowed on FireTV (Dataxu dropped): https://discussion.fool.com/ttd-only-3rd-party-dsp-on-fire-tv-no…
TMF Industry Focus - CTV trends: https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2019/11/19/c…
CEO interview highlights: https://discussion.fool.com/jeff-green-my-thoughts-34365004.aspx…
Phoolio - segments of ttl rev: https://discussion.fool.com/here39s-what-i-wrote-yesterday-in-q2…
- Mobile 47% of ttl
- Video >25%
- Display (desktop) >20%
- Audio 5%
My stance: Bottom line growth is slowing heavily (+19.5% vs +45% last Q), while revenue growth continues to fall pretty drastically. Opex is now growing faster than revenue over last 2Q. CEO says revenue will re-accelerate in 2020, but why the drastic lull? They do continue to make huge strides in CTV/Audio, helped by the fact Amazon FireTV platform was opened up to them. China just beginning. My TTD position may shrink over the next month as I reevaluate.
======================
AYX - Q319
PR: https://investor.alteryx.com/news-and-events/press-releases/…
Fool recap: https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/investing/2019/11/10/w…
FrankDip recap: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/ticker-guide-take-q3-results-34…
Wouter take: https://discussion.fool.com/my-take-on-ayx-results-34334086.aspx…
GauchoChris take: https://discussion.fool.com/34360288.aspx
CC transcript: https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/earnings/call-transcri…
CC recap (edyboom): https://discussion.fool.com/4056/conference-call-notes-34332350…
Revenue 103.4M +65% ^^
- Sub Rev 53.3M +88.5% !!
- Svc Rev 49.1M +45%
- geosegments:
– US 74.7M +73% !!
– Int’l 28.7M +48% (-1000bps seq)
Gross Margin 91%
Adj Op Income 22.0M +53.8%
… margin 21.3% (vs 22.8%)
Adj EPS 0.24 +33%
$NER 132%
Custs 5613 +335 +30% (vs +375 last yr) - Global 2000 custs 683 +4% seq
… 34% penetration
Empl 1176 +55%
- continued focus on land-and-expand, across larger enterprises
- customer growth slowing, but focusing on higher quality (Global 2000) and larger deals
- new deals >$250K grew +92% !! (+4200bps seq?! … wow)
- have 1/3rd of the Global 2000 right now, continue to focus on it
- $NER for Global 2000 typically 10% better than avg, kicking in within 4-6Q
- 20% of revenue is from resellers
- acquired FeatureLabs ML/AI startup for analytic automation: https://investor.alteryx.com/news-and-events/press-releases/…
- convertible note offering in Aug for +$800M cash
- new COO hired from Hortonworks: https://investor.alteryx.com/news-and-events/press-releases/…
CFO interview: https://discussion.fool.com/ayx-cfo-with-alphastreet-34337197.as…
CFO interview (CMLViz): https://discussion.fool.com/ayx-cfo-interview-34348613.aspx
Wouter tidbits from proxy: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/i-went-through-the-ayx-proxy-wh…
Jambo highlights from Raymond James conf: https://discussion.fool.com/ayx-at-raymond-james-34365266.aspx
Anecdote on use in PWC: https://discussion.fool.com/ayx-anecdote-34367659.aspx
FrankDip highlights from Needham conf: https://discussion.fool.com/notes-alteryx-at-needham-conference-…
My stance: Accelerating revenue (51% to 59% to 65% over last 3Q) at this level of hypergrowth always gets my attention, and then the stock drops? Well then I must increase my (already high %) holdings! Larger (>$250K) deals nearly doubled. Continued focus on analytics land grab, against little to no competition, and expanding use from there (land-and-expand) – especially focused on Global 2000, who have a ~10% higher $NER.
Something to watch - Int’l rev growth had a sharp drop seq (like Okta), and isn’t keeping up w/ Domestic – which is on fire and driving the rev acceleration. Are the new markets drying up already? Do those newly created localized teams need more time, or do they require an immediate shakeup?
======================
TWLO - Q319
PR: https://investors.twilio.com/all-news/press-release-details/…
Fool recap: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/11/10/twilio-disappointe…
Tedyun take: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/twlo-q3-2019-earnings-8211-tick…
Saul take on hiding organic growth: https://discussion.fool.com/jeff-lawson-said-the-following-in-th…
Bear selling: https://discussion.fool.com/twlo-good-or-bad-34334746.aspx
Monkey take: https://discussion.fool.com/call-is-not-going-well-in-my-opinion…
CC transcript: https://www.fool.com/premium/coverage/earnings/call-transcri…
BwithBike take: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/23/is-twilio-stock-a-…
Revenue 295.1M +75%
Base Rev 275.5M +79%
… organic 47%, SendGrid 32%
Adj Loss -3.6M swung neg
OpEx +116%
$NER 132% (vs -1200bps, -800bps seq)
Cash 1.88B
- new product Conversations, unified API tools for managing messaging channels
- new product SendGrid Ads, expanding SendGrid tooling to target email campaigns via display/social ad platforms like Fb, Insta, Google
- new product Media Streams, API tools to analyze voice calls in real-time (instead of via after-the-fact recordings)
- new enhancment Verified by Twilio, allowing businesses to preannounce brand on phone calls, then announced add’l feature for Verified SMS
My stance: Bear’s reasons for selling resonated strongly, especially with OpEx going up so much since SendGrid acq, while growth, masked by that acq, is dropping so strongly. Ultimately they are now 47% organic growth (back to Q118’s rate), and, once they lap the acq Feb 1, SendGrid’s lower growth will drag that top line down to low-40s or even possibly lower. I have many higher hypergrowth options to invest in (including more profitable ones), so sold out completely around Thanksgiving.
======================
SHOP - Q319
PR: https://investors.shopify.com/Investor-News-Details/2019/Sho…
hrp take: https://discussion.fool.com/i-am-long-on-shopify-made-my-first-a…
Revenue 390.6M +45%
- Sub Rev 165.6M +37%
– mRR 50.7M +35%
— Shopify Plus 13.5M +27% - Merchant Sol Rev 225M +50%
GMV 14.8B +48%
GPV 6.2B +51%
Op Loss -35.7M
… margin -9% (vs -12%)
Adj Loss -33.6M
Adj EPS -0.29
Cash 2.67B
Capital 141M loans +85%
- one time tax provision of 48.3M caused loss
-
1M merchants globally
- CBD added in US stores
- launched Shopify Chat for customer conversations
- added Turkish, now 19 langs
- added Italy to Payments, now in 14 countries
- 44% of merchants in US/Can using Shipping
- mobile 81% of traffic +400bps, 71% of orders +400bps
- new extension Shopify Email to allow merchants to run email campaigns (directly compete w/ SendGrid): https://marketingland.com/shopify-to-roll-out-shopify-email-…
Fulfillment Network:
- planning 7 warehouses in FY20
- acquired 6 River Systems (6RS) for robot fleets
- acquired Handshake B2B wholesale purchasing platform
BwithBike thoughts: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/04/5-things-investors…
Anthonyms thoughts on 6RS: https://discussion.fool.com/4056/i-think-this-is-interesting-for…
LifeIsGood take on Black Friday: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/05/shopify-scores-mas…
My stance: After the repeated doldrums for SaaS stocks, I finally moved out of SHOP at end of Oct to raise cash for other (faster) hypergrowth stories. Not a good call, as SHOP has risen ~45% since. It is simply still putting up quite good numbers for its size, as they continue to keep solving issues for customers, recently by making moves into having its own Fulfillment Network. It’s probably also still rising on Canadian marijuana speculation too.
If I were holding for 5-10yr w/o paying attn, this would be an easy choice to hold - but if one is more nimble (a lesson from Saul)… there are lots of smaller/faster plays to be had over that time that should result in higher returns over that time.
-muji
long many of these, as mentioned
(see my profile for a list of my holdings)