10 year Treasury yield gaps down

I’m not going to do a Control Panel now but I couldn’t help peeking. It looks volatile, as I predicted.




The 10 year Treasury yield gapped down today. Investors all over the world buy the 10YT when they are fearful and crave safety.

This is going to make it harder for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. But looking on the bright side, maybe this is the best time to sell some of their bloated book since the market will soak it up like a sponge without raising rates.




The market is 98% sure of a 25 bps Fed hike on March 16th. With inflation at 40-year highs, and the Fed’s creditability on the line, I think a 50-bps hike is possible. This would shock the market, and maybe burst any bubbles out there, and so have an outsized effect on inflation.

The Taper is still tapering, with the FED buying more debt in February.

Treasury bonds: +$5 billion this week.
Mortgage securities: +$34 billion this week.
Total: +$27 billion this week.
Release Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
These data are released each Thursday, generally at 4:30 p.m

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There’s a war and associated energy shock going on. They’re not doing 50 bps at once right now.