Today isn’t panic, just noise. I’m waiting for real revulsion.
Golden Cross on the SPX. The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a major long-term moving average to the upside. I would use the 50 and 200 day MA because past bear markets had significant short-term pops that failed and went lower. Similar to the “mungofitch 99 day rule” of staying out of the market if there has not been a new high for 99 days or more.
VIX 35 to 40.
OFR Financial Stress > 5.
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index > 2.5. I think this series is less reliable than OFR Financial Stress since it’s showing that financial stress now is exceptionally low even though interest rates are going up. But when it spikes it’s like fireworks going off. I don’t expect a major panic but any value over 1 in this index indicates serious market stress and a buying opportunity.
Free Credit Balances in Customers’ Securities Margin Accounts < $150 billion.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2603/vix-volatility-index-histor…
https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI3
https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-inv…
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/121114/what-differe…
Wendy