Knee Cartilage replacement [only approved by FDA in Dec 2016]
MACI® (autologous cultured chondrocytes on porcine collagen membrane) is an autologous cellularized scaffold product that is indicated for the repair of single or multiple symptomatic, full-thickness cartilage defects of the adult knee, with or without bone involvement.
Skin Replacement for Severe burn vitims
Epicel® (cultured epidermal autografts) is indicated for use in adults and pediatric patients who have deep dermal or full thickness burns comprising a total body surface area greater than or equal to 30%.
Thanks for the idea Rizz. Looks interesting at first blush. Not sure why they are projecting only 73-78 million revenue for 2018. Must be ramp up time for their new sales hires. The way they talk about biopsies converting to revenue growth makes me think that they should beat their own projections pretty handily. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if 2018 turns out to be slightly underwhelming since they are increasing their salesforce by almost 100%. Expenses will take a jump before revenues do.
on the surface MACI looks like it should have a huge TAM although they have a fairly limited indication at the moment. Hopefully they will get to expand their indication from just knees in <55 year olds. I’d guess they go after an expanded age range and then other joints. Does anyone know of any competitors in the knee cartilage field?
Epicel they estimate has captured about 15-20% of their TAM. Doesn’t seem like they have near the growth opportunity here.
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0363546518756976…
conclusion Symptomatic cartilage knee defects 3 cm2 or larger treated with MACI were clinically and statistically significantly improved at 5 years compared with microfracture treatment. No remarkable adverse events or safety issues were noted in this heterogeneous patient population.
Joints just tend to wear out. I suspect some of today’s “fitness” sports will increase that effect.
Reading the Seeking Alpha article you posted, there does not appear to be any competition at this time on the market. Another competitor (no idea who they are or what their product is) is in Phase 3 right now, but won’t make it to market for two years.
The forecast for next year as mentioned above is pretty baffling. I believe they are ramping from 28 to 40 sales territories. They are only forecasting 21% growth on the high end. I would think the existing territories could provide that type of growth as the technology gains mindshare. So, kind of baffled there.
P/S is a bit above 5.
What are the risks outside of liquidity and volatility?
Finally, the comments in the Seeking Alpha article Rizz posted were interesting and there was a video linked in one of the to at local news story about MACI (knee cartilage replacement). Worth checking out for an idea of what the technology is all about.